Gov't, House agree on macro assumptions for 2027 state budget draft

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Indonesian government and the House of Representatives (DPR) have reached an agreement on the macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal posture for the 2027 State Budget Draft (RAPBN) and the 2027 Government Work Plan (RKP).

Deputy Chair of the House's Budget Committee (Banggar DPR) Wihadi Wijanto said during the 23rd Plenary Session here on Thursday that the agreed framework will serve as the foundation for drafting the 2027 State Budget Bill and its accompanying financial note.

"The direction of the national development policy will focus heavily on accelerating inclusive economic growth and improving public welfare," Wihadi Wijanto remarked.

He noted that the macroeconomic assumptions were formulated by factoring in various global challenges, including geopolitical developments, international economic conditions, and domestic economic dynamics.

Based on those considerations, the government and the House agreed on the following macroeconomic assumptions for 2027:

Economic growth: 5.86–6.5 percent

Inflation: 1.5–3.5 percent

Exchange rate: Rp16,800 to Rp17,500 per US dollar

Indonesian Crude Price (ICP): US$70 to $95 per barrel

Oil lifting: 605 thousand to 620 thousand barrels per day (bpd)

Gas lifting: 951 thousand to 990 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd)

"This optimistic economic growth projection is supported by economic structural transformation, which serves as a foundation to achieve higher growth," Wihadi added.

He stated that the agreed fiscal policy is also designed to be expansive yet measured and prudential to navigate global economic uncertainties.

On the revenue front, the Budget Committee is pushing for its gradual increase by optimizing tax administration, improving taxpayer compliance, expanding the tax base, maximizing natural resource revenues, and adapting the tax system to the growing digital economy.

Regarding the state expenditure, the central government will prioritize quality spending to support National Priority Work Programs (PKPN), maintain public purchasing power, accelerate the eradication of extreme poverty, enhance human capital, as well as strengthen national research to support downstreaming and industrialization efforts.

Meanwhile, the agreed macro-fiscal posture for 2027, measured as a percentage to gross domestic product (GDP), is as follows:

State revenue: 12.01–12.40 percent

State expenditure: 13.81–14.80 percent

Primary balance: Between a 0.45 percent surplus and a 0.14 percent deficit

Budget deficit: 1.80–2.40 percent

Investment financing: 0.50–0.90 percent

Debt-to-GDP ratio: 40.31–40.64 percent

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Translator: Imamatul Silfia, Uyu Liman

Editor: Azis Kurmala