Democrats see midterm opportunity in abortion ballot measures

Skip to content

Four states could have abortion ballot measures in November, giving Democrats an opportunity to push the issue back into the national spotlight and make life uncomfortable for Republicans.

Voter anger about abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 helped propel Democrats to a series of midterm victories that year.

But when then-Vice President Kamala Harris lost the White House despite prioritizing abortion messaging, and voters elected Republicans even in states with abortion ballot measures, the issue took a back seat to affordability, the economy and cost-of-living concerns.

However, a new round of ballot measures is creating an opening for Democrats — and what could be a political headache for the Trump administration and Republicans in tough races.

Democrats and abortion-rights activists believe that unlike in 2024, the abortion ballot measures this year will be able to boost turnout to other races, especially in battlegrounds like Nevada and Virginia.

“I think everybody can agree that this is a cost of living, affordability, economic cycle; but that doesn’t change the fact that Republicans are still out of step on the issue of abortion,” one Democratic strategist said.

Polls show that a majority of Americans, as much as 60 percent in some cases, think abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Activists said Democrats in all races should lean into that and hold Republicans’ feet to the fire on the issue.

“We believe Democrats should be talking about reproductive freedom and abortion access everywhere. It is one of the top issues that voters trust them on, which makes it a very immediate and compelling and important contrast. They do not trust Republicans on this,” said Mini Timmaraju, the president and CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All.

According to election analysts, abortion protection ballot measures in 2024 gave voters a sense of security that let them cast split tickets. They would vote in favor of a ballot measure, but then they would also vote for a Republican candidate because of affordability or some other economic issue, believing that abortion was safe.

“That is the danger of assuming that the ballot measure alone will address this issue for Democrats. Democrats still have to run on their policies, they can’t just rely on the ballot measure,” Timmaraju said.

Still, she said the ballot measures will put abortion back in the news and help explain to voters that the issue is not settled, which creates an easy opportunity for a Democratic candidate to link Republicans directly to the referendum.

Abortion protection measures will be on the ballot in Nevada and Virginia this year. Nevada has a tightly contested gubernatorial race, while Virginia is home to some of the most competitive House races and is a key state for Democrats hoping to flip control of the House.

“The abortion referendum in Virginia will help drive turnout further and create an opportunity to explicitly highlight how Republicans in key congressional races like Jen Kiggans, Rob Wittman and John McGuire don’t care about everyday Virginians and have spent years working to ban abortion with no exceptions,” said Eli Cousin, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In Virginia, House races and the abortion referendum are likely to be the top issues that bring people to vote. Younger voters especially have shown they are more likely to support abortion rights, so the measure will be an opportunity to get them to the polls as well.

Voters in Idaho may also get a chance to roll back the state’s strict abortion ban, as organizers say their measure has enough signatures to make it on the ballot. Missouri, meanwhile, will attempt to once again ban abortion by repealing a 2024 ballot measure.

But four years after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, abortion may not hold the same political heft in voters’ minds. They may support abortion rights but don’t see the same immediate threat as just after the decision.

“The biggest challenge for us is getting the information out. When folks hear and understand what’s happening, they will move in our direction, but they are not hearing any coverage of abortion rights crises in the news. They are not seeing evidence of it,” Timmaraju said.

Timmaraju’s group is investing $23.5 million this year to mobilize voters and flip key battleground districts by electing Democrats who support abortion rights, particularly in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, California and Georgia.

“The goal is to make sure voters understand that their opponents are extremists who care more about banning abortion than they do about addressing the economy and the health care access crisis in this country,” she said.

But while GOP strategists acknowledged the party’s general weakness on abortion, they don’t think it’s enough of an issue by itself to flip an election.

Robert Uithoven, a veteran Nevada GOP strategist, said voters settled the issue of abortion protections in the state in 1990. If Democrats try to make it a campaign issue, he said Republicans have an easy counter.

“Voters decided back in the early ’90s to make Nevada a pro-choice state, and no governor, no member of Congress, no senator, no state legislator, no mayor can change that. Only through a vote of the people can that change in Nevada,” Uithoven said.

He was also skeptical that abortion would be able to significantly boost Democratic turnout.

“You’ll see Democrats use abortion as a wedge issue in an election, but does it actually improve turnout for people who support those ballot measures? No, it does not,” Uithoven said.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican-turned-independent consultant in Arizona, pointed to the high number of split-ticket voters in Arizona in 2024 as evidence that abortion measures won’t juice turnout the way many on the left hope they will.

“I think it helps on the margins,” Coughlin said.

For Republicans in competitive districts, though, Coughlin said he would recommend they not engage with Democrats who attack them on abortion.

He suggested candidates talk about abiding by the will of the voters, because otherwise, it’s not an argument they can win.

“I can’t imagine dying on that hill as a Republican,” Coughlin said.

Tags

Donald Trump

Jen Kiggans

John McGuire

Kamala Harris

Mini Timmaraju

Rob Wittman

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.