New Caledonia’s political parties make final pitch to voters before campaigning ends

Campaigning in New Caledonia officially closes on Friday midnight, local time, two days ahead of election day on Sunday 28 June.

The poll will renew the members of New Caledonia's three provincial assemblies (North, South and the Loyalty Islands).

In the following days and well into July, the poll will then determine, on a proportional representation basis, the makeup of New Caledonia territorial Congress and based on that, the makeup of New Caledonia future "collegial" government and its president.

Over the past two weeks, campaigning has been intense from running party lists (a total of 23), both on social networks and during political rallies.

The two main blocks in New Caledonia, the pro-independence and those who want New Caledonia to remain a part of France) have been particularly active.

They are reiterating their respective positions:

The pro-independence UC-FLNKS is to continue to support the French Pacific territory's quick access to full sovereignty.

For the pro-France group (consisting of a coalition of Rassemblement, Les Loyalistes) it is to continue advocating for a French New Caledonia, based on the three referendums held between 2018 and 2021, all expressing a rejection of independence.

But this year, as New Caledonia's provincial elections were postponed three times since 2024 (the year they should have been held in normal circumstances, along the lines of a normal five-year term), the debate was also significantly marked by the dire economic and social situation following the May 2024 civil unrest and riots.

The political future of New Caledonia remains unresolved after five years of unsuccessful attempts through negotiations between pro-France, pro-independence and the French government.

And the population is mostly worried by bread and butter issues: unemployment (after hundred of businesses were destroyed as a result of the riots), the cost of living, and the resulting concerning situation especially in terms of health public service, education and transportation (air and sea connections between the main island, Grande Terre (and its capital Nouméa) and the rest of the archipelago (especially the Loyalty Islands group).

Between the two blocks, this election has seen an unprecedented number of candidates running under a non-partisan label, whether they choose to call themselves non-partisan or just representatives of the civil society.

This week, major parties have also held their final rallies.

Regarding the Southern province, which concentrates a large majority of New Caledonia's population and wealth, a two-hour television debate took place on national broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie La Première, in presence of five of the major contender lists.

It was an opportunity for list leaders to confront their respective views on how to address the major issues at stake: economic recovery, assistance to affected businesses and the general population (especially in terms of health care), the sensitive issue of nickel mining and smelting (two of the three nickel smelters are currently inoperational) and the quest for further French assistance.

List leader Sonia Backès (who is the incumbent President of the Southern province) and her co-list Nicolas Metzdorf (who is one of the two representatives of New Caledonia at the French National Assembly) said their major objective, based on their united approach, was to achieve an absolute majority in the Southern Province.

Pro-independence UC-FLNKS sees this election as a way of bringing New Caledonia closer to its "Kanaky" fast independence process.

But this year, another list called "UNI" (Union Nationale pour l'Indépendance) is running separately after its two major components, PALIKA [Parti de Libération Kanak] and UPM [Union Progressiste en Mélanésie] moved away from FLNKS, citing profound differences on the approach to independence after the May 2024 unrest.

192,584 registered voters

For the whole of New Caledonia, the latest count shows a total of 192,584 voters registered on the "special" restricted electoral roll designed for those provincial elections, the French High Commission said.

In the Southern province alone, the total is 127,474.

The largest number of voters is located in Nouméa (53,671 voters for 57 polling stations).

The capital's suburban cities of Dumbéa, Mont-Dore, are also significant (with respectively close to 30,000 and 19,293 registered voters).

In the other two provinces of New Caledonia (North and Loyalty Islands), there are respectively 43,016 and 22,094 registered voters under the same "special" list.

"Sudden death" clause

But based on the number of registered voters, election day, for some parties, will also determine, based on the support received by each list, whether they pass or not the required threshold to sit at one of the provincial assemblies and at the Congress.

In the Southern province, the threshold is a minimum of 6,374 votes.

In the Northern province, the threshold is 2,151 votes.

In the Loyalty Islands province, the threshold is 1,105 votes.

If any of the running lists fails to reach the required threshold, it will not be considered and automatically discarded.

With a backdrop of defiance and mistrust towards political parties, another major question mark will be, on Sunday, the participation rate of voters.

After the vote: negotiations in France?

New Caledonia's elections, which will significantly redefine the French Pacific territory's political chessboard at several levels, is also perceived as the starting point of yet another round of political negotiations with France.

Earlier this year, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, after talks with local political parties on the continuation of discussions about New Caledonia's future, said he had obtained commitment from all parties that they would re-engage in talks with the French government, possibly in July, to finalise a project on New Caledonia's future status.

The previous version (which was proposing to create a "State of New Caledonia" within the French realm) was rejected by the French Parliament.

But the pro-France camp has once again reiterated that just as this was one of the main themes of their campaign, they would not budge from their current stance, that is to defend and uphold the results of the three recent referendums (thee consultations of three rejections of independence).

They however said they were willing to take part in the proposed talks with France, even though they had serious doubts as to whether they could produce a conclusive and consensual agreement before the French presidential elections (in April 2027).

The only tangible result, in a form of compromise, was endorsed by the French Parliament a few weeks ago: it agreed to partially "unfreeze" the restricted list of voters for the 28 June provincial elections.

This consisted in allowing people (over 10,000) who were born in New Caledonia since November 1998, and who had since reached voting age, to finally cast their votes at the crucial local elections.