Johor state election: Racial undercurrents reshape fight for Chinese voters

JOHOR BAHRU: Racial issues, long a muted feature of Johor politics, have gained prominence in the lead-up to the Jul 11 state election, sharpening the contest for the ethnic Chinese vote in several key seats.

Analysts say national controversies over issues important to Chinese Malaysians, along with race-based campaigning by various political parties, have turned the Chinese electorate into one of the election's most fiercely contested voting blocs.

While racial rhetoric is unlikely to reshape voting across all communities, it could prove decisive in some mixed and Chinese-majority constituencies, the observers add.

While Johor's ethnic makeup broadly mirrors Malaysia's national demographic split of about 60 per cent Malay, 30 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent comprising other groups, Chinese voters form the largest voting bloc in around 12 of the state's 56 seats, most of them urban.

RACE ENTERS THE MIX

In Johor Jaya, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is defending a seat where Chinese voters form the largest proportion. PH has held the constituency for three consecutive elections, and its candidate Lee Wern Yiing said racial messaging has been more pronounced in this campaign than previous state elections.

She pointed to an AI-generated image circulating online that depicted Chinese women wearing PH T-shirts and hijabs.

The image has been criticised by leaders of Democratic Action Party (DAP), a Chinese-majority party that is part of PH, with Johor DAP chairman Teo Nie Ching saying that it sought to depict those from PH wearing hijabs inappropriately to undermine the bloc.

The image was also reportedly shared by a former local councillor from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) on social media, accompanied by a remark disparaging PH.

"I don't think that is right," said Lee, 30, a first-time candidate for DAP who has served as special officer to incumbent assemblyman Liow Cai Tung for eight years. Ethnic Chinese make up 44 per cent of voters in Johor Jaya, which is also being contested by MCA's Chan San San, Parti Bersama Malaysia's (Bersama) Lau Yi Leong and independent candidate HP Lim.

Other constituencies where Chinese voters form the largest voting bloc include Perling, Stulang, Puteri Wangsa and Skudai.

"If you want to contest an election, debate policies and issues that help the people, not resort to tactics that disrespect women and different races," said Lee.

MCA is part of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which is seeking to retain control of the Johor state government.

BN and PH are political rivals in Johor state, although they are partners in the federal unity government.

DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke has described the social media post by the former councillor as "an outdated tactic that people will reject".

MCA declined to comment while the former councillor Lee Ching Kong was quoted by The Star as saying that he did not upload the photograph and merely shared it after first seeing it on a Facebook group.

He added that his social media post was mainly a call for Malaysians working in Singapore to return to vote.

Beyond doctored AI images, campaign debates have increasingly centred on issues sensitive to Chinese Malaysians, such as the decision to end pig farming in Selangor and renewed calls for federal recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) awarded by independent Chinese-medium schools.

Bersama candidate for Perling Boo Wei Han, for instance, incurred the ire of some netizens for criticising Selangor’s decision to cease pig farming in the state at a rally. Pork production and consumption are traditionally sensitive topics in Malaysia, given that 63.5 per cent of the population is Muslim and pork is prohibited in Islam.

At the same time, PN leaders have stepped up appeals to the Malay-Muslim electorate, a strategy analysts said risks further polarising voters.

President of PN component Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Abdul Hadi Awang, urged voters to back BN candidates in seats where PN is not contesting, saying "what is important is that Johor is ruled by Malay Muslims".

Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has also warned that Malays risk "losing Malay land" if they lose political power.

“TRIED AND TESTED” STRATEGY

Such race-based campaigning has traditionally been less pronounced in Johor than elsewhere in Malaysia, with voters generally favouring more moderate politics, residents and analysts told CNA.

Political analyst Syaza Shukri said Johor has historically been less susceptible to racial politics than many other states, but parties continue to reach for race-based narratives because they believe the strategy can still mobilise their core supporters.

"Racial politics will continue as long as parties view one another through a racial lens. I think the parties will continue with this tried-and-tested strategy because the coalitions themselves are divided along those lines," she said.

This time, Johor is being fiercely contested by BN and PH, the biggest opposition bloc in the state. Both coalitions have fielded candidates in all 56 seats.

Others contesting include Perikatan Nasional (PN) – the biggest opposition bloc at the federal level – and Bersama, led by former economy minister Rafizi Ramli.

HOW WILL DAP FARE AFTER SABAH SETBACK?

While PH’s DAP has traditionally dominated Chinese support in the country – particularly during its years as an opposition party at the federal level – its drubbing at last November’s Sabah state election has raised questions over whether that backing is eroding.

DAP was wiped out in all eight seats it contested and PH secured only one seat in the 73-member Sabah state assembly.

The setback prompted DAP to more aggressively champion issues important to its traditional Chinese support base, including renewed calls for federal recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) and other long-promised reforms.

But analysts cautioned against reading too much into the result in Sabah, where local parties offered Chinese voters a credible alternative to PH.

Still, Johor will provide the first major test of whether DAP's support among Chinese voters in Peninsular Malaysia is genuinely softening, they said.

Former lawmaker Ong Kian Ming, now an adjunct professor at Taylor's University, told CNA: “Unlike Sabah, where Parti Warisan Sabah was a genuine alternative for Chinese voters, in Peninsular Malaysia, Chinese voters have (far fewer alternatives) outside DAP and PH.”

All eyes will be on whether DAP manages to defend its 10 seats in Johor, or whether it might lose ground to BN’s MCA, which also has strong roots in the state.

MCA will be looking to capitalise on signs of dissatisfaction with PH's federal administration. Johor caretaker executive councillor Lee Ting Han, an MCA leader contesting in Paloh, said BN's internal surveys suggest Chinese support has shifted towards BN over the past term.

"PH has always assumed Chinese voters — including those working in Singapore — would naturally vote for them. I don't think that's true anymore," he said.

Johor voters have become increasingly pragmatic, prioritising cost-of-living issues and government performance over political loyalties, Lee argued.

MCA is contesting 15 seats and hopes to build on gains made in 2022, when it wrested four Chinese-majority constituencies from DAP: Paloh, Pekan Nenas, Yong Peng and Bekok.

DAP acknowledged it needed to do more to convince voters.

Johor Jaya candidate Lee Wern Yiing conceded the Madani government had fallen short in some areas, including education, but argued reforms were beginning to take shape.

She pointed to the federal Cabinet's decision in May to widen higher education pathways for UEC graduates.

“The Madani government’s score is not 100/100, they (can do better) especially in issues like education and we aim to make small improvements to close this gap,” she said.

“We have made progress but to implement these policies in full, we need more time.”

Voters like retiree See Boon Leong, 71, appear willing to stick with DAP as he believes the party best represents the interests of the Chinese community, such as in areas like education and business policies.

"We have our gripes about DAP, but when it comes to voting, we'll continue supporting them and PH," said See, who will be voting in Penggaram constituency in Batu Pahat.

Taylor’s University’s Ong said turnout could prove just as important as voter sentiment.

In Johor's 2022 state election, which saw BN winning 40 out of 56 seats, turnout was just above 50 per cent. By contrast, turnout in that year's general election was about 75 per cent and PH won 14 of Johor's 26 parliamentary seats.

Ong expects the figure on Jul 11 to fall somewhere in between, predicting that lower participation among non-Malay voters is likely to benefit BN more than PH.

WILL BN-PAS TIE-UP AFFECT CHINESE VOTE?

As for BN, the question is whether signs of its cooperation with the Islamist PAS could hamper its efforts to win over more Chinese voters.

Analysts earlier said rival PN's decision to contest only 33 of Johor's 56 seats — despite earlier signalling it would field candidates statewide — has reduced the chances of splitting the Malay vote, potentially benefiting BN.

PAS has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats where it is absent.

Party president Abdul Hadi said PAS did not want Johor to be governed by "liberals or non-Muslims", fuelling speculation of closer cooperation between PAS and BN’s lynchpin party, United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), for future elections.

Analysts said such messaging could consolidate support for PH among Chinese voters worried about the prospect of a broader Malay-Muslim political alliance.

Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Malaysia-based think tank Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said a PAS-UMNO collaboration could lead to a "siege mentality" for ethnic Chinese voters, who will then be more likely to cast their ballots for PH.

"Chinese voters in Johor will not be receptive to a Malay parties-centric pact, and they will more likely come out to vote for PH if the rumours of this pact (coming to fruition) becomes more concrete," he added.

Before nomination day, Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi had also said he did not want to "sit at the same table" as DAP in forming the next state government.

Former Johor DAP assemblywoman Gan Peck Cheng, who is retiring from politics, described the comments as inappropriate for a chief minister.

"As Johor's leader, how can you say you do not want to sit with DAP when we will be in the state assembly together?" she said.

While some social media users viewed the remarks as racially charged, Onn Hafiz rejected the suggestion.

"We have always been proud of the Bangsa Johor concept, where Malays, Chinese, Indians and Orang Asli come together to move the state forward," he told CNA before nomination day.

"Johoreans are wise enough to reject parties that try to sow hatred and divide our people."

Political analysts said his remarks were more likely aimed at reassuring UMNO's Malay grassroots, many of whom remain uncomfortable with the party's cooperation with DAP at the federal level.

“By and large, I think this strategy has fulfilled Onn Hafiz’s objective, especially after BN was able to turn around the attacks against Onn Hafiz for being ‘racist’ by responding that DAP is not a race but a political party,” said Taylor’s University’s Ong, a former two-term DAP MP and deputy minister of international trade and industry.

Several Johor voters also said race and religion would not determine how they cast their ballots.

"We don't vote just because a candidate is Malay, Chinese or from any particular race," said Kluang resident Jackson Foo.

"We look at what they can do for us. Johoreans are sophisticated enough to judge candidates on merit rather than ethnicity."

Candidate Lee Wern Yiing also expects a close fight in Johor Jaya, which PH won in the last polls by a 4.1 per cent margin.

"With the competition so tight this time, we expect the margins to be closer than ever," she said.

Source: CNA/am