The concerning stat that shows Australia's attack needs to lift

The Socceroos have never won a knockout match at a FIFA World Cup finals.

Australia lost against Italy in the Round of 16 back in 2006, and then were beaten by Argentina in the same round in 2022.

Two attempts, two defeats. They say third time's the charm, right? 27 million Australians watching back home certainly hope so.

Without question, Australia will need to do better going forward, but perhaps their defence could see them through.

For Socceroos head coach Tony Popovic, he's relying on Australia's physicality, fitness and the team's growth to make history tomorrow.

He said since the start of the tournament, his team has matured but also grown in confidence but admitted there has still been some aspects that have needed some work.

"The details matter, moments make the difference," he said in the final press conference in Dallas before kick-off.

"This is where we want to be. We always had a belief that we are good enough to be at this stage."

Egypt stands in the way of Australian men's football history this time. The Pharaohs. Mohamed Salah, heard of him?

"The history gets made after the game, so we have to do our part during the match … to create that history," Popovic said.

"We have a chance to make history. The players are ready."

To defeat Egypt and make history, the Socceroos will need to be at their best.

Improvement needed in front of goal

In attack, the Socceroos have been far from that. They have created just one big chance in the group stage of this tournament.

For those wondering, Opta lists the Big Chance statistic as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score".

This stat highlights how well a football teams breaks down a defence. Something Australia has not been able to do well.

In fact, alongside Uzbekistan, the Socceroos have performed the worst in this metric.

Paul Okon-Engstler created that big chance in our win over Türkiye nearly three weeks ago.

In terms of expected goals, Australia has just 2.1 so far over three games. They have scored 2 goals, so it tracks.

But that's not enough. Quite simply, the attacking players need to do more from chance creation to chance taking.

Popovic agrees, kind of.

He said he felt like Australia created good opportunities against Paraguay, but admitted "we were unable to take those opportunities".

"I am confident we will create them once more tomorrow [against Egypt]," he added.

Creating them is one thing, but scoring them is more important. The Socceroos have two goals, yes, but the attacking players have had nowhere near enough shots on target.

Nestory Irankunda, Jordan Bos and Connor Metcalfe have each had two shots on target so far. Mohamed Touré, Cristian Volpato, Tete Yengi and Jackson Irvine have one.

We've managed just 11 total.

Now of course, these are just stats, and there is much more that goes on in a football match that dictates how well a player has played. But goals do win matches.

What is in our favour is that Egypt desperately need to tighten up at the back.

The Pharaohs have chopped and changed from a back five to a back four throughout the tournament as they have struggled to find their strongest formation.

They will also be without two of their preferred centre back options, Ahmed Fatouh and Mohamed Abdelmonem, who are both injured.

They’ve conceded 4.6 expected goals throughout the tournament, which puts them in the bottom half of teams in that defensive statistic.

Important to note though, Egypt went through the group stages unbeaten, and confidence is high in their camp.

What all the above suggests, is if Australia can create more chances (and do better when they present themselves), Egypt might not have an answer.

Solid at the back

Defensively though, Australia has been strong. Minus a 45 minute blip against the USA, it has been a solid showing at the back.

The back five deployed by Popovic has conceded just two goals this tournament. Both of which came in that first half against America.

Led by captain Harry Souttar, the defence holds its shape with laser focus, making clearances and tackles that snuff out opposition attacks.

They work as a unit very well with the deep midfield pairing that will likely be Aiden O'Neil and Jackson Irvine or Okon-Engstler.

The group is also tall, and dominates aerial duels at the back.

Australia's biggest strength is when they are out of possession. Physicality, rigidness and fitness, that's what the team has.

Egypt head coach Hossam Hassan wasn't concerned about a height or physical advantage for Australia.

He said this isn't American football, size isn't everything, and Egypt play better football. We will see.

Against Türkiye, Australia showed they don't need possession to win and it is likely going to be similar against Egypt.

The Egyptians have averaged 54 per cent possession across their matches this tournament and as you can imagine, a lot of the attack goes through Salah.

Their coach Hossam Hassan has remained coy on whether or not the star forward will play or not.

Either way, Australia has "prepared for Mohamed Salah playing," Popovic said.

Something else to contend with will be the heat in Dallas, Texas.

There is a severe weather warning in place for the city tomorrow, with temperatures set to reach 36 degrees Celsius.

Which team that will suit best is hard to say, but it might not play a huge factor as Dallas Stadium is actually the world's largest air-conditioned room.

Dallas Stadium is normally set at a crisp 23C during a match. Sounds good.

So, tomorrow morning at 4am AEST. Egypt vs Australia.

It's 26 taking on 28 in the FIFA World Rankings which means the Socceroos can claim the underdog status once again.

That's suits Australia.

"We feel relaxed, we feel confident, we feel we're prepared ... We feel good," Popovic said.

"I am confident that the players are ready to step up again tomorrow."

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