GOP senators see Iran deal as potential pitfall for Vance in 2028

Republican senators see the conflict with Iran and the peace negotiations led by Vice President Vance as defining issues of the 2028 presidential primary, in which Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are considered the early front-runners.

While the deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been panned by Republican defense hawks as too lopsided in Iran’s favor, some GOP lawmakers say it could be an important win for Vance if he gets the United States out of a costly war and Iran relinquishes its nuclear ambitions.

But if Iran is able to impose tolls on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and amass tens of billions of dollars from oil exports while continuing to stockpile weapons-grade nuclear material and back militant proxies throughout the Middle East, the deal could become a major political liability for Vance, GOP lawmakers warn.

One Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on Vance’s role in putting together the deal said that the prospect of tens of billions of dollars going to Iran would become a major political problem in the future if Iran continues to support Hezbollah and Hamas.

“All this money for Iran is going to be a real problem,” the senator said.

“He is being asked to sell it,” the lawmaker said of Vance’s role. “All the money in there for Iran, I just think that’s going to be tough. It’s a lot of money.”

The senator said Iran “is not trustworthy” and “has never adhered to an agreement yet,” reflecting broad skepticism in the GOP conference about getting a deal.

President Trump bluntly declared earlier this month that Vance would get the blame if the negotiations with Iran turned out poorly.

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump told reporters earlier this month. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”

Some Republican senators say that’s exactly right. If the deal flops, these GOP voices say, then Vance will be the fall guy.

“It wasn’t a joke,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said of Trump’s prediction that Vance would get the blame if negotiations with Iran don’t work out.

Cornyn, however, pointed out that Vance is taking on a herculean task on behalf of the administration because Trump thought that the conflict with Iran would prove to be a major political liability for Republicans in the midterm elections.

“My sense is the president was concerned about the midterm election and gas prices and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, so this gets that open, but I think he’s had to pay a very dear price to get that done,” Cornyn said. “I think we should be clear-eyed and realistic that this isn’t going to persuade the Iranian regime to go in peace.”

Cornyn said he thought that Trump’s statement about the Iran talks and Vance reflects the reality that a bad outcome could haunt the vice president in the run-up to 2028.

GOP senators noted that Vance’s main rival for the nomination in 2028, Rubio, has kept his distance from the controversial memorandum of understanding (MOU) negotiated with Iran as well as the ongoing peace talks.

Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and a close adviser, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, are scheduled to hold talks Tuesday in Qatar.

The 60-day ceasefire appears to be on shaky ground after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over four days beginning Thursday. Iran hit two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and the United States answered with strikes on Iranian targets.

Cornyn, a senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, declined to comment on Rubio keeping his distance from the talks, which has clear implications for a potential presidential run in two years.

“I’m not going to give Secretary Rubio for advice,” said Cornyn, a colleague of Rubio’s before he left his seat representing Florida in the Senate for the Trump administration.

“He works for the president, I assume that’s the president’s choice” to have Vance take the lead in defending the peace deal with members of Congress and foreign allies, Cornyn said.

“I suspect there was not unanimity among the Cabinet on what happened,” he added.

Rubio said in December he would defer to Vance for the GOP presidential nomination in 2028 if the vice president runs — but such denials of ambition for higher office aren’t unusual in presidential politics.

One of Vance’s biggest potential rivals for the GOP nomination in 2028, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), has been outspoken in blasting the deal — citing his concern about funneling tens of billions of dollars to Iran while it remains a leading state sponsor of terrorism.

“History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal,” Cruz told The Hill earlier this month.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,262 U.S. adults nationwide conducted this month found that just 1 in 4 Americans said the conflict with Iran was worth the cost, and most respondents said a peace deal with Iran is unlikely to last.

Key MAGA influencers, such as Laura Loomer, have warned an Iran peace deal could have major implications in 2028.

“In 2028, I won’t vote for a GOP candidate who tries to normalize Islam. I don’t care how much they are shoved down our throats. I will not vote for anyone unless they take a hardline stance on Islam like Trump did when he ran,” Loomer posted recently on social platform X.

A second GOP senator who requested anonymity to discuss Vance’s future said many Republican voters wanted to see a quick end to the conflict.

The senator said there’s “all this jockeying with Rubio” and warned the deal “could turn out very bad.”

But the senator said the peace deal also gives Rubio a defining issue heading into 2028.

“Maybe he’s setting himself up to go back to his original argument” that the United States has become overextended in foreign conflicts and needs to focus on the greater national security threat, China, the lawmaker said.

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) told MS NOW that Vance has a lot riding on the negotiations with Iran.

“There’s a chance he can become the fall guy, a chance he could become the hero,” he said.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Vance is doing his job, which is to “go sell” the deal.

“JD’s the president’s vice president and the vice president is supposed to support the president,” he said.

“I understand all the speculation and concern, but I think we need to give peace a chance,” he added.

The 60-day ceasefire has been shaky, with the United States and Iran trading strikes in recent days.

Kennedy, however, expressed skepticism that Iran would agree to a lasting deal under which it gives up its nuclear enrichment program.

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