Is a Democrat-majority Senate a good bet in the midterms?

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

At first glance, the upcoming midterm elections seem more likely than not to result in a Republican-controlled Senate — at least, that’s what the polls and the pundits think. It’s not an overwhelming consensus, as most believe Republicans will only scrape by.

The betting markets disagree, but in a strange way. As of this writing, two of the most cited national ratings have the partisan balance in doubt. The Cook Political Report’s Senate ratings have Democrats gaining one seat, with three toss-up races (Maine, Michigan and Ohio), for a 49-48 lead for Republicans. RealClearPolitics is historically more cautious about calling races, and this midterm is no exception. It has eight toss-ups, but it has North Carolina leaning toward the Democrats.

Those ratings are good news for Democrats, as very rarely does the party out of power lose an incumbent or open seat to the party holding the White House. If that holds, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire will stay in the Democratic column. That would shift the RealClearPolitics map to 48 for the Democrats and 47 for the Republicans.

The polling points to a nail-biter of an election night. The RealClear polling averages have the Democratic candidate leading in North Carolina by nearly 7 points, in New Hampshire by close to 4 points and in Georgia by almost 3 points. After that, it gets very tricky. In Texas, the three polls taken since the primary have Ken Paxton (R) leading by 2 points, by 1 point and tied. Ohio is dead even, but that is due to one recent poll that had Democrat Sherrod Brown up 8 points. All previous polls had Republican Sen. Jon Husted leading. Until more polling comes in, Ohio is a toss-up.

Michigan Democrats may hand Republicans a big midterm gift if they nominate Abdul El-Sayed. In a state that has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate this century, El-Sayed is a dream opponent for former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

And then there is Maine. In what is shaping up to be a race that puts reality television to shame, Democrats have nominated newcomer Graham Platner — a man who makes the cast of “Honey Boo Boo“ look normal. Platner might not be the only Democrat who could lose to Republican Susan Collins, but he is on a short list. He leads in the RCP averages by 4.5 percent, but Collins, the ultimate survivor, has been here before.

In 2020, with an unpopular Donald Trump on the ballot (who lost by 9 points), Collins won by more than 8 points. And she did so despite trailing her opponent, Sara Gideon, in every poll — including the last Emerson poll, which had her down 6 points.

The last race of note is Alaska, a contest nobody is talking about. Cook has Alaska and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as lean-Republican, but there is no recent polling. Sullivan’s opponent is Mary Peltola, who was elected in 2022 to the state’s at-large congressional seat, only to lose it in 2024. The last poll tracked by RealClear had Peltola up 1 point, but that is a moldy seven months old. Peltola is surely the best candidate Democrats could nominate, but Republicans have a strong recent history of electoral success, even if some wins have been squeakers.

How are the betting markets seeing the race? “Schizophrenic” is the best description. The three main platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt , favor Republican Senate control. But if you look at each race individually, Democrats are favored to get to 51 seats.

Polymarket has the narrowest odds for Republicans, at 57 cents, whereas Kalshi is at 58 cents and PredictIt is at 60 cents.

Meanwhile, each betting market has Democrats winning Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio while holding Michigan. All the markets have prohibitive odds for Democratic wins in Georgia and North Carolina (over 80 cents, with a one dollar payout). None of the markets believes Rogers will win in Michigan.

In Alaska, the lack of polling leaves pundits flying blind, but bettors have loaded up on Peltola. Polymarket and Kalshi put her at 65 cents and 61 cents, respectively, to win. Ohio may look like a toss-up to Cook and RCP, but bettors are behind Brown at 57 cents (Kalshi) and 55 cents (Polymarket). In both Ohio and Alaska (and all seats), PredictIt is more Republican-friendly, but it still favors the Democrats.

As for Maine, bettors have forgotten all about 2020. The volatile oyster farmer is at 62 cents on Polymarket, 57 cents on Kalshi and 53 cents on PredictIt. In Texas, Paxton is nearly as strong a favorite as Platner is in Maine. Despite the narrow polling, he sits at 64 cents on PredictIt, 59 cents on Kalshi and 57 cents on Polymarket. Bettors may be wagering on history, as Texas has not voted for a Democrat since 1988 for the U.S. Senate.

There is one anomaly in the betting markets when it comes to partisan control. Polymarket closes its betting after the elections, while Kalshi closes on Feb. 1. That is critical if you believe, as I do, that Lisa Murkowski will switch parties if the Senate is tied after Election Day. For Kalshi, that means 50-50 should be off the table as a bet.

If you want to gamble on it, Democratic control is a decent bet, but hardly a lock. In the individual Senate races, Collins is a good bet as an underdog, and Rogers is probably also undervalued. With democratic socialists feeling their momentum, they are likely to go all out for El-Sayed, making Michigan a toss-up. Balancing the underdog Republicans is an overvalued Paxton. He is a legitimate favorite, but not at the prices on offer.

Keith Naughton, a longtime Republican political consultant, is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Republican political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.

Is a Democrat-majority Senate a good bet in the midterms?

Related stories

State police: Ex-lawmaker commends Tinubu, dismisses fears of abuse

'It's shaking!': inside Venezuelan airport struck by earthquake – video

‘Portugal poverty set to rise’ as low incomes ‘leave millions behind’

What America can learn from Europe’s asylum overhaul