Press review: Iran, US far from peace deal and EU seeks to disrupt Russia-Armenia ties

MOSCOW, July 3. /TASS/. Tehran and Washington are still far from finalizing a peace deal, and experts weigh in on difficulties facing Russia-US relations. Meanwhile, the European Union is working to disrupt the relationship between Russia and Armenia. These stories topped Friday's headlines in Russia.

Izvestia: Iran, US still far from finalizing peace deal

Even as Qatar’s Foreign Ministry has said that there is mutual understanding between the United States and Iran, experts interviewed by Izvestia argue that the two sides are still far from reaching a compromise. Indirect talks on the memorandum of understanding will reopen after July 9 when funeral ceremonies for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are over. At that, Tehran rules out direct dialogue unless Washington fulfils the key terms of the deal, first of all a ceasefire in Lebanon. Although the parties have agreed to establish a truce monitoring committee, and Israel has begun to test a phased military withdrawal, analysts believe that the conflict will inevitably flare up again in the region.

The parties are putting "a good face on a bad game," political analyst Yelena Suponina told Izvestia. According to her, even as minimal progress is possible in the negotiations in Qatar, it is too early to claim success. The participants in the process are only trying to strengthen their positions and "creating a fog," Georgy Asatryan, an expert at Higher School of Economics, agrees. He noted that the Iran war has scarred "Trumpism's image." With congressional elections and the celebration of the 250th anniversary of US Independence Day ahead for the US leader, Washington is trying to avoid a resumption of hostilities, the expert said.

While the initiative in peace talks has passed to Qatar, the Pakistani delegation continues to participate in them, Asatryan added. As one of the most pragmatic regional countries, Qatar is ideally suited for the role of a mediator, the expert continued. Doha maintains the most constructive relations with Tehran among the Arab monarchies and holds a significant part of Iranian assets in its banks. However, even under these conditions, there is no real compromise for concluding a peace treaty between Iran and the United States, Asatryan concluded.

Nor do experts expect Hezbollah to disarm any time soon. Tehran cannot relinquish its support to the Shiite movement, for that would be viewed as betrayal of the idea of Islamic revolution, while Israel is seeking a war to a victorious end, Asatryan emphasized. Suponina, too, agrees that the conflict in Lebanon will continue. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not leave the Arab republic until Hezbollah fully disarms, a scenario that looks unrealistic, she maintained.

Vedomosti: Experts weigh in on difficulties facing Moscow-Washington relations

Ahead of the 250th anniversary of the United States, Director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Natalya Tsvetkova and Director of the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Victoria Zhuravleva commented on the history and prospects of bilateral relations between Russia and the United States.

Zhuravleva argued that Russia-US relations are complex because the two countries are very much alike; Russia, too, is a country with a mission. Russia also sees itself as a special state capable of influencing global affairs and of putting forward a global development model. At the same time, the two economies are very different and do not complement each other, lacking any interconnected supply chains, unlike US-China relations, which are underpinned by economic ties. "[The US] may embark on a military buildup against China, or look at it through the telescope and even be afraid of it, but the two will still be economically tied so that nothing can be done about it anyway. The situation with Russia is different: Russia can be feared or disliked, which, in their view, would do them [the US] no harm," she told Vedomosti.

As regards the Ukraine conflict, US President Donald Trump is primarily seeking political gain, as he needs to demonstrate that he is truly capable of resolving any conflict, especially ahead of the midterm elections, Zhuravleva said. "It would be good to reach an accord with Russia, but no specific or direct steps have actually been taken throughout the entire Trump presidency," she argued. The upcoming midterms are very important both for the US president and for Russia-US relations, she continued, as any communication between the US and Russia is possible only when the president’s party controls Congress.

Commenting on the main challenges facing US studies in Russia, Tsvetkova complained about the lack of contact between the cultural, public, and academic communities of the two countries. "Unless there are exchanges in education and culture, we will see nothing but an information bubble that has nothing to do with reality," she warned.

Zhuravleva agreed, describing bilateral communication as being at its lowest level ever. "In the Soviet and Cold War era, all contacts were strictly controlled, but there were quite a lot of them," she said.

Media: EU working to disrupt Russia-Armenia relations

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has concluded her tour of the South Caucasus by visiting Yerevan. At a press conference on July 2, she announced tariff-free access to the EU for 80% of Armenia’s exports, including fresh vegetables, fruit, and plants, as well as alcohol and beverages.

The Armenian Ministry of Economy told Izvestia that "active talks and discussions aimed at removing trade barriers imposed by the Russian Federation are currently underway." "At present, when geopolitical and logistical problems have arisen in traditional export markets, the diversification of export routes has been a priority of the economic policy pursued by the Government of the Republic of Armenia," the ministry added.

Armenia has historically exported mainly agricultural products that have been purchased by Russia, Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State University, explained to Izvestia. According to him, there is strong competition in the European agricultural goods market. The expert believes that Brussels will open up to Armenian producers, but the volume of these supplies will not be comparable to the previous level of exports to Russia.

Nikolay Silayev, a researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, told Vedomosti that the EU, the US, or Turkey cannot serve as a key alternative market for Armenian exports. On the one hand, the assortment of Armenian goods mainly appeals to Russian consumers; on the other hand, the financial aid recently allocated by the Europeans to Armenia (€34 million) will clearly not be enough to diversify Armenian export routes, and the bulk of it will be misused, the political analyst noted. "Being aware of that, Yerevan is currently trying to find ways of resolving the Russia-Armenia crisis. But this problem goes beyond a trade dispute," the expert said.

Brussels pursues both narrow and broader goals in the South Caucasus direction, Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher with the Caucasus Institute, maintained. Firstly, he said, the EU is attempting to express its support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the wake of the parliamentary election and against the background of the trade conflict between Russia and Armenia.

Secondly, the expert continued, the Yerevan talks build on a regional tour during which the Europeans are seeking to establish energy and transport corridors as an alternative to the Russian ones. "The two sides will likely try to expedite the so-called ‘Trump Route’ in the region in order to build a land-based route from Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Iran and Russia. Armenia is a major element in this puzzle, and there is currently intense competition around it," the political analyst argued.

Izvestia: The Netherlands accelerating preparations for conflict with Russia

The Dutch are proactively preparing for an armed confrontation with Russia, the Russian embassy in the Hague told Izvestia. Among other things, the kingdom is increasing its military support to Ukraine as it is seeking to become a key manufacturer of drones for the Ukrainian armed forces. The United States has already deployed tactical nuclear weapons to the Netherlands. However, experts do not rule out that France, too, may deploy its nuclear carriers there. The North Atlantic Alliance is getting ready for a conflict with Russia by 2030, even as the US and part of Europe are not interested in such a scenario.

At the same time, The Hague is seeking to become a key European developer and manufacturer of UAVs, the main weapon of modern conflicts. To achieve this, the kingdom has drawn on Ukraine’s combat experience and technology. NATO is planning to use the Netherlands as a key military logistics and transport centre. As Europe’s largest seaport, Rotterdam has deep-water berths capable of receiving heavy armaments. The Netherlands is also important to the bloc in the context of joint nuclear missions. US tactical nuclear warheads have already been deployed to Volkel Air Base, and the Russian embassy assumes that The Hague and NATO are planning to adapt its infrastructure for the French or pan-European nuclear umbrella.

French Rafale fighter jets from strategic squadrons capable of carrying nuclear weapons may soon begin holding joint exercises with Dutch aircraft and practice missions abroad, researcher at the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Stefanovich told Izvestia.

However, not all European NATO allies are ready for a conflict with Russia. While the Baltic and Nordic states, as well as Poland and Great Britain, have indeed ramped up their defense budgets and are building military facilities as they perceive Moscow as a strategic threat, political analyst Denis Denisov noted, the majority of allies are not supportive of this prospect as they would rather wait out the situation, the expert concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russian scholars embrace AI

A survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) shows that 85% of Russian researchers have already embraced artificial intelligence in their work. However, the introduction of innovative technology does not necessarily turn users into innovators. Scholars use external, mostly foreign projects that help them automate routine processes or compensate for a lack of foreign language skills. Polls have not revealed any significant impact of AI technology on research in Russia.

Meanwhile, universal AI services and chatbots have been most in demand among Russian researchers, with almost three-fourths of interviewed scholars who have mastered AI tools using them. The overwhelming majority rely on foreign solutions (88%) and 51% on Russian ones. As many use several services simultaneously, this brings the total share to over 100%.

Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta oppose equating the availability and access to AI with resulting research efficiency. "The real effect should be assessed by the reduction in research time, the quality of scientific papers, and the number of patents and applications," Yaroslav Seliverstov, a leading expert in AI at University 2035, argued.

"The high level of involvement in any technological agenda does not necessarily guarantee scientific and technical results. If using AI actually means translating a text, formatting a publication or preparing a presentation, this rather relates to improved operational efficiency rather than a technological breakthrough," Irina Mezheneva, a leading AI engineer and analyst at Gazinformservis, said.

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