Democrat Josh Turek leading by 4 points in Iowa Senate race polling

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Democratic candidate Josh Turek leads GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson (Iowa) by 4 points in the Hawkeye State Senate race, according to a recent poll.

The survey, released by Fox News, found that 50 percent of 1,003 registered voters in the state backed Turek, a member of the Iowa state House since 2023.

Another 46 percent of respondents supported Hinson, who has represented Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District since 2023, before redistricting changed the makeup of the state’s congressional maps. She previously represented the 1st Congressional District.

Among respondents who said they were “extremely” motivated to vote in November, Turek held a 56-41 advantage over his GOP opponent.

The poll, conducted June 23-27, has a margin of error among all respondents of 3 percentage points. The margin for those extremely motivated was 4 points.

Turek and Hinson are vying to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a two-term senator who chairs the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and sits on the upper chamber’s Agriculture, Armed Services and Homeland Security panels.

If Turek were to win in November, he would be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa since former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) won his final race in 2008. Ernst succeeded Harkin in 2015.

A Democratic presidential nominee has also not won Iowa since former President Obama did in 2008.

Despite recent history in the state, Democrats have expressed optimism about Turek’s chances of defeating Hinson. The state lawmaker represents a district that President Trump carried three times and has sought to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum.

“If you’re tired of this rigged system only looking out for billionaires and leaving the rest of us behind, then join us,” the Democrat said in a speech after his primary victory last month. “Whether you’re a Republican, an independent or a Democrat, there is room here for you in our campaign.”

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report also rates the race as leaning toward the GOP, just one spot from the “toss up” category.

Turek, who won two gold medals in the Paralympics and has used a wheelchair since childhood — centered his campaign on strengthening the country’s healthcare system and issues impacting the agriculture industry.

Hinson, with the backing of Ernst and Trump, has also touted her support for Iowa farmers on the campaign trail. She has slammed her Democratic challenger as backing policies that would harm the industry.

As of 2022, Iowa had the third-most farms of any state behind only Texas and Missouri, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In line with historical trends, a plurality of respondents, 39 percent, said inflation and high prices combined is the top issue when deciding whom to vote for, the recent survey noted.

Healthcare, immigration and border security and political divisions within the country were the only three other topics in double-digits, according to the Fox News poll.

Tags

2026 midterm elections

Ashley Hinson

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Iowa

Joni Ernst

Joni Ernst retirement

Josh Turek

Senate Democrats

Senate GOP

Tom Harkin

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