Caglianone hits 40 homers? Contreras brothers hit ...

Eric KarabellJun 25, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

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Eric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments".

Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!

Don't be surprised ... if Kansas City Royals OF/1B Jac Caglianone hits 40 home runs this season

Well, this situation changed quickly! Caglianone, 23, has swiftly become the most added hitter in ESPN standard leagues, thanks to a recent power stretch in which he has blasted six home runs in five games. This comes after Caglianone had homered only five times during the first two months!

Still, it had become clear things were trending upward, with exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates among the league leaders, along with other positive factors such as far fewer ground balls and vastly improved work versus left-handed pitching. Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft chronicled Caglianone's potential breakout recently.

Caglianone remains available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues, though no hitter has scored more fantasy points over the past 15 days. Perhaps it took a rivalry series versus the cross-state St. Louis Cardinals to light the proverbial power fuse, as Caglianone homered in each of the three games in the series. He also homered twice off Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane McClanahan on Tuesday, including a 443-foot rocket in the first inning. The stingy McClanahan had entered play having permitted three home runs over 14 starts and 67 2/3 innings. Caglianone entered Wednesday hitting .373/.453/.773 during 20 June games (86 PA).

There was little concern that Caglianone, the No. 6 pick in the 2024 draft from Florida, would hit for power in the major leagues. Rather, making contact was the big issue. Caglianone hit .157 over 62 games and 232 PA as a quick-moving rookie, with only seven home runs. It felt like he was trying to avoid strikeouts, rather than showing off his prodigious power. Caglianone is striking out at an acceptable 29.2% rate this season, and the 6-foot-5, 250-pound slugger is hitting baseballs hard and with launch angle. It simply took time for everything to click.

Still, it may seem like a stretch to project a 40-home run campaign for a player who did not homer this season until his 20th game and had managed to hit eight home runs through 75 team games. Really, he's gonna hit 32 home runs in barely three months? Well, yeah, that's why it is a bold statement.

Caglianone seems to particularly enjoy hitting in the team's No. 3 lineup spot (.310/.356/.762 in 45 PA), and his numbers are also up when he plays first base (.282/.333/.744). Things should improve when awesome SS Bobby Witt Jr. (knee) returns to full health. Is it all coincidence? Just one awesome fortnight? Perhaps, but we recommend fantasy managers add Caglianone because this hard-hitting power profile is simply too good to ignore.

Don't be surprised ... if each of the Contreras brothers knocks in 100 runs this season

Both Milwaukee Brewers C William Contreras and Boston Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras are enjoying solid seasons for their teams and fantasy investors. William Contreras, a top 5 catcher on fantasy draft day and 28 years old, is not delivering similar power to prior seasons, but he is hitting .295 and on pace for 90 runs and 97 RBI. He is also projected for at least 600 plate appearances for the fourth consecutive season. Volume is critical in points formats. Contreras rarely strikes out and he plays virtually every day.

The bigger surprise is older brother Willson, who at 34 years old is enjoying his best season. Willson Contreras, in his second season not having to wear the tools of ignorance behind the plate, is hitting a career-high .281 with an .898 OPS, pacing for 34 home runs and 95 RBI. Perhaps comparisons to his younger brother aren't realistic. Willson Contreras is a career .259 hitter, and he has never knocked in more than 80 runs in a season. He is striking out at a 26.6% clip, more than double that of his brother. The power breakout is welcomed, especially for a Red Sox team at the bottom of the league in home runs.

Fantasy managers seem a bit slow to react to Willson Contreras, as he remains available in more than 60% of ESPN standard leagues. Don't read into that; ESPN leagues do not feature a corner infield spot, so myriad corner infielders remain unclaimed. Contreras entered Wednesday's games hitting .294/.378/.544 with nine home runs and 25 RBI since the start of May. He is on his way to his first season with 600 PA, and perhaps the last-place Red Sox trade him to a contender with a better lineup in July. If not, perhaps the return of OF Roman Anthony helps Contreras reach his first 100-RBI campaign. His younger brother may get there, too!

Don't be surprised ... if five Pittsburgh Pirates finish among the top 50 hitters in fantasy points

Not only have the Pirates failed to qualify for the playoffs since 2015 (nor won a playoff game since 2013), but their offense hasn't exactly been awesome for fantasy purposes for a while. Last season's Pirates averaged 3.6 runs per game, last in the major leagues. They hit 117 home runs, also last in baseball. The last time the Pirates finished above the league average for runs was in 2016. The Pirates set out to change this offseason, adding 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B/OF Ryan O'Hearn and DH Marcell Ozuna, and readying for the arrival of generational prospect SS Konnor Griffin.

Hey, it's working! The Pirates entered play Wednesday fifth in baseball in runs scored per game, and Lowe, O'Hearn and Griffin are only part of the reason (Ozuna has been terrible). OF Oneil Cruz was enjoying his best season before breaking his hand. OF Bryan Reynolds, for years a reliable fantasy asset, has bounced back after a rough 2025 campaign. He may score 100 runs. 1B Spencer Horwitz, a patient hitter with emerging power, has settled in as the leadoff option. The lineup has some depth, too. Former first-round pick Nick Gonzales is among the leaders in batting average and Endy Rodriguez is thriving at catcher.

Reynolds is among the top 10 hitters in fantasy points this season, thanks in part to his typical power and a career best walk rate, and the improved lineup around him is helping him to score runs at an excellent pace. Lowe may hit 40 home runs for the first time. They are rostered in most ESPN leagues, but Horwitz is available in 85% of leagues. Horwitz, a left-handed hitter with more walks than strikeouts, is no longer platooning. He is among the top 50 hitters in points leagues.

Cruz and Griffin are not currently among the top 50, but each possesses the skills and the time to get there. Cruz broke two bones in his left hand on a slide two weeks ago, interrupting a breakout campaign in which he was pacing to more than 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Perhaps he returns in a few weeks and still gets there. After hitting a dreadful .102 versus left-handed pitching last season with a .400 OPS, he is hitting .312 with a .868 OPS against lefties in 2026. His center field defense remains problematic, but he hits and runs. Jake Mangum has been a solid short-term replacement for the Pirates and fantasy managers.

Then there is Griffin, out with a forearm strain. He is hitting .270 for the season with 14 stolen bases in 51 games, hardly amazing stats, but this hardly tells the full story. Griffin, 20, hit .231/.290/.341 in March/April, and .306/.361/.459 in May. He may not win NL Rookie of the Year honors, but this is a pending generational star, and the big numbers may come soon when he delivers more power and plate discipline. Griffin is rostered in 44.3% of ESPN leagues. This figure will jump soon when he returns to active duty. These five Pirates, especially in concert with RHP Paul Skenes, can carry this team to an NL playoff spot.