Official results confirmed for New Caledonia's provincial elections

The official results of New Caledonia's provincial elections held on Sunday have been proclaimed on Monday evening.

In a comprehensive document, the French High Commission in New Caledonia has published the key figures, which confirm the tendencies observed immediately after the vote on Sunday.

This includes the final makeup of New Caledonia's territorial Congress, which results from the proportional representation in the French Pacific territory's three provinces (North, South and the Loyalty Islands).

In the Southern province, which is New Caledonia's most populated and affluent region, the results confirm a clear victory for the "Strong and United" list made up of pro-France parties Les Loyalistes and Le Rassemblement.

Under outgoing provincial president Sonia Backès, they have reached 28 of the 40 seats and collected 50.4 percent of the suffrage.

Pro-independence list for FLNKS, headed by Johanito Wamytan, will get seven seats (15.59 percent of the votes).

Eveil Océanien's list (Another World is possible), headed by Milakulo Tukumuli, has five seats (10.2 percent).

In the Northern province, pro-independence UC-FLNKS (headed by Pascal Sawa) and Union Nationale pour l'Indépendance (UNI) headed by Paul Néaoutyine are neck-to-neck, with 10 and nine seats.

The remaining three seats go to the small list "Let's Act together for the North".

In the smallest province, the Loyalty Islands, seats are divided between pro-independence lists "Nation Autochtone [Indigenous Nation] and UC-FLNKS, respectively headed by Omaira Naisseline and Mickaël Forrest.

Another pro-independence party, the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) now holds the two remaining seats.

Congress and three provincial assemblies to elect their presidents

The three provincial assemblies are now scheduled to hold their inaugural sitting on Friday.

They will elect their respective presidents and their bureaux.

At the territorial level, the Congress is scheduled to hold its inaugural sitting on 10 July with, as the main item on its agenda, the election of its President and its bureau.

At New Caledonia's Congress, Loyalists-Rassemblement will have 24 of the 54 seats.

Eveil Océanien reaffirms itself as the main central block in New Caledonian's political chessboard: it has gained more seats (4) compared to the previous legislature (2019-2026).

This brings the Wallisian-based party, created in 2019, to position itself once again as the "kingmaker" of majorities, no dingle party in New Caledonia's Congress being in a position to rule on its own.

The pro-independence block can now rely on 16 seats from UC-FLNKS (the pro-independence movement's hard-line component), 7 from UNI-PALIKA and 3 from Dynamique Autochtone (Indigenous Dynamic).

Talks have started, behind the scenes, between parties, in order to form alliances ahead of the vote.

After the Congress President's election, a "collegial" government is to be formed, consisting of the allocation of ministerial portfolios on the basis of proportional representation.

Talks with Paris

Also based on the election of the new Congress, the French government is planning to resume talks with New Caledonia's politicians in order to finalise a consensual document that would serve as a blueprint for New Caledonia's political future.

Such talks, over the past five years, have failed to produce a result.

The most recent attempt, which materialised into a document called "Bougival Agreement" (in July 2025, followed by more negotiations under the name of "Matignon-Oudinot" in January 2026, was rejected by the French Parliament on 2 April 2026.

New Caledonia's main parties have already indicated their intentions, if they were to be convened for new talks by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

Whereas UC-FLNKS seems to favour a short-term process for New Caledonia's independence, UNI also promotes independence for New Caledonia, but in some kind of association with France.

UNI had pledged to support the Bougival process, which is now de facto defunct.

The Bougival process was one of the main fracturing factors within the pro-independence movement, especially between UC-FLNKS and UNI.

On the pro-France side, the approach is to consider that many concessions had already been made as part of the Bougival talks and that there were red lines they were not ready to cross.

They also insist (and it was one of the main topics raised during the provincial elections campaign) that New Caledonia has held three referendums on New Caledonia's independence and that these resulted (between 2018 and 2021) in three rejections of independence.

But pro-France MP at the French National Assembly Nicolas Metzdorf said at the weekend if they were called to sit at the negotiating table again, they would take part, but wouldn't budge from their anti-independence posture to defend New Caledonia remaining a part of France.

Another scenario was for New Caledonia's parties, especially pro-France, to refrain from entering any political agreement until the French Presidential (and general) elections are held, starting from April 2027.

"We'll wait for the Presidential elections... to make sure New Caledonia remains French", he told public broadcaster NC la Première on Monday.

Ahead of the Congress President's elections on 10 July, Metzdorf also confirmed that talks with other parties were to start "this week".

"It will be either with Eveil Océanien or with UNI, but we won't talk to UC-FLNKS."