When geography is destiny, Gulf states must diversify their defence, expert says in Dalian

The Gulf states should prioritise diverse defences and domestic capability-building to hedge against uncertain US commitments and volatility in the Middle East, according to an expert at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Dalian in northeastern China this week.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said on Wednesday that regional governments remained deeply reliant on the United States for security but were increasingly uneasy about Washington’s long-term strategy.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge during a visit to the region in May last year that Washington would not pursue regime change, the administration instead adopted a “regime change-light strategy” that proved destabilising, according to Vakil.

Vakil said that while the region faced a “very uncomfortable moment” amid uncertain US policy and a more pragmatic yet still unpredictable Iran, the Gulf states had to help shape the outcome of this war as well, and not just outsource it to the Trump administration.

“The strategy going forward … is to diversify their defence relationships to build up their capabilities over the short and medium term, but also to continue managing the diplomatic track,” she said. “Geography is their destiny.”

Her remarks come as Washington and Tehran strive to realise lasting peace following more than 100 days of conflict.

Under a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed last week, the US and Iran have 60 days to work out a peace deal, including issues such as getting ships through the Strait of Hormuz and addressing the future of Iran’s highly enriched uranium.

The timeline has drawn scepticism, especially compared with the 18 months required to conclude the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – which was reached under the Obama administration and subsequently dismantled during Trump’s first term.