Texas Senate race a toss-up: Survey

The Texas Senate race appears to be a toss-up between Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), according to a new survey.

The New York Times/Siena poll, released Monday, found the two candidates virtually tied at 47 percent support among likely voters in the Lone Star State.

The numbers show around 94 percent of Democratic voters back Talarico and 91 percent of Republican voters back Paxton. About 58 percent of independents say they back the Democratic hopeful while 31 percent put their support behind the attorney general, the numbers show.

Another 13 percent say they prefer another candidate, according to the poll.

This loosely remains the same among 2024 presidential election voters. Roughly 95 percent of Texans who voted for former Vice President Harris say they would vote for Talarico, while 87 percent of voters who chose President Trump say they would vote for Paxton, the pollsters noted.

Of those who did not vote in the last presidential election, 48 percent support the state lawmaker compared to 29 percent who back Paxton. Only 5 percent of Republicans say they would choose Talarico while 3 percent of Democrats said the same about the GOP candidate, the poll found.

Talarico carries support mostly from Black voters, garnering 80 percent support to the Republican’s 13 percent. He also led 61 percent to 29 percent among Hispanic voters, according to the survey.

The Democratic candidate holds a slight edge among educated white voters when compared to the attorney general, with 49 percent to 48 percent, respectively. Paxton has the advantage among non-educated white voters, 68 percent to Talarico’s 27 percent, but this number is a reversal in favor of the state representative among non-white educated voters.

Another 63 percent of non-educated non-white voters say they’ll back the Texas Democrat, whereas 28 percent prefer the attorney general, the poll shows.

The results mirror another survey taken earlier this month by Texas Pulse, which found 46 percent of likely voters say they would vote for either candidate if the Senate election were held now.

Talarico won the state’s Democratic primary in March, culminating in a November showdown with Paxton to replace incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn after his loss to Paxton last month.

The GOP candidate has hurled nicknames and insults at Talarico, including one aimed at his masculinity, “Low-T Talarico.” President Trump, who endorsed Paxton, resurrected a comparison he previously used for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg during the 2020 presidential election for the Democratic candidate, calling him Alfred E. Neuman.

Talarico said he “had to look up what” his rival meant.

“I honestly get the sense that people across the spectrum, across the state are tired of this ‘politics as professional wrestling,’ right? You got these old guys lathered up in their fake tan, throwing corny nicknames at each other,” he told MS NOW’s Eugene Daniels earlier this month.

The Times/Siena survey was conducted June 19-27 and included 656 likely Texas voters. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

Texas Senate race a toss-up: Survey

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