Freed Rochdale grooming gang leader was judged ‘high risk’ to children in 2023

The leader of the Rochdale grooming gang was deemed to pose a “very high risk of serious harm” towards children just three years ago, the Guardian can reveal.

Shabir Ahmed, 73, was freed from HMP Leeds on Thursday despite three failed attempts to secure parole, the most recent of which was in October 2024. One document, relating to a previous review in 2023, shows Ahmed was seen to present a “high risk of sexual offending”.

One of his victims, Amber*, said she had been left feeling “physically sick” and unable to sleep as she considered the ongoing danger posed by Ahmed and his contacts.

Amber was one of about 50 girls who were raped, abused and trafficked by Ahmed and his associates from about 2008. A judge said they had been treated “as though they were worthless and beyond any respect” because they were not part of the same community or religion as the offenders, who were mainly of Pakistani heritage.

Although government sources said attempts had been made to inform victims prior to Ahmed’s release, Amber said she had had no contact from the police, the Prison Service or victim support and found out via a message from a friend with a link to a news story.

“I think it said something like ‘predator to be released’, and I was like what the hell, where the hell did this come from?” Amber said. “And then obviously now all over social media, it’s everywhere, and I’m just trying to avoid that.”

Ahmed, who asked his victims to call him “daddy”, was jailed for 22 years in 2012 after being convicted of rape and sexual abuse charges spanning two separate trials.

Ahmed was stripped off his British citizenship after his convictions and his victims were initially told he would be deported to his native Pakistan. However, because he came to the UK before 1971 and lived in the country for more than five years, the government cannot legally remove him. Andy Burnham, widely expected to be the next prime minister, has said he will explore “all possible options” to close this legal loophole.

Parole Board documents seen by the Guardian show Ahmed made repeated attempts to secure early release from prison after becoming eligible in 2022. On each occasion, an expert panel concluded he could not be safely managed in the community due to his denial of his crimes and his failure to engage with programmes designed to address his offending.

The first review, in January 2022, concluded Ahmed had “not sufficiently” reduced the risk factors that prompted his offending, including his “sexual interests and his belief that it was acceptable to sexually abuse underage victims”.

A second review, in January 2023, said: “Reports before the panel indicated that Mr Ahmed would present a very high risk of serious harm towards children and the panel considered he would present a high risk of sexual offending.

“The probation officer had identified a need for Mr Ahmed to complete work to address his identified risk factors. The plan for release required further development and the panel did not consider Mr Ahmed’s level of risk to be manageable in the community.”

In its 2024 review, the Parole Board panel said Ahmed had continued to refuse to engage with specialist sexual offender programmes and felt a plan to manage him in the community was “not robust enough”.

The Parole Board ultimately had no role in Ahmed’s release. He was eligible to be freed automatically, having served two-thirds of his sentence in custody.

Amber, who says she was not asked for her views on any of Ahmed’s attempts for freedom, said: “I feel he should have stayed locked up. He shouldn’t be allowed out. I’m not scared so much of him, I’m scared of his contacts that he’s got. “I feel like for me, I am their target. I just don’t understand why nobody’s putting anything in place.”

Although Ahmed will be banned from entering certain parts of Greater Manchester, including Rochdale, Amber said: “What’s to say that his mates aren’t [allowed in the exclusion zone]? He’s got nothing to lose.”

Amber said she had had to contact her children’s school because she was concerned for their safety. “I’ve had to let everybody know everywhere because I’m literally petrified that something bad’s going to happen, and nobody has been in contact with me to even support me in that,” she said. “In a sense, you can keep yourself busy, [but] you can’t go shopping because you don’t know which town he’s in.”

Amber received a formal apology and a settlement from Greater Manchester police in 2022 over her treatment by the force. Although she and two other women asked to give evidence about their abuse, the majority of their allegations were not prosecuted.

She was also treated as criminal, and risked losing her children when she was listed on the court indictment by the Crown Prosecution Service as a co-conspirator. She had, under pressure from her abusers, taken some of her friends to the takeaway from which the men were operating.

Amber said the apology “was just to tell me: shut up, here’s your paper, shut up, go be quiet somewhere”.

Kate Ellis, a solicitor at Centre for Women’s Justice, the organisation who acted for Amber, said: “Victims of serious sexual offending are usually notified of the perpetrator’s possible release from prison and given an opportunity to raise concerns about their release or proposed licence conditions – not least because they may have serious concerns about their safety.

“If the government’s new early release provisions for sexual offenders are depriving victims of an opportunity to raise such concerns, that should be a cause for serious concern. If victims are not even being notified of their abuser’s proposed release, that is completely unacceptable.”

A Parole Board spokesperson confirmed the organisation had last refused Ahmed’s release in 2024 and said: “The panel carefully examined a huge range of evidence, including details of the original crime, and any evidence of behaviour change, as well as exploring the harm done and impact the crime has had on the victims.”

A government spokesperson said Downing Street was “currently working with colleagues across government to explore all possible options to deport this vile criminal”.

*Name has been changed