Iran thinks it has Trump ‘tamed’ — will it be proven true?

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Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, believes he has “tamed” President Trump. According to Israel’s Channel 14, Vahidi told senior Iranian leaders that “We got what we wanted. As always, the naïve West believes it will get something in return, which, of course, will never happen.”

On Wednesday, while preparing to depart on the new Air Force One, Trump was asked if he was preparing to return to all-out war.

“I think they’re fine,” he said of Iran. But Iran is not “fine.” The talks thus far are indirect and ineffectual, despite Trump’s Truth Social boast on Monday that, “IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!”

Iran is continuing to take a hard negotiating line. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s parliament, said Tehran will not negotiate a final end to the war until multiple clauses of its Memorandum of Understanding with Trump’s administration are fully implemented.

From Tehran’s perspective, that means the complete end of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, the end of any U.S. interference in the Strait of Hormuz, joint Iranian-Omani control of the strategic waterway, U.S. oil waivers, and the freeing of Iranian frozen assets.

Iran believes that Trump is capitulating in order to lower gas prices in the U.S., due to Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Ghalibaf is simply following his orders from Vahidi: “Don’t give in on anything. Threaten. And if necessary, walk away from the negotiations.”

Today is day 15 of the 60-day ceasefire talks. So far, and with good reason, Tehran believes it is in the lead. The White House is chasing its own tail in Doha. Until Trump realizes that the current regime will never honor any agreement Iran makes with the U.S., Vahidi will do everything possible, including returning to war, to permanently control and leverage the Strait of Hormuz.

He has made that clear. Vahidi has been quoted as saying, “Any violation, no matter how small, will allow us to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump and his people will accept anything.”

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner may want to make a deal, but Iran’s Assembly of Experts, political hardliners and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will not let that happen — at least not on Washington’s terms.

Quite the opposite: As reported in Iran International, Trump’s negotiators are merely giving oxygen to Iran’s hardliners. They rebuked Ghalibaf for giving too much away in the talks leading up to the memorandum of understanding. They reminded Vahidi that crossing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s red lines was “not permissible under any circumstances.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio sees through Vahidi’s charade. In Bahrain, he said that “The Iranian system is led by clerics, radical clerics. That’s what it’s always been led by.”

Trump’s two red-lines are at risk: No nuclear weapons and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Yet his priority of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is enabling Iran not to play ball. Negotiations are not working, nor are limited U.S. retaliatory strikes for repeated Iranian violations of the cease-fire.

Yet for now, despite multiple talks with the Pentagon about resuming strikes against Iran, U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that Trump will stick with talks for now because further bombing could “derail diplomacy and hurt Washington’s chances of ultimately dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.”

Trump also told aides that he would be fine if negotiations with Tehran extended beyond his  60-day deadline, and that he was satisfied with ordering one-off strikes on Iran when it violates the terms.

Vahidi is okay with one-off strikes too. They do not threaten the regime’s survival, they help keep Trump “tamed,” and as a bonus they extend the negotiating timeline. Plus, they conveniently enable Vahidi to avoid discussing the nuclear weapons.

They also buy Vahidi time to save Iran’s Hezbollah paramilitary proxy in Lebanon, whose very existence is at risk. Last Friday, Lebanon, Israel, and the U.S. signed a trilateral framework agreement aimed at combating Hezbollah.

According to the Jerusalem Post, the agreement “outlines a structured process for disarming Hezbollah,” thus enabling Israel to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.

Essentially, the trilateral peace framework is Rubio’s way of taming Vahidi by aiming for the end of Hezbollah. As expected, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem rejected the framework agreement, calling it “humiliating, shameful and a surrender of sovereignty” for Lebanon.

The lesson should be clear: A peace deal with Iran is not possible as long as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its radical clerics remain in power. Diplomacy has its limits. Trump’s forever cease-fire only plays into their hands.

Iran only understands brute force. It is past time for the White House to finish the job and permanently tame Vahidi and his hardliners.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.

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Mojtaba Khamenei

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