Rugby league's bumper pay day. But who will foot the bill?

It's the archetypal rugby league post-match cliché from the victorious coach.

"The boys really done us proud. It was a game of two halves, but rugby league was the winner at the end of the day."

Business and team sports have a great deal in common. Matches and corporate seasons usually are divided into two halves, and the outfit with the biggest score is declared the victor.

With a stonking $5 billion-plus broadcast rights deal ready to be inked sometime this week, rugby league, or more correctly the National Rugby League (NRL), really is the winner. And not just at the end of the day.

It has also cemented the position of Peter V'landys, who assumed the chair of the Australian Rugby League Commission in 2019, as the nation's supreme sports administrator.

The seven-year deal, at $700 million a year, is easily the most lucrative television deal in Australian history. That's the bottom of the range. It could rise as high as $800 million if a 20th team is added to the competition.

It easily outstrips the seven-year deal struck by the AFL for $4.5 billion, which kicked off in 2025.

But it is an agreement that raises one very big question. Who, ultimately, will shell out the coin for this whopper transaction?

Will it be a Ukrainian-born billionaire, Nine shareholders or Foxtel subscribers?

When friends fall out

When negotiations over the new NRL broadcasting rights deal began last year, horseracing and football powerbroker V'landys warned both Foxtel and Nine of colluding on a joint bid.

He needn't have bothered.

For more than 30 years, the pair have divvied up the spoils when it comes to rugby league.

Nine has broadcast limited games on free-to-air television as part of a federal government system that ensured televised sport was available to all free of charge, while Foxtel subscribers had a much larger offering.

While there has been friction between the pair during that time, the relationship fundamentally shifted around a decade ago after Nine created its own streaming service, Stan.

From an uncomfortable partnership, the relationship gradually transformed into outright competition.

Stan nabbed some global soccer rights, including all the English Premier League games, Champions League, regional rugby union, the four grand slam tennis games and some motor sports, but always had its eye on a bigger prize.

For streaming and cable services, sport is paramount. It anchors viewers to your network and allows you to charge a premium.

This time around, Nine was desperate to secure a win while Foxtel was determined to defend its patch.

And so, the bidding war began.

Foxtel went it alone with a bid that would cut Nine out of the race by offloading games to rival free-to-air network Seven.

Nine attempted to outbid Foxtel for the entire package with an offer to secure the streaming rights for Stan in conjunction with its long-running free-to-air offering.

That put V'landys in the box seat, happily fending off escalating bids from a pair that have been partners forever.

V'landys approached the negotiations from a position of strength.

The NRL's finances have improved dramatically in recent years with five consecutive cash surpluses. The vast lift in cashflow from broadcast rights helped.

But stronger crowds, government injections through adding a PNG team, and competition from states to host State of Origin matches have bolstered the coffers.

A leak in time

A little over a week ago, details of the bids were made public in the Nine newspapers.

"Maybe they wanted to deflect from the furore surrounding Karl Stefanovic," one insider joked.

But the well-timed leak was more likely an attempt by Nine to push the deal across the line.

Foxtel was to pay $500 million a year, Nine would spend $150 million and a New Zealand broadcaster $50 million a year.

If a 20th team joined the NRL, the amount would increase. Add in some contra deals on advertising and, all up, the seven-year arrangement could be worth as much as $5.3 billion.

But the leak may have had the opposite effect. Instead of preceding an imminent announcement, there has been radio silence from NRL headquarters.

On Tuesday, the unofficial word was that some last-minute details needed to be ironed out. On Wednesday, negotiations were ongoing. By Thursday, the message was: "Nothing to say at this time."

There have since been unconfirmed reports that both media groups have continued negotiations with V'landys over gaining sole rights to the code.

Who will foot the bill?

V'landys has always been insistent that viewers shouldn't be slugged with extra fees to watch footy.

But someone has to pay.

Over the past decade, the NRL broadcast rights have risen from slightly above $1 billion to the soon-to-be-announced $5 billion-plus arrangement.

For Nine, it creates an existential crisis.

Former Nine boss Hugh Marks, now the ABC managing director, struck the deal for Nine's free-to-air rights through the COVID era for $90 million a year.

His successor Mike Sneesby upped that to $115 million. Under the new offer, Nine will now be paying $150 million in cash.

With advertising revenues in free fall following three interest rate hikes and plummeting business confidence, that puts Nine's earnings under pressure.

Nine's share price has fallen around 10 per cent since April but, so far, hasn't reacted since details of the bid were leaked.

Foxtel, meanwhile, is in a much stronger position than Nine.

One of the best-performing businesses in the Australian media landscape, it is now owned by DAZN, a UK-based global media group controlled by Ukrainian-born billionaire Len Blavatnik with backing from Saudi Arabia.

But it will still need to wrangle extra revenue, particularly since its former record-setting deal to secure streaming rights for AFL set it back $500 million. With the NRL under its belt, that is $1 billion a year in costs for just two codes.

Foxtel's ability to lift subscription prices will be kept in check by mounting cost-of-living pressures as struggling households try to rein in expenses, forcing the streaming operator to look at commercial customers for extra cash.

But some hotel owners, who can't operate without sports broadcasts, are up in arms.

"This whole rights deal is good for some, but not for others," one pub owner posted on Reddit.

"As a licensed venue, I now have to pay $4,120 a month for Foxtel. All I need it for is the NRL.

"That's $50,000 a year. I was paying $2,600 a month, which was still outrageous. And before you ask, I'm not allowed to screen Kayo or FoxtelGo."