'Panicked' Putin has big decision to make, and 'could go nuclear'

It has been described as Vladimir Putin's jewel, but right now, Crimea has become one of his biggest vulnerabilities.

The peninsula was once a symbol of the Russian president's authoritarian muscle. Ignoring a chorus of Western condemnation, he ordered his military to annex it from Ukraine in 2014.

It took less than four weeks for the Kremlin's forces to occupy the territory.

"This sparked a wave of nationalistic fervour and approval in Russia," said Jenny Mathers, a senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University.

"The phrase 'Crimea is ours' became very popular. They even put it on fridge magnets."

But 12 years later, there is panic on the peninsula, where a state of emergency was last week declared. Some analysts believe the fate of this piece of land could prove pivotal to Putin's hold on power.

Despite being more than 200 kilometres behind the front lines in Ukraine, war has arrived in Crimea once again.

Kyiv has developed cheap, medium-range drones capable of evading Russia's forces. Sustained attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure are having a major effect on life there. The price of fuel has skyrocketed. Blackouts have become widespread.

The highways that once linked Russia and Crimea are now littered with destroyed military vehicles and fuel tankers, which have been among Ukraine's most popular targets.

Petrol is now in such short supply on the peninsula, civilians require special permission to fill up, if they can even find it.

"As a driver, I am not happy about the current situation. I do understand that it is a forced measure, but surely, I cannot say that I am happy," Pyotr, a resident of Crimea's largest city, Sevastopol, told the Reuters news agency this week, while he was out searching for fuel.

'It's not looking good for Russia'

One of the reasons fuel has become scarce is because of Ukraine's increasing ability to target critical logistics routes, which had connected Russia's internationally recognised borders with Crimea.

Not only are they used to supply petrol to civilians on the peninsula, they had served as critical arteries to get troops and supplies to Moscow's forces on the front lines in Ukraine.

While Russia does have another link with Crimea, the 19km Kerch Bridge, it has also been a regular target of Ukraine's over the course of the war.

Crimea has become a popular holiday destination for Russians since it was annexed. Federal authorities have also encouraged citizens from other parts of the country to relocate there.

Last year, an estimated 7 million tourists flocked to the peninsula, which is known for its warm climate, natural beauty, and Black Sea beaches.

Now, it has become too dangerous to visit.

Many Russians who were largely unaffected by their country's full-scale invasion in February 2022 — something the Kremlin propaganda machine refers to as a "special military operation" — have been inconvenienced.

Last week, the Russian-installed government in Crimea declared a state of emergency, in what many analysts are interpreting as a major win for Ukraine.

Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow and expert in Russian domestic politics at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, described the current situation in Crimea as "a nightmare for the Kremlin".

"It transforms the special military operation into a real war [for Russian citizens]," he said, during an online discussion hosted by the think tank last week.

Professor Petrov, who was born in Crimea and has worked as an academic in Moscow, described the situation on the peninsula as a "personal humiliation for Putin" that could serve "as a game changer".

"It's not clear exactly how authorities will deal with this," he said.

Dr Mathers said Ukraine's attacks were clearly having an effect.

"At the moment, it's not looking good for Russia," she said.

"It certainly puts Russia on the back foot in lots of ways."

'Panicked' Putin could escalate attacks

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he had authorised a 40-day operation, involving increased attacks on Russia, in a bid to pressure Putin into negotiating a peace deal.

The Kremlin has not budged publicly from its maximalist set of demands to end the war, which includes it being handed territory it does not currently occupy.

Ukraine maintains this is unacceptable. On Wednesday, the country's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said striking Crimea was "an important goal" for his government.

"Crimea has become a military base for the Russians to continue their occupation of the south of our country and transfer forces to the east of our country," he said.

The peninsula has an important role in Russia's national mythology and is linked to the spiritual beginnings of the country's orthodox church.

Control over Crimea was transferred from Moscow to Kyiv in 1954, when both were part of the Soviet Union.

The dissolution of the USSR in the early 90s, however, and Ukraine's subsequent move towards Western allies, has sparked a tug-of-war over the territory. Even before its annexation, the majority of the people on the peninsula were considered ethnically Russian.

With Putin's jewel threatened, analysts are split on how he may respond.

"In reality, Kyiv's hope is that, by presenting Putin with the threat of losing this most prized of conquests, he will be forced to the negotiating table and accept Ukraine's demand for a ceasefire before anything else," Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and honorary professor at University College London, wrote in Britain's The Sunday Times newspaper at the weekend.

"But the risk is that it drives the Russian leader to escalate instead."

He later warned: "When Putin is panicked, he tends to make decisions hastily and badly."

As Ukraine's attacks have increased in intensity and effectiveness, Russian officials have threatened the possibility of their country using a tactical nuclear strike in a bid to ward off an emboldened Kyiv.

"I think they [the Kremlin] do not have any way out except for raising the stakes," Professor Petrov said. He described Crimea as being Putin's "number one" problem.

"I have in mind what is offered publicly in Russia just to use nuclear weapons in a limited way just to demonstrate that Russia is capable of using these weapons," Professor Petrov said, adding there were no limits to what a desperate Putin was capable of.

"It's better to overestimate the threat than to underestimate it, when it comes to nuclear arms," Professor Petrov said.

Russia on Wednesday launched one of its biggest ever aerial bombardments of Kyiv, damaging 130 buildings and killing 21 people.

It could be a sign of things to come.