Live: ASX set to edge higher ahead of jobs data, oil slides

Wall St had a mixed session with tech stocks continuing to fall, although chip maker Micron shot the lights out with a strong post close release of quarterly results.

Oil, gold and Bitcoin all fell overnight, but futures trading is pointing to the ASX making a marginal gain on opening.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:12am

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:12am

Market snapshot

By Stephen Letts

ASX 200 futures: +0.2% to 8,810 points

ASX 200 (Wednesday): +0.2% to 8,808 points

Australian dollar: -0.2% to 69.00 US cents

Wall Street: S&P 500 -0.1% Dow +0.4% Nasdaq -0.4$

Europe: Dax -0.6%, FTSE +0.3%, Eurostoxx -0.3%

Spot gold: -2.7% to $US3,997/ounce

Oil: Brent futures -5.1% to $US73.17/barrel, WTI futures -4.6% to $US69.85/barrel

Iron ore (Wednesday): +1.3% to $US98.65/tonne

Copper (LME): -2.0% to $US13,375/tonne

Bitcoin: -2.4% at $US60,864

Prices current at around 7:00am AEST

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Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 8:22am

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 8:22am

a2 Milk announces $246 million special dividend

By Stephen Letts

NZ dairy supplier and ASX listed a2 Milk has confirmed it will give its shareholders a special fully franked $NZ300 million ($A246 million) dividend.

The move was widely expected after the company received approval from Chinese authorities to rebrand tow of its baby infant formulas in the key market.

"With the necessary China regulatory approvals now in place, the Board is pleased to declare a $300 million special dividend," a2 Chair Pip Greenwood said in a NSX/ASX release.

""This reflects our commitment to delivering shareholder returns while maintaining disciplined capital management."

The company will pay the fully franked 41.36 NZ cents per share dividend (33.84 Aus cents) on July 24.

Key Event

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 8:07am

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 8:07am

Oil prices heads back to pre-war levels as supply picks up

By Stephen Letts

The benchmark global oil price declined more than $US3 on Wednesday to settle at its lowest level since before the start of the Iran war as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent touched a low of $73.12, its weakest since February 27, the day before US-Israel strikes on Iran, while US crude futures slipped below $70 a barrel for the first time since March 2.

According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, seven oil tankers were either in the strait or had already crossed it on Tuesday.

Overnight, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said crude oil flows were now similar to what they were before the start of the war.

But that seems a bit of a stretch, given that more than 135 vessels transited the key waterway in February on a daily basis.

"The oil market is also continuing to rely on inventories to plug the gap from supply shortages," ANZ's commodities analyst Daniel Hynes wrote in a morning note.

"US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6,088kbbls last week. Combined with a drawdown of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 9,060kbbls, total inventories are now at their lowest level since 1984.

"Levels are so low at Cushing, the main storage hub in the US, that traders are concerned that some companies will be forced to take tanks out of service due to risks of collapse."

Reuters noted physical crude oil cargoes were selling at discounts across the globe, changing trade flows as markets come under pressure from fast-rising Middle Eastern supply with Iran set to boost sales following a temporary reprieve from US sanctions.

Prices for Brent crude for second-month delivery were also trading higher than prices for prompt delivery for the first time since the war, a sign of increased near-term supply.

"Positive signals from the Persian Gulf are fuelling optimism about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts wrote in a note.

"Vessel crossings increased in recent days, although they remain well below pre-war levels."

The US also authorized Iranian oil sales this week, easing decades-old sanctions as it ‌pushes toward a final peace deal with Tehran in return for commitments on nuclear inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Event

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:45am

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:45am

ASX set to rise ahead of jobs data, Wall St mixed as oil and gold fall

By Stephen Letts

It was a fairly busy night where sellers across an array of markets outnumbered the buyers.

Equities in the US and Europe were generally lower, although the blue-chip Dow advanced and the chip maker Micron leapt 10% in extended trading after releasing strong quarterly earnings.

S&P 500: -0.1% to 7,358 points

Dow: +0.4% to 51,849 points

Nasdaq: -0.4 to 25,477 points

Eurostoxx: 50 -0.3% to 663 points

Despite Micron's post-session good news, concerns around debt-backed spending by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon are evident, and mounting fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have fuelled the market downturn this week that has erased more than $US1 trillion in market value from the Nasdaq 100.

ASX 200 futures bounced around, but three hours before opening were up 0.2%.

Oil prices fell to their lowest point since the start of the Iran war as more tankers were expected to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures: -5.2% to $US73.11/barrel

WTI crude futures: -4.6% to $US69.81/barrel

Global bond yields rose after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant gave a speech in New York that was interpreted as giving the freshly minted Fed chair Kevin Warsh a green light to act independently of the White House's wishes for lower interest rates.

That saw the US dollar extend its gains and put more downward pressure on the Aussie dollar, which is now sitting at around 69 US cents.

Gold fell below $US4,000 an ounce to a seven-month low.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $US60,000 and is now down around 20% this month alone.

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:02am

Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:02am

Good morning

By Stephen Letts

Good morning and welcome to another day on the ABC markets and finance blog.

Stephen Letts from the ABC business team limbering up for a blow-by-blow coverage of the day's events, where every post is hopefully a winner, but none should be construed as financial advice.

Wall Street was a mixed bag overnight with the blue-chip Dow up 0.4% and the benchmark S&P 500 closing marginally lower.

The Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower, but that was before Micron released its strong quarterly results. The chip maker jumped around 10% in post-session trading.

The upshot is that at around 7:00am AEST, ASX 200 futures were up 0.2% having bounced around all night.

Coming up later this morning, we have the May Labour Force data with the consensus being that employment should pick up after a surprising contraction in April, and unemployment may edge down a notch to 4.4%

As always, the game's afoot, so let's get blogging.