Typhoon Bavi poses 'significant threat' to Mariana Islands

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) governor David Apatang is advising residents of Saipan, Tinian and Rota to stay up-to-date with forecasts as Typhoon Bavi approaches.

An update just after midnight Friday from the National Weather Service in Guam said satellite imagery showed Bavi as a very broad, strengthening storm, forecast to become a typhoon within the next 24 hours.

Bavi is forecast to continue strengthening over the next few days as it moves west-northwest toward the Marianas.

The storm could potentially pass anywhere from south of Guam to north of Anatahan, in the north of the CNMI, and there will be adjustments to the forecast track.

A zone forecast for the Marianas stated tropical storm conditions are possible on Sunday night for Saipan, Tinian and Rota, with typhoon conditions possible on Monday.

"Seas are expected to start building Saturday, as swell from Bavi approaches the Marianas. Seas are expected to become hazardous as soon as Saturday afternoon," the forecast said.

The storm has prompted officials to cancel the 80th Liberation Day parade.

It comes as some residents are still without electricity following super typhoon Sinlaku.

Sinlaku battered the Marianas and Guam in April, causing widespread devastation to local infrastructure and the economy, and wiping out up to 60 percent of the livestock on Saipan.

The CNMI Public School System - the main organisation that runs all the free, government-funded schools - decided to end the 2025-2026 school year early instead of reopening campuses due to the devastation.

It is only been a couple of weeks since the US Army Corps of Engineers announced on 22 June that its temporary power planning and response team had completed the deinstallation of all emergency generators used to support critical infrastructure after Sinlaku.

Residents prepare

Residents and businesses on Saipan have begun extensive storm preparations ahead of what could become the Marianas' second super typhoon in just over two months following Super Typhoon Sinlaku.

Long lines formed at gasoline stations Thursday as motorists topped off their fuel tanks, while homeowners flocked to hardware stores for plywood, storm shutters, and other emergency materials.

Supermarkets and other retailers also saw residents stocking up on groceries, bottled water, and other essential supplies, while many homes and businesses were already being boarded up in anticipation of the storm.

The US National Weather Service in Guam said Friday that Bavi had strengthened overnight into a Category 1 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130kph), and that conditions are "optimal for rapid intensification," which could begin immediately and continue over the next one to two days.

As of 7am local time, Friday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center placed Bavi about 760 miles (1223 km) east of Guam and 715 miles (1151 km) east-southeast of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 14mph (22kph).

Under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its north, the cyclone is expected to turn westward before resuming a west-northwest track toward the Marianas.

Warning Coordination meteorologist Landon Aydlett said the latest forecast continues to depict "a grim outlook" for the Marianas, particularly Saipan and Tinian, with current projections bringing a super typhoon near or just south of Tinian by mid- to late Monday morning.

The National Weather Service said the current forecast still points to Bavi passing through the Marianas after undergoing rapid intensification over the next two days.

However, Aydlett stressed that the forecast is not a guarantee. He said the storm's track could still shift south toward Guam or farther north, while changes in its speed and intensity remain possible over the next two to three days.

A direct hit is not guaranteed for any island, but remains a distinct possibility, particularly for Saipan and Tinian.

The National Weather Service said all residents of Guam and the CNMI should prepare for at least tropical storm-force conditions.

Islands closest to the storm's centre, or those that receive a direct hit, could experience significantly stronger winds, destructive surf, torrential rain and dangerous conditions.

The agency described Bavi as "a significant threat for all of the Mariana Islands" and urged people to take steps now to protect life and property while closely monitoring official forecasts.

A special weather statement also remains in effect for Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae in the Federated States of Micronesia, where Bavi is expected to pass to the north.

Forecasters warned those islands could still experience surging west winds, thunderstorms and periods of locally heavy rainfall as the system moves through the western Pacific.