Tropical storm set to form off Vietnam northern coast Friday morning

A tropical depression in the East Sea (South China Sea) is intensifying and is highly likely to reach storm strength by early Friday morning before heading toward the Gulf of Tonkin to bring strong winds and rough seas to Vietnam's northern region.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting located the center of the depression approximately 240 km east-northeast of the Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands at 7:00 a.m. on Thursday.

The system was moving west-northwest at roughly 25 kph, packing maximum sustained winds of 50-61 kph and gusts up to 75-88 kph.

By 7:00 a.m. on Friday, the depression is forecast to intensify into a storm over the waters southeast of China's Hainan Island. Wind speeds are expected to reach 61-88 kph, with gusts hitting 103-133 kph.

The storm, the first to form in Vietnam's waters this year, will continue its northwestern trajectory into the northern waters of the Gulf of Tonkin by Saturday morning, maintaining a sustained strength of 61-74 kph.

A predicted trajectory of a tropical depression in the East Sea. Graphic by Vietnam Disaster Monitoring System

International monitoring agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Hong Kong Observatory, have provided similar forecasts, anticipating the system will intensify into a storm Thursday night before steering toward the Gulf of Tonkin.

Under the influence of the developing storm, the northern East Sea, including the waters around the Hoang Sa Islands, will experience strong winds of 39-61 kph and waves ranging from two to four meters in height.

Since the beginning of the year, one tropical depression has formed in the East Sea without affecting Vietnam. Weather officials forecast that between June and August, the region will see around five storms and tropical depressions. This aligns with historical multi-year averages, with up to two expected to directly impact the Vietnamese mainland.

From September to December, the frequency of storms and tropical depressions is projected to fall below historical averages due to the influence of El Niño.

Despite this projected decline in overall storm frequency, the meteorological agency warned that the risks of localized heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides remain high. These hazards pose a particular threat to the mountainous regions of northern and central Vietnam.

In 2025, the East Sea recorded 21 storms and tropical depressions, marking the highest volume since record-keeping began in 1961. These natural disasters left 484 people dead or missing and caused over VND104.7 trillion (US$4 billion) in economic losses, making it one of Vietnam's costliest years on record for weather-related damage.