Luther Burden III among 11 players who will score ...

Mike ClayJun 26, 2026, 08:11 AM ET

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Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.

Editor's Note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.

Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 178 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 178, 118 (66.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season.

Focusing in on the 48 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 39 (81.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 16 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 15 (93.7%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WR Danny Amendola (2018-19) was the lone exception.

Last season, 23 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, including the following players who were held under three scores: Rashid Shaheed (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Luther Burden III (2), Justin Jefferson (2), Jerry Jeudy (2), Xavier Worthy (1), Cade Otton (1) and Evan Engram (1).

We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 21 instances in which a back failed to reach six touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 21, 18 (or 85.7%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown total was 9.3!

In 2024, two RBs fell short of six TDs on 200-plus touches and went on to rack up 200 touches in 2025: Tony Pollard (5 to 5) and Rico Dowdle (5 to 7).

Last season, six RBs were held under six TDs on 200-plus touches: Breece Hall (5), Woody Marks (5), Pollard (5), Kenneth Walker III (5), Bucky Irving (4) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (4).

If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.

In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

A careful examination of each of the below player's 2025 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.

Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

2025 TDs: 2

2026 projected TDs: 7

The combination of Minnesota's quarterback woes and bad luck near the end zone resulted in 2025 being the worst season of Jefferson's career. The star receiver found the end zone only twice despite seeing 15 end zone targets (fourth most in the NFL) and posting an expected TD total of 8.1 (fifth among WRs). Kyler Murray isn't best case scenario for a wide receiver's upside, but he's good enough to get Jefferson back into the 7-10 TD range he was in during his four full pro seasons.

Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears

2025 TDs: 2

2026 projected TDs: 6

As noted earlier, players who score fewer than three touchdowns on 50-plus touches tend to see a boost in Year 2. Burden fits that bill (53 touches as a rookie) and, while he's a near lock for more touches in Year 2, he's going to need a big boost in usage near the goal line. Burden handled only one end zone target and his 1.2 xTD ranked 115th among receivers during the regular season. DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus combined for nine TDs, 15 end zone targets and an 8.6 xTD last season -- and both are no longer with the team, so there's certainly growth opportunity here.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

2025 TDs: 5

2026 projected TDs: 10

A touchdown machine in college, Hall scored five TDs on 99 touches as a rookie (seven games), nine TDs on 299 touches in 2023 and eight TDs on 266 touches in 2024. He followed all that success with just five TDs on 279 touches in 2025. Hall was limited to only two carries inside the opponent's 5 yard line (56th among RBs) and an expected TD total of 5.0 (39th). Assuming the New York offense is a bit better with Geno Smith under center, 25-year-old Hall could push for a career high in scoring in 2026.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

2025 TDs: 5

2026 projected TDs: 11

If we include the playoffs, Walker has scored between 8-10 touchdowns during each of his four NFL seasons. That includes last season, though only five of his nine scores came during the regular season, much of which was spent behind primary Seattle goal line back Zach Charbonnet (Charbonnet had 12 TDs and 16 carries inside the 5, compared to Walker's 5 TDs and seven carries inside the 5 during the regular season). Walker has a clearer path to goal line work as Kansas City's feature back and he has plenty of experience in that role (his 40 carries inside the 5 since he was drafted in 2022 ranks 10th among RBs).

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2025 TDs: 4

2026 projected TDs: 8

After scoring eight rushing and zero receiving touchdowns on 254 touches as a rookie in 2024 (17 games), Irving plummeted to one rushing and three receiving touchdowns on 203 touches in 2025 (10 games). Irving registered 12 carries inside the 5 as a rookie (12th among RBs), but had zero last season, with Sean Tucker (8 TDs, 6.7 xTD, 9 Inside5) and Rachaad White (4 TDs, 6.5 xTD, 8 Inside5) taking on more of the goal line work. A healthy Irving remains Tampa Bay's lead back and that should lead to a moderate scoring boost, but his ceiling is limited a bit with Tucker back and Kenny Gainwell (eight TDs in Pittsburgh last season) brought in to replace White.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

2025 TDs: 3

2026 projected TDs: 9

After scoring six-plus touchdowns during each of his first five NFL seasons (8.2 average), Lamb plummeted to three in 2025. Bad luck is mostly to blame here, as Lamb handled 11 end zone targets (ninth among WRs and actually up from the 10 he saw in 2024) and posted a 6.6 xTD. Lamb is a near lock for a rebound and we know he has big upside in the scoring department considering that he scored 14 touchdowns and handled 20 end zone targets in 2023.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

2025 TDs: 0

2026 projected TDs: 4

It feels like cheating when I include a player who failed to score a single touchdown, but Pearsall is worth a look considering he holds the unfortunate distinction of having the most targets (53) among all players who failed to score a single TD last season. Pearsall failed to haul in any of his four end zone targets and his 2.2 xTD suggests he should've found the end zone a few times. Pearsall, who scored three times on 46 targets as a rookie, won't be Brock Purdy's first read near the goal line (hello, Mike Evans), but he'll get enough run to allow a handful of scores.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

2025 TDs: 0

2026 projected TDs: 5

Once again, it feels like I'm cheating here, but, same as Pearsall, Golden was a bit unlucky in this area last season and is in a much better position in Year 2. A situational player most of his rookie campaign, the 2025 first-round pick was limited to two end zone targets and also failed to score on any of his 10 carries (none were within 15 yards of the goal line). For what it's worth, Golden did score in his lone playoff appearance.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

2025 TDs: 1

2026 projected TDs: 5

Worthy scored nine touchdowns (six receiving, three rushing) on 79 touches as a rookie, but a fluky Week 1 injury last season kicked off a very disappointing campaign in which he found the end zone just once on 53 touches. Worthy's end zone targets plummeted from seven in 2024 to two in 2025 and his xTD fell from 6.5 to 2.8. Worthy is on the small side and was a bit over his head in the TD department as a rookie, so it's unlikely he'll push for double-digit scores most seasons, but he's now healthy and remains a primary target in a good Chiefs offense.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seattle Seahawks

2025 TDs: 2

2026 projected TDs: 4

Shaheed scored a pair of offensive touchdowns during Weeks 1-5 last season (both with the Saints), but failed to add to that total during the rest of the season, including the playoffs. He was limited to four end zone targets, but his 3.8 xTD suggests he should have about doubled his TD total. The big-play machine has yet to clear five TDs in a single season, though 2025 marked the first time he finished a season top-50 among receivers in touches (25th with 68). Shaheed received a substantial contract extension during the offseason and is a good bet for a larger offensive role this season opposite Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2025 TDs: 5

2026 projected TDs: 12

This exercise focuses almost exclusively on players who were unlucky in the scoring department the year prior, but Hampton deserves a mention after scoring on five of 156 touches in nine games as a rookie. Hampton's expected total (4.7) aligns with his output, but note that he was responsible for five of the team's seven carries inside the opponent's 5 yard line during the nine regular season weeks he was active. Especially with undersized Keaton Mitchell as his likely running mate this season, Hampton should handle most of the team's goal line work and has tremendous TD upside.

Others: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns; Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos; Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans; Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars