All Mariana Islands at risk as super typhoon approaches

Super Typhoon Bavi intensified into a category 5 cyclone early Saturday and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous storm as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands, with forecasters warning residents to complete preparations ahead of deteriorating conditions beginning Sunday.

The latest bulletin on 4 July, from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, highlighted by the National Weather Service Guam, placed Bavi over 700km east-southeast of Saipan with maximum sustained winds of over 257kmph while moving west at about 16kmph.

The storm is forecast to strengthen further to around 281kmph on Sunday before beginning a gradual weakening trend, though it is still expected to pass through the Marianas as a category 5 super typhoon.

The official forecast track has shifted slightly south since Friday but continues to show the centre passing between Rota and Tinian, now closer to Rota. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, while tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the islands sometime Sunday afternoon or evening.

In an interview with Marianas Press shortly after the 7am local time advisory, National Weather Service Guam Warning Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett said Bavi underwent "explosive rapid intensification" overnight and remains on track toward the Marianas.

He said forecast confidence has increased compared with Super Typhoon Sinlaku because both traditional physics-based and artificial intelligence forecast models are tightly clustered around a path between Guam and Saipan.

Aydlett urged residents not to focus on small changes in the forecast track.

"All folks in the Marianas should be considering the likelihood of the center of the typhoon passing over your island," he said.

"Do not take a rosier outlook that it could sway north [or] that could sway south from your island."

He advised residents to seek shelter in reinforced concrete buildings and complete preparations no later than Sunday morning, warning that everyone in the Marianas should prepare for at least tropical storm conditions, with the possibility of a direct strike by a category 5 system.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are also expected, although Aydlett said Bavi is forecast to move faster than Sinlaku, reducing the likelihood of a prolonged multi-day rain event. Even so, torrential rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf remain major hazards as the storm approaches.

Earlier Saturday, before the 7am advisory upgraded Bavi to a super typhoon, Aydlett wrote on social media that the storm would "soon be a Super Typhoon" and warned that any delay or acceleration in its expected turn toward the west-northwest could shift the track closer to either Guam and Rota or Tinian and Saipan.

He stressed that every island in the Marianas remains at risk and urged residents to use the holiday to finish storm preparations.