Brexit at 10: 'Without the UK on board, the EU has integrated more'

Ten years after Britons voted to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom is more divided, less economically dynamic and no more influential on the global stage than Brexit supporters once promised. But for the EU, the consequences of the its departure may not have been entirely negative, says Federico Fabbrini of dedicated research centre, the Brexit Institute.

"The project empirically proved to be a failure. Economically, socially, politically, the UK is worse off," says Federico Fabbrini, founding director of the Brexit Institute and a professor of law at Dublin City University.

The EU Referendum of 23 June, 2016 was sold by Leave activists as a break with Brussels and a chance to restore British sovereignty.

But, according to research published by the Dublin-based Brexit Institute, it has left the UK dealing with slower growth, weaker trade, political frustration and an unresolved debate about its place in Europe.

The EU, meanwhile, has emerged more united than before in some respects, Fabbrini argues, with unprecedented joint borrowing through the NextGenerationEU recovery fund, a coordinated sanctions policy and renewed momentum on defence cooperation and energy policy – areas where divisions had previously been more pronounced.

“Without the United Kingdom at the table, the EU has moved forward and integrated more than what could have been expected,” Fabbrini says.

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The UK's post-Brexit referendum prime ministers

David Cameron 11 May, 2010 to 13 July, 2016: 2,255 days. Called and won approval for the 2016 EU referendum, but resigned after the vote to leave the EU.

Theresa May 13 July, 2016 to 24 July, 2019: 1,106 days. Negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement but failed to secure parliamentary approval for her Brexit deal.

Boris Johnson 24 July, 2019 to 6 September, 2022: 1,140 days. Revised May’s deal, secured its passage and formally took the UK out of the EU in January 2020.

Liz Truss 6 September, 2022 to 25 October, 2022: 49 days. Brexit played little role during her brief premiership, which was dominated by economic turmoil.

Rishi Sunak 25 October, 2022 to 5 July, 2024: 619 days. Pursued a more pragmatic post-Brexit relationship with the EU, notably through the Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland.

Keir Starmer 5 July, 2024 to 22 June, 2026: 717 days. Sought closer cooperation with the EU while ruling out rejoining the Single Market or Customs Union. Resigned on 22 June, opening up a Labour Party leadership contest widely expected to be won by Andy Burnham, former mayor of Manchester.

A changed world

The Brexit vote reflected wider political currents that have since reshaped Western democracies.

According to Fabbrini, the result “anticipated” the rise of populism seen elsewhere in the world, from the UK's urban-rural divide to the politics that would later carry Donald Trump back to the White House.

But he told RFI that the deeper problem was strategic: Brexit was built on faith in globalisation and the idea that a mid-sized country could thrive alone.

That world, he says, "no longer exists".

"The global system has moved much more in the direction of a world governed by force rather than by rules and international institutions,” Fabbrini says.

In that context, the promise of “Global Britain” – the post-Brexit foreign policy slogan for a more outward-looking, globally engaged UK, introduced by Theresa May in 2016 – rings increasingly hollow.

“Global Britain evaporated like snow in the sun,” says Fabbrini, noting that the UK has not secured the kind of independent global role many Brexiteers imagined.

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The economic evidence has steadily reinforced that judgement. A recent study by UK in a Changing Europe, a think tank affiliated with London's King’s College London, found that Brexit has left the UK trading below the trajectory it might otherwise have followed, especially with the EU.

It argued that Brexit has reduced productivity, lowered GDP and damaged investment. It also points to labour shortages linked to reduced EU migration.

“All economic indicators report that the UK actually lost competitiveness and productivity as a result of Brexit,” echoes Fabbrini. The UK now attracts less foreign direct investment, faces shortages in key sectors and has seen the appeal of its universities weaken.

Public opinion has shifted accordingly. In an Ipsos poll published earlier this month, 52 percent of Britons said the UK should apply to rejoin the EU, compared with 33 percent who wanted it to remain outside the bloc. Separate polling reported by The Guardian also found that a majority backed rejoining rather than simply seeking closer ties.

Fabbrini says that is not surprising. “Economically, socially, politically, the UK is worse off,” he says. “If British people were asked, a majority would reconsider its decision.”

The rise of Farage

The political aftershocks are still being felt. Nigel Farage remains a major force, in part because migration continues to dominate British politics.

Farage's Reform UK party has translated this into a strong showing in the May 2026 English local elections, winning more than 1,400 councillors and taking control of 14 councils. In national elections to devolved parliaments that took place on the same day, it also won 34 seats in Wales and 17 in Scotland.

"I believe the issue that has kept Farage at the top of the political conversation in Britain is really migration, which was one of the factors driving Brexit," says Fabbrini. "There was a nativist anti-immigrant streak in the Brexit vote that I think was very strong.”

For the UK, Brexit was a defeat. Economically, socially, politically, the UK is worse off.

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REMARKS by Federico Fabbrini, director of the Brexit Insitute

Jan van der Made

He adds that the current government’s reluctance to define a clear long-term relationship with the EU has also helped keep Farage and his party relevant.

"The hesitancy of Prime Minister [Keir] Starmer in reopening a negotiation and trying to bring the United Kingdom back closer to the EU paradoxically is strengthening the arguments for Farage," he told RFI.

"If Labour had moved Britain back closer to the EU, economic growth would have returned, certainly to a greater degree than what we see now. And that would have taken away some of the wind from Farage's sails."

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EU unity

For the EU Brexit was a shock, but not the crisis many feared.

"The EU transformed what was an existential crisis into yet another of the problems that it manages through technocratic processes," according to Fabbrini. "So in a way, it slightly depoliticised the issue."

In fact, he argues, Brexit was "an opportunity for the EU because Britain had become an awkward partner".

"[The UK] had created obstacles to European integration scenarios like fiscal affairs and defence. And without the Eurosceptic UK on board, the EU has moved forward and integrated more than could have been expected in areas like Next Generation EU [an economy-boosting program initially put in place to tackle Covid-related issues] or defence," he said.

"Without the UK, it was easier for the EU to advance in defence related domains, like the PESCO cooperation on defence and the SAFE fund. The absence of the UK has facilitated things for the EU."

Before Brexit, the UK had often blocked deeper EU defence integration, including a permanent military headquarters and wider moves toward stronger common defence structures, arguing that they would duplicate NATO and undermine national sovereignty.

Ultimately, he believes Brexit may also have strengthened the EU's coherence. "There was a fear back in 2016 that Brexit would create a domino effect," says Fabbrini.

"But that discussion about leaving has disappeared in France, in the Netherlands, in Germany or anywhere else. Everybody saw how bad Brexit was for the United Kingdom, and nobody wants to repeat it."