Russia preparing ‘provocation’ against Poland or Baltic States to test NATO: Report

3 min readUpdated: Jun 26, 2026 09:20 PM IST

Russian President Vladimir Putin (AP Photo)

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, sources cited by the Guardian have said that Moscow may now be preparing a possible “provocation” involving the Baltic states or Poland to test the cohesion of the NATO alliance. According to the report, the potential move comes amid Ukraine’s long-range strikes on targets closer to Moscow and St Petersburg, adding pressure.

A Guardian report, quoting Latvian intelligence, said that there are indications of the Russian military preparing provocations against Baltic states or Poland.

“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland,” Latvian intelligence said.

NATO sources claims

Supporting the information, The Guardian reported that a senior political source from a second NATO member had earlier said, “We are picking up intelligence,” suggesting that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic state.” The source also said that any potential Russian move against the Baltic states or Poland will be a “desperate effort to throw the dice” as Moscow continues to face challenges in its invasion of Ukraine and seeks to test US support for NATO’s smaller member states.

Previously, Donald Trump said he felt “let down” after several European countries declined to allow US Air Force operations against Iran to be launched from their airfields. The NATO annual summit is set to be held in Ankara, Turkey, in July. Trump’s remarks come ahead of the annual summit.

NATO is set to hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, in July amid uncertainty about the US commitment to the alliance.

The Baltic states comprise Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of which are NATO members located along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea.

Story continues below this ad

Poland’s Prime Minister’s record of concern

Meanwhile, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the regional security situation remains highly uncertain. Speaking at a press conference, Tusk said, “We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.”

Tusk said that countries on NATO’s eastern flank “need to be prepared as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk.”

© IE Online Media Services Pvt Ltd

The Express Global Desk at indianexpress.com which delivers authoritative, verified, and context-driven coverage of key international developments shaping global politics, policy, and migration trends. The desk focuses on stories with direct relevance for Indian and global audiences, combining breaking news with in-depth explainers and analysis.

A major focus area of the desk is US immigration and visa policy, including developments related to student visas, work permits, permanent residency pathways, executive actions, and court rulings. The Global Desk also closely tracks Canada’s immigration, visa, and study policies, covering changes to study permits, post-study work options, permanent residence programmes, and regulatory updates affecting migrants and international students.

All reporting from the Global Desk adheres to The Indian Express’ editorial standards, relying on official data, government notifications, court documents, and on-record sources. The desk prioritises clarity, accuracy, and accountability, ensuring readers can navigate complex global systems with confidence.

Core Team

The Express Global Desk is led by a team of experienced journalists and editors with deep expertise in international affairs and migration policy:

Aniruddha Dhar – Senior Assistant Editor with extensive experience in global affairs, international politics, and editorial leadership.

Nischai Vats – Deputy Copy Editor specialising in US politics, US visa and immigration policy, and policy-driven international coverage.

Mashkoora Khan – Sub-editor focusing on global developments, with a strong emphasis on Canada visa, immigration, and study-related policy coverage. ... Read More

Stay updated with the latest - Click here to follow us on Instagram

Tags:

Russia Ukraine