Amid ‘Operation Tiger’, MVA fuels buzz: Could Eknath Shinde’s rise checkmate Devendra Fadnavis?

A week after six Lok Sabha MPs of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) crossed over to the Shiv Sena led by Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, a senior Sena (UBT) MLC Sachin Ahir was elected unopposed to the Legislative Council Deputy Chairman’s post as a Shiv Sena candidate Wednesday.

A close aide of Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray, Ahir’s switch has dealt another blow to the Uddhav Sena while further boosting Shinde.

The defection of the rebel Uddhav Sena MPs has been dubbed “Operation Tiger” through which Shinde, 62, is seen to have consolidated his position both at the centre-stage of state politics and in the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti.

There is speculation now that Shinde’s “next target” could be a section of the Sena (UBT) MLAs. There are also talks in political circles whether the Operation Tiger has been executed just to help the BJP muster a two-thirds majority in Parliament in order to pass some key constitutional amendment Bills like those on delimitation and “one nation, one election”, or there could be more to it.

Even some Mahayuti insiders believe that Shinde’s increasing political heft may be a “tactical ploy” to keep Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, 55, under check in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

A senior state BJP functionary, requesting anonymity, said, “In a cadre-based party any final decision is taken through consensus. But for every leader, who is politically ambitious, it is natural to build his own support base. It happens in any party and BJP is not an exception.”

He said while the Operation Tiger involving the Uddhav Sena MPs was “cleared” by the BJP central leadership, “what remains unresolved is the question of defections at the state legislature level”.

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The BJP functionary also argued that “Shinde runs his own party, so he also has a right to expand his organisation keeping in sight the 2029 polls”, adding that “the BJP has also similarly ensured its expansion”.

Interestingly, Ahir’s defection came barely a couple of days after images of Fadnavis with Uddhav in a flight from Mumbai to Nagpur went viral, triggering political chatter.

Mahayuti play

A political manager of the state BJP said, “We are given to understand that Operation Tiger is for mustering requisite numbers for the passage of women quota and delimitation Bill in the Lok Sabha. How it impacts Maharashtra politics is a different issue. We are all watching the situation closely.”

BJP MLA Ashish Deshmukh urged the party leadership not to induct Opposition MLAs into the Mahayuti. “I welcome the Sena’s move to get Lok Sabha MPs as we need them for the passage of some important Bills. But why do we need the Opposition’s members in the Assembly and the Legislative Council,” he asked.

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The Mahayuti’s tally is 240 as against the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)’s 46 in the 288-member Assembly. In the 78-member Legislative Council, the Mahayuti accounts for 62 MLCs as against the MVA’s 12.

A Shinde Sena leader, however, said, “The Shiv Sena chief is a go-getter. He had been upset for being denied the CM’s post after the 2024 Assembly polls. Now, he is doing everything possible to get into the good books of the BJP high command,” adding that “Shinde still aspires for the top post, looking at the 2029 polls”.

Oppn’s claims

Targeting Shinde, the Opposition has alleged that “empowering” him further was part of an alleged plot to undermine Fadnavis’s leadership.

Aaditya Thackeray, Uddhav’s son, alleged: “It is not Operation Tiger but Operation Devendra Fadnavis. There is a clear plan to clip Fadnavis’s wings looking at the 2029 polls.”

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Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray called the flurry of defections “dirty politics”. He said the defectors were “not realising that they are setting a very dangerous trend”.

“The point is not about who is buying whom… If they are willingly allowing to sell themselves, less said the better,” the MNS chief said, claiming that “History has proved whenever attempts to wipe out enemies were made, they have emerged from their own ranks… Dissent is now surfacing within BJP”.

Shinde, Fadnavis ties

The relationship between key allies Fadnavis and Shinde has been turbulent over the years.

In the Fadnavis Cabinet in the NDA government during 2014-19, Shinde was a low-profile Sena minister.

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In 2019, then undivided Sena’s chief Uddhav broke up with the BJP to join hands with the Congress and NCP to form the MVA government and become the CM. However, in June 2022, Shinde revolted against Uddhav’s leadership and led a majority group of Sena MLAs to split the party and topple the MVA government.

The Shinde Sena then formed the government along with the BJP. Fadnavis was forced to accept Shinde in the CM’s position, agreeing to become his deputy.

However, their equations again changed after the 2024 Assembly elections, which saw the BJP bagging 132 seats as compared to the Sena’s 57 and another ally NCP’s 41 seats. This led to Fadnavis’s return as the CM, which however did not go down well with Shinde who had to take up the Deputy CM’s role.

Subsequently, Shinde had been in a sulk for a long time. The Sena camp still claims how it was the Shinde government’s flagship women dole scheme, Ladki Bahin Yojna, which powered the Mahayuti to victory in the Assembly elections, held barely six months after its debacle in the Lok Sabha polls.