Russia's fuel crisis: Is Putin under pressure?

For several months, Ukrainian forces have been targeting energy infrastructure in Russian regions and on the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula. Russian supply routes in the occupied territories, as well as key oil refineries inside Russia itself, have come under attack.

In June alone, refineries in Moscow, Nizhnekamsk, Tyumen and Volgograd were struck. In May, a total of 16 refineries were attacked. As a result, gasoline production has fallen by 25%, Reuters reported, citing its own sources. Russia is currently producing only 85,000 metric tons of gasoline per day, while summer demand stands at 110,000 metric tons per day.

"This summer, Russia appears to be heading toward what could be the worst fuel crisis in its history," experts at the US think tank Energy Intelligence said.

Putin acknowledges fuel shortages for the first time

On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged "certain fuel shortages" for the first time.

"There is some damage," he said in an interview on Russian state television, adding that all the damaged facilities are being repaired fairly quickly, and the problems are not critical.

"Putin was forced to openly admit that the problem exists," Zavadskaya, a political scientist at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told DW. "Most importantly, he identified the cause of the problem — Ukrainian drone attacks."

According to estimates by the Russian business outlet RBC, 40 Russian regions have already introduced restrictions on fuel sales. According to the independent Russian news outlet Vyorstka, which analyzed official information and eyewitness reports, as many as 78 regions may be affected. In many cities, long lines have formed at gas stations.

Christina Harward, an expert at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, DC, said Ukraine had already attempted to strike Russian refineries in 2025.

"What's different this year is that Ukraine has clearly scaled up the quantity of their drones and the quality of their drones. They've improved the range of their drones and, for the past couple of months, they've also been undertaking an effort to identify and destroy Russian air defense systems," Harward said.

Attacks on Russian military supply lines

At the same time, Ukrainian forces are trying to disrupt the Russian military's supply routes near the front line. According to Harward, the growing number of strikes on targets between 20 and 200 kilometers (up to around 120 miles) behind the front lines "is a new development from the Ukrainian side in this war."

She says there are increasing reports that supplies to the front are beginning to slow.

"We've seen reports that soldiers in the Huljajpole direction — east and west of the Zaporizhzhia region — are not getting as much fuel. They're not getting as much ammo. And they're not getting as much of all the other supplies they need," Harward said. She added that there are also mounting problems delivering artillery ammunition and even reconnaissance drones in the Donetsk region.

Harward also noted that the Crimean Bridge, which has recently come under repeated Ukrainian attack, is a key supply route not only for the Russian military but also for civilians on the occupied peninsula.

If the Ukrainians were able to destroy the bridge completely, "this would really cut off one of the main arteries that Russia has," she said.

What Putin's admission about fuel crisis means for Russia

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Occupied Crimea 'hard to keep resupplied'

A state of emergency has been in effect in occupied Crimea and the city of Sevastopol since June 26. The Russian-installed authorities imposed the measure after a series of Ukrainian attacks that caused fuel and food shortages on the peninsula.

According to British historian Mark Galeotti, Ukraine has identified Crimea as one of Russia's key vulnerabilities.

"It's very hard to keep resupplied. It's very hard to keep up with fuel and power and water and all the things it needs," the emeritus professor at University College London told DW. " And so they're hoping that by turning the screw on Crimea, they force Putin to begin to get serious about some kind of peace negotiations and peace negotiations on their terms."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the attacks on fuel depots and refineries as "long- and medium-term sanctions" intended to compel Moscow to come to the negotiating table.

At the same time, Galeotti said there is a risk that the campaign could prompt Putin to escalate the conflict.

"But that is the gamble that is currently dominating the view in Kyiv," he added.

Galeotti dismissed speculation that Ukraine is preparing to retake Crimea by military force, describing such claims as "more psychological warfare rather than real preparations."

"I think not only would that actually be very tough to do, it would also be the kind of thing that I think Putin would have to respond," he said. "It would be just too humiliating for him to have lost Crimea, which he regarded as the 'jewel in the crown' of his conquests."

From Ukraine's perspective, Galeotti said, "this is about pressure rather than conquest."

Can Putin be pressured into peace?

Asked what a possible Russian escalation might look like, Galeotti said Putin has several options.

"He could mobilise hundreds of thousands of extra reservists, even though it would be politically incredibly unpopular and disruptive. He's got about 150,000 conscripts that up to now he hasn't sent because again, it would be very unpopular," he said. "The nightmare scenario — that he might use tactical nuclear weapons  — I think is incredibly unlikely. But anyway, the point is he does have a range of options, but they're all self-harming options."

So how far is Putin going to go? Is Kyiv's strategy of forcing Russia toward peace producing the intended effect?

According to Galeotti, there is currently "no reason to think that the economy is going to collapse, or that the masses are going to rise up, or that there's going to be a coup or any of these other sort of extreme scenarios."

At the same time, however, he doubts Russia can sustain the war at its current intensity for much longer.

"Take it another year. And frankly, the damage being done to the Russian economy will be too great. So in those circumstances, there's a need to be at least thinking about alternatives," the expert said.

This article was originally published in Russian.