People’s Party leadership under scrutiny

The June 28 elections for Bangkok governor, Bangkok city councillors and Pattaya mayor delivered the most significant electoral setback yet for the main opposition People’s Party (PP), raising fresh questions about its leadership, electoral strategy and ability to convert national popularity into victories in executive contests.

While the party maintained a strong presence in the Bangkok Metropolitan Council, its disappointing performances in the two high-profile executive races exposed weaknesses that analysts say could shape Thailand’s political landscape ahead of the next general election.

The clearest message came from the Bangkok governor election, where Chadchart Sittipunt secured a landslide re-election with 1.44 million votes, surpassing the 1.3 million he received in his historic 2022 victory.

His commanding mandate reinforced his personal popularity and demonstrated the electoral strength of an incumbent widely regarded by Bangkok residents as competent, pragmatic and above partisan politics.

By contrast, People’s Party candidate Chaiwat Sathawornwichit finished a distant third with 176,934 votes, a result that fell well short of expectations for the largest opposition party.

The contrast between the governor and council elections was perhaps the most revealing aspect of the polls.

Although voters overwhelmingly rejected the gubernatorial candidate of the People’s Party, they handed it 22 of Bangkok’s 50 council seats, allowing it to remain the largest political bloc on the city council.

This split-ticket voting suggests many Bangkok voters continue to support the PP as an institution while harbouring reservations about its choice of executive candidate.

Political observers argue that the results reflect a distinction in voters’ minds between legislative representation and executive leadership.

For council seats, where party ideology and local policy platforms play a larger role, the People’s Party retained much of its urban support base.

For governor, however, voters appeared to prioritise experience, administrative performance and proven leadership over party affiliation.

Many analysts believe a sizeable number of traditional PP supporters crossed party lines to vote for Mr Chadchart while returning to the party’s candidates in the council races.

Such voting behaviour is uncommon in Thailand’s highly partisan political environment, but it highlights the unique appeal Mr Chadchart has cultivated during his first term.

His administration focused heavily on visible urban improvements, digital governance, public engagement and infrastructure maintenance, reinforcing his image as an effective administrator rather than a conventional politician.

For many Bangkok residents, continuity appears to have outweighed the appeal of political change. The election has also reignited debate over the candidate selection process of the People’s Party. Mr Chaiwat entered the race with significantly lower public recognition than Mr Chadchart and struggled to articulate a compelling alternative vision throughout the campaign.

Despite the party’s sophisticated campaign machinery and strong social media presence, the contest never appeared genuinely competitive.

Some analysts argue the party underestimated the challenge of unseating a highly popular incumbent, while others believe it failed to nominate a candidate with sufficient executive experience or citywide appeal.

The election disappointment extended beyond Bangkok.

In Pattaya’s mayoral election, the PP also suffered a heavy defeat, heightening concerns that the party remains considerably stronger in legislative contests than in executive elections that require broad cross-sectional appeal.

The twin defeats have intensified both internal and external criticism of the party’s leadership.

Attention has increasingly shifted to party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, who assumed the role following the court-ordered dissolution of the former Move Forward Party and the subsequent establishment of the PP.

Some commentators, including voices traditionally sympathetic to the party, have described June 28 as a “hat-trick” of defeats — losing the Bangkok governorship, underperforming in the Bangkok council race relative to expectations despite securing the largest bloc, and failing in Pattaya.

These outcomes have prompted calls for Mr Natthaphong to accept responsibility and step aside.

Jessada Denduangboripant, a biology lecturer at Chulalongkorn University and a prominent science communicator, has weighed in on the debate, suggesting the party’s leadership should take responsibility for repeated electoral defeats.

In a social media post, he wrote: “After suffering repeated defeats like this, if this were in the United Kingdom, the party leader would resign, and a new leader would be chosen. If the same person remains party leader in the next election, I’ll probably have to look for another party to vote for.”

Although such demands remain largely confined to political commentators and online supporters rather than senior party figures, they reflect growing frustration among sections of the party’s base.

Critics argue that the PP has struggled to redefine its identity following its transition from the MFP and has yet to demonstrate that it can consistently compete beyond parliamentary politics.

Supporters of Mr Natthaphong, however, caution against reading too much into local elections.

They note that gubernatorial and municipal contests often revolve around personalities rather than party brands, particularly in Bangkok, where independent candidates have historically performed well.

They also point out that retaining 22 council seats demonstrates the party’s organisational resilience and suggests its urban voter base remains largely intact.

Indeed, the split result may offer a more nuanced picture than the headline defeats suggest.

Rather than signalling a collapse in the PP’s popularity, the elections indicate voters are becoming increasingly selective.

Support for the party’s policy agenda appears to remain substantial, but voters may be seeking different qualities when choosing executive leaders responsible for managing complex local administrations.

This distinction carries some important implications for the PP’s future electoral strategy.

If the party hopes to govern at every level, it may need to broaden its recruitment beyond ideological figures and younger politicians to include experienced administrators, technocrats and local leaders with established public service records, one observer noted.

The election also demonstrates the enduring importance of candidate quality, even in an era of strong party branding.

Despite the PP’s electoral momentum in recent years, Mr Chadchart’s overwhelming victory suggests that highly popular incumbents remain extremely difficult to defeat, regardless of party affiliation.

Looking ahead, the June 28 results are unlikely to threaten the PP’s status as a principal opposition force. However, they do expose strategic questions that cannot easily be ignored.

Can the party translate parliamentary popularity into executive victories?

Has it become overly dependent on its brand while neglecting candidate selection?

Can its current leadership convince supporters that the setbacks represent temporary obstacles rather than symptoms of deeper structural weaknesses?

The answers will matter not only for Bangkok but also for the broader national political contest, the observer said.

If the party successfully interprets the lessons of June 28, the elections may ultimately prove a valuable course correction ahead of the next general election.

If it fails to adapt, however, the triple setback could mark the beginning of a longer period of introspection for a party that, until recently, appeared politically unstoppable, the observer added.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul cannot distance himself from the recruitment exam cheating scandal, say analysts, since it occurred on his watch as Interior Minister.

Who pays for the exam scandal?

The recruitment-rigging scheme involving exams held to fill 6,669 local administrative positions has quickly become one of the country’s biggest scandals. The central question now is whether the investigation will reach those believed to have orchestrated it.

The probe began after thousands of candidates complained of irregularities in examinations for positions under the Department of Local Administration (DLA), which attracted more than 400,000 applicants nationwide.

Many candidates who received zero marks requested copies of their answer sheets from Srinakharinwirot University (SWU), which had been contracted by the department to organise the examinations.

Several claimed their answer sheets appeared to have been altered, while others questioned whether the documents shown to them were their original papers at all.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) subsequently coordinated with the Central Investigation Bureau’s anti-corruption division to raid a house in Nonthaburi.

Inside, authorities found 11 people, some dressed in civil servant uniforms, and seized 18 computers being used to alter examination scores for candidates who reportedly paid brokers between 300,000 and 800,000 baht, depending on the position and province.

Investigators said they discovered more than 3,000 copied answer sheets, with over 2,000 already altered in the system. They also seized lists identifying individuals whose scores were due to be changed.

One suspect admitted altering examination scores but claimed he believed he had merely been hired to enter data into the computer system. While the scale of the alleged recruitment-rigging operation is vast, many political observers believe those most likely to face punishment will be lower-ranking officials rather than the political figures alleged to have controlled the network.

They argue the operation could not have functioned without the involvement of influential figures with authority over appointments within the Interior Ministry, where more than 1,500 positions are reportedly available for allocation through political patronage networks.

Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political scientist at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said the case appears to be backed by unusually strong evidence.

However, both the department and the university have so far avoided accepting responsibility, while the government has yet to explain how the irregularities occurred or who should ultimately be held accountable, he said.

According to Mr Phichai, the alleged scheme cannot be viewed simply as misconduct by a handful of officials. Rather, the investigation will test whether Thai society is prepared to confront corruption involving influential political interests.

He noted that the recruitment process took place over a period when the Interior Ministry remained under the leadership of Bhumjaithai leader and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

“The interior minister cannot simply distance himself from the case,” Mr Phichai said.

He questioned whether investigators would be able to identify those behind the operation. Mr Phichai said the case would test whether the NACC could restore public confidence by demonstrating how far the investigation could reach and who might ultimately be implicated.

He also referred to an audio clip circulating online involving two key figures believed to be connected to the recruitment network. According to Mr Phichai, the recording may indicate internal conflict within the network, although it remains unclear who the individuals are connected to politically.

“What is clear is that both individuals appear to be part of a network that allegedly offered government positions in exchange for money. The people able to allocate those positions would have to be those currently holding political power,” he said.

Mr Phichai said resolving the problem would require strong political will, something that remains difficult under Thailand’s patronage system. He added that the prime minister would find it difficult to take decisive action.

“The prime minister can do very little because any serious action would inevitably affect powerful political interests,” he said.

He also criticised the government’s initial response after the scandal emerged.

Rather than simply ordering a new examination, Mr Phichai said the government should temporarily suspend officials directly connected to the recruitment process while the investigation continues.

He said this should include the deputy interior minister responsible for the matter and former directors-general of the DLA, adding that the SWU rector should also be suspended.

“We should step up pressure on the prime minister, who is also the interior chief,” he said.

The priority, he added, should be to prevent anyone connected to the case from interfering with witnesses or evidence.

“However, much will depend on whether the NACC can do more than it has in the past.”