Pro-France parties strong in New Caledonia's South Province; pro-independence side on top in North, Loyalty Islands

The one-round provincial election held on Sunday in New Caledonia has produced a few surprises, but essentially maintained the existing blocs between pro-independence and pro-France parties.

In the Southern Province (New Caledonia's most affluent and populated, including the capital Nouméa), provisional results show half the votes went to the "Strong and United" pro-France camp that brought together the Rassemblement, Les Loyalistes parties, headed by incumbent Southern Province president Sonia Backès.

Her list has obtained the support of 50.4 percent of the votes in the province, according to preliminary results on Sunday night, which should give it access to 28 seats in the Southern Province and 24 of the 54 seats in New Caledonia's territorial Congress.

Support for the Strong and United pro-France list was not only strong in the capital Nouméa, but also in its three surrounding cities of Mont-Dore, Dumbéa and Païta.

Speaking to a crowd of supporters on Sunday night, Backès, 50, hailed the results and her party's score, saying this was a way for voters to recognise what had been done during the past seven years, marked by several crises including the covid pandemic and the May 2024 riots.

"The non-independence voters have supported our list at a large majority and I think our choice for unity was important," she said.

"Also because we were carrying a clear message of support for a New Caledonia within France, as well as a society model we believe in, based on respect for democracy, of merit and equality for everyone."

Pro-independence Johanito Wamytan (Union Caledonienne-FLNKS) and his list have secured 15.5 percent of the votes, translating into seven seats, one more than during the previous mandate (2019-2026).

He is followed by Wallisian-based centre party Eveil Océanien's list ("Another World is Possible"), headed by Milakulo Tukumuli (10.3 percent).

In the Southern province, Eveil Océanien gained five seats - two more than during the previous provincial legislature.

This, once again, would place Eveil Océanien as a force to be reckoned with in both Southern Province assembly and the territorial congress, where the party, set up in 2019, has gained the nickname of "king maker".

Eveil Océanien leader Milakulo Tukumuli said with four expected seats at the Congress, he was pleased to see that his party has "confirmed its place in New Caledonia's political landscape".

Northern and Loyalty Islands provinces

Preliminary results in the north showed an almost equal score by the pro-independence parties, one being the UC-FLNKS, the other UNI (Union Nationale pour l'Indépendance).

The two parties list heads, Pascal Sawa (UC-FLNKS) and incumbent UNI-PALIKA Paul Néaoutyine (who has been heading the Northern Province for the past 27 years) have won 10 and nine seats respectively, with the last three seats being held by pro-France Vanessa Wacapo (Les Loyalistes-Rassemblement).

In the Loyalty Islands province, two lists headed by pro-independence Mickaël Forrest (UC-FLNKS) and Omayra Naisseline won six seats each in the small provincial assembly.

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The provincial elections results need to be officially proclaimed by the French High Commission this week.

The next step, as part of the "trickle down" effect of the poll, is for New Caledonia's new Congress to convene on Friday 3 July, with the first item on its inaugural agenda being the election of its Speaker (President).

Parties represented at the new Congress are expected to enter into negotiations in order to form alliances.

This would be followed by a process of appointment of a "collegial" cabinet which is also supposed to reflect the make-up of the local Parliament.

Low turnout rate

One of the main features of Sunday's provincial election was also the relatively low turnout rate (an estimated 58 percent of the 192,584 registered voters). This is eight percent less than during the previous poll in 2019.

Geopolitical analyst Pierre-Christophe Pantz told public broadcaster NC la Première during election night that "this was to be expected and this raises questions about the meaning of democracy".

Other experts also started to see in this low turnout a profound disinterest from voters.

University of New Caledonia law professor Mathias Chauchat said the trend was worrying, especially when combined with the "sudden death" five-percent threshold that automatically eliminates the smaller lists.

"We end up with a rule that at the end of the day crystallises the forces in presence, to produce a rather conservative and polarised result," Pantz said.

UC-FLNKS politician Alosio Sako said on Sunday night, during a TV live debate, "I hope [the poll results] will enable for a fresh start, to find a new agreement because [New] Caledonians are tired of having to go through this kind of situation".

Should the rules be changed?

Another compounding factor is that any list that does not collect at least five percent of registered voters is automatically eliminated during this single-round poll.

"This five-percent threshold rule was designed precisely to favour big blocs, to give them time to manage New Caledonia in the long term," Professor Chauchat said.

He said instead of discarding all these disqualified suffrages, it could be an idea to retain some of the ideas brought up during the campaign in favour of young seeds, based on the principle of participative democracy.

"If you look at it more closely, there are a lot of new ideas from all these emerging small lists.

"It's a shame that they only appear during election time and then disappear again, like shooting stars."

Former journalist and TV personality Wallès Kotra, who was heading one of those small lists, said he was concerned that the May 2024 riots and unrest would not repeat themselves.

"This has left many traces and fear within the population. And I hope it doesn't herald more crises," he said.

"We have to live together. And the two antagonist blocks, for them, it's time to find an agreement. We must take care of our country."