Immigrants ‘abandon Social Security’ at rate of 455 per day

More than 162,000 foreign workers disappeared from Portugal’s Social Security system last year without returning to active contributor status, fuelling concerns that many have either left the country or slipped into the ‘black economy’ as the country’s immigration policies tighten and living costs rise.

According to data from the Portuguese Social Security Institute (ISS) obtained by Expresso, 162,252 foreign employees ceased contributing to the system in 2025 and did not reappear on the register.

The figure represents a 66% increase on the previous year, equivalent to an average of 455 foreign workers disappearing from the system every day, up from 267 daily in 2024.

The scale of the trend has prompted calls for urgent political action. Pedro Góis, director of Portugal’s Migration Observatory, said the figures reflect both a growing number of migrants leaving Portugal and an increasing shift towards undeclared work. Góis is urging an emergency meeting of the country’s social dialogue partners.

Brazilian nationals accounted for the largest number of departures in absolute terms, with almost 60,000 disappearing from the Social Security register in 2025 and around 100,000 over the past two years.

However, the sharpest increase came from migrants originating in the Indian subcontinent. The number of workers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal leaving the system almost tripled compared with the previous year.

Indian nationals alone recorded 14,477 cessations in 2025 – up from 5,540 in 2024. Combined, workers from the four South Asian countries accounted for 57,290 lost contributors over the past two years.

Significant increases were also recorded among nationals from Portuguese-speaking African countries, with departures more than doubling among workers from Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, Mozambique and Angola, while the number of workers from Guinea-Bissau leaving the system tripled.

The trend spans almost every nationality represented in Portugal’s workforce. Social Security cessations increased among 51 of the 59 nationalities monitored, with only workers from Spain, Germany, Moldova, Netherlands, Canada, Hungary and Norway avoiding an increase.

Better pay abroad, growing uncertainty at home

Community organisations say Portugal has become significantly less attractive for migrant workers.

Shiv Kumar Singh, president of the Casa da Índia association, tells Expresso that thousands of Indian migrants who had already regularised their status, secured employment and contributed to Social Security have recently moved to countries including Spain, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

“The country no longer has arguments to persuade them to stay,” he said, pointing to tougher immigration legislation, rising living costs, administrative delays and growing uncertainty over family reunification.

According to Singh, many migrants are now recruited directly by employers elsewhere in Europe – often with multi-year contracts and accommodation included.

He cited the example of a cook who earned €1,200 a month in Portugal while paying rent and taxes, but now receives almost €2,000 in the Netherlands with housing provided by his employer.

The departures are already affecting sectors heavily dependent on migrant labour, particularly tourism and agriculture.

Singh said businesses in the Algarve, Odemira, São Teotónio, Beja and Lisbon are reporting increasing labour shortages, with fruit growers struggling to recruit seasonal workers.

Fear and frustration driving departures

Rana Uddin, spokesman for Portugal’s Bangladeshi community, describes a similar picture.

“Every day we hear someone saying they are leaving,” he said, adding that businesses around Lisbon’s Benformoso district, long regarded as a commercial hub for the Bangladeshi community, are already experiencing falling customer numbers.

Social Security data show cessations among Bangladeshi workers rose from 4,609 in 2024 to 12,594 in 2025 – an increase of 173%.

Many initially headed to Spain amid expectations of a large-scale migrant regularisation programme, with others choosing France, Switzerland and Denmark.

Uddin said low wages, poor housing conditions and long delays to family reunification have eroded confidence among migrants who had planned to build permanent lives in Portugal.

Informal work increasing among Brazilians

The picture appears more complex among Brazilian nationals.

Ana Paula Costa, president of Casa do Brasil, said the large number of Brazilians disappearing from the Social Security register did not necessarily mean they have left Portugal.

Instead, many whose residence permits expired or could not be renewed have seen formal employment contracts cancelled before moving into undeclared work.

“They remain in Portugal and continue working, but without any formal employment relationship,” she said, warning that labour informality has increased as legal pathways became more restricted.

Costa acknowledges that rising housing costs, fewer opportunities to regularise immigration status and increasingly hostile public debate around migration have encouraged some Brazilians to leave, although she rejected any kind of mass exodus scenario.

Migrants still contribute more than they leave

Despite the sharp rise in departures from the Social Security system, Portugal continues to register more new foreign workers than it loses.

The ISS recorded 539,493 new registrations of foreign employees during 2025, virtually unchanged from the previous year, although new arrivals from Brazil and the Indian subcontinent have declined, while registrations from Portuguese-speaking African countries, particularly Angola, Cape Verde and Mozambique, have increased.

Overall, the Social Security migration balance remains positive, albeit on a weakening trend since 2024.

However, the slowdown could eventually affect public finances – and this is what politicians will be worrying about. Foreign workers now account for around one-fifth of all Social Security contributors and have generated a net surplus of €16.3 billion for the Portuguese state over the past decade. Contributions continue to rise in 2026, but officials say the pace of growth is slowing month by month.

Source material: Expresso