‘Looming dangers’ under China-US ties: AI and rare earths reveal a fragile floor

Deep-seated structural rivalry and lingering regulatory barriers are likely to limit any thaw in China-US ties, even though last month’s summit put a temporary floor under the fragile relationship, an expert from China’s top state-affiliated think tank has warned.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Dalian on Thursday, Zhao Hai, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), struck a cautious note on the trajectory of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship, saying the calm remained fragile.

“I’m not that rosy about the future because the structural forces are still working,” said Zhao, director of the international politics programme at CASS’ National Institute for Global Strategy.

He pointed to “looming dangers” from tariffs, technology disruptions and investment restrictions that continued to cast a shadow over the relationship despite high-level diplomacy.

Last month, US President Donald Trump’s high-stakes visit to China produced few economic deliverables but he and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to build what Washington called a “constructive relationship of strategic stability”.

Even though the meeting restored some stability and helped ease pressure on supply chains, including aircraft engine deliveries, Zhao said it did little to resolve the deeper mismatch between how Washington and Beijing saw the relationship.

And while the Trump administration tended to frame ties in transactional terms, Xi approached the talks through a broader global, bilateral and people-to-people lens, Zhao said.

“At this stage, it’s no longer a pure bilateral relationship. It’s a global relationship,” Zhao said at the Dalian meeting, also known as the “Summer Davos”.