Brazil’s Trade Surplus Jumps 67% — Even as the US Threatens Tariffs

Markets

Key Facts

—The headline. Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $9.8bn in June, up almost 67 percent from the same month a year earlier.

—A record flow. Exports and imports together reached $62.8bn, the highest monthly trade flow in the historical series.

—The surprise. Sales to the United States rose about 4 percent from May to June, even as the two countries negotiate to avoid new 25 percent tariffs.

—The drivers. Oil, soybeans, meat and iron ore led the gains, with the crude price up more than 67 percent from a year earlier.

—The half-year. The surplus for January to June reached $42.4bn, well above the $30.2bn logged in the same period of 2025.

—The upgrade. The trade ministry lifted its 2026 surplus forecast from $72.1bn to $90bn, which would be the second-highest on record.

The Brazil trade surplus is defying the trade war rather than shrinking under it, with June sales to the United States actually rising as the two governments argue over tariffs. The numbers point to an economy still selling the world what it wants at a moment of global strain.

For an investor watching from London or Munich, this is the reassuring read beneath the political noise. Brazil’s export machine is running hot even as Washington threatens penalties on its goods.

What the June Brazil trade surplus showed

According to figures released on Friday by Brazil’s trade ministry, known by its Portuguese initials MDIC, the country ran a surplus of nine point eight billion dollars in June. That was almost sixty-seven percent higher than the same month last year.

A trade surplus simply means a country sold more abroad than it bought. Brazil’s was the third-strongest June on record, behind only the same month in 2021 and 2023.

The combined value of what Brazil sold and bought, a measure the ministry calls trade flow, hit sixty-two point eight billion dollars. That is the largest figure for any single month in the country’s records.

Selling more to the United States, not less

The most striking part is the direction of trade with the United States. Sales there rose about four percent between May and June, even as officials negotiate to head off new tariffs of twenty-five percent on Brazilian products.

That runs against the story a reader might expect from the headlines. The tariff fight is real, but for now Brazilian goods are still flowing north in growing volumes.

The wider export gain was led by the extractive industry, followed by manufacturing and farm goods. Oil did much of the work, with the crude price up more than sixty-seven percent from a year earlier, alongside stronger sales of soybeans, meat and soymeal.

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil — Live Market Board

B3 · São Paulo

Jul 4, 2026 · 07:30

Ibovespa · benchmark

174,070

+0.74%

L 172,790day rangeH 174,664

+23.52% over 12 months

Market breadth · 15 names

80% advancing

12 ▲ advancing3 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.17

-0.02%

EUR / BRL

5.91

-0.42%

Selic rate

14.25%

·

Brent crude

72.13

+0.46%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Mining

+2.16%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Utilities

+1.56%

ENEV3

Financials

+1.02%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Energy

+0.75%

PETR4, PRIO3

Industrials

+0.48%

WEGE3, RENT3

Materials

+0.05%

SUZB3

Consumer Staples

-0.06%

ABEV3

Consumer Disc.

-1.15%

AZZA3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil

174,070

+0.74%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico

67,060

-0.02%

S&P IPSAChile

10,821

+0.55%

S&P MERVALArgentina

3,196,900

+1.26%

MSCI COLCAPColombia

2,295.72

+1.57%

BVL S&P PerúPeru

55,809.71

+0.30%

Full instrument board

Instrument

Last

Change

YoY

Prev.

High

Low

Volume

IBOV

174,070

+0.74%

+23.52%

172,788

174,664

172,790

—

USD/BRL

5.17

-0.02%

-4.78%

5.17

5.17

5.17

—

SELIC

14.25%

—

—

—

—

—

PETR4

38.25

+0.76%

+18.94%

37.96

38.25

37.86

10,360,300

VALE3

78.84

+0.77%

+43.24%

78.24

79.04

78.01

7,790,000

ITUB4

42.74

+0.64%

+16.74%

42.47

42.89

42.53

9,857,300

BBDC4

18.26

+2.51%

+9.01%

17.81

18.39

18.20

11,769,000

BBAS3

19.98

-0.10%

-10.40%

20.00

20.28

19.98

8,227,100

B3SA3

14.76

+1.03%

+0.96%

14.61

14.99

14.66

14,046,200

ABEV3

16.29

-0.06%

+20.85%

16.30

16.45

16.15

6,923,200

WEGE3

46.48

+0.48%

+8.83%

46.26

46.90

46.27

2,348,000

PRIO3

52.96

+0.74%

+24.38%

52.57

53.13

52.21

7,754,500

SUZB3

40.80

+0.05%

-21.63%

40.78

40.99

40.56

2,485,800

RENT3

41.45

+0.48%

+5.61%

41.25

41.86

41.30

2,770,300

AZZA3

17.14

-1.15%

-58.26%

17.34

17.76

17.10

1,067,800

CSNA3

4.82

+4.33%

-41.43%

4.62

4.83

4.66

10,119,200

GGBR4

21.44

+1.37%

+27.70%

21.15

21.57

21.25

6,278,800

ENEV3

26.63

+1.56%

+92.97%

26.22

26.76

26.12

3,675,400

Largest moves today

CSNA3

4.82

+4.33%

BBDC4

18.26

+2.51%

ENEV3

26.63

+1.56%

GGBR4

21.44

+1.37%

AZZA3

17.14

-1.15%

B3SA3

14.76

+1.03%

VALE3

78.84

+0.77%

PETR4

38.25

+0.76%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 0.74%, with breadth positive — 12 of 15 names higher. Mining led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.

From The Rio Times

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Why the Brazil trade surplus forecast just jumped

The half-year picture was strong enough to change the official outlook. Between January and June the surplus reached forty-two point four billion dollars, up from thirty point two billion in the same stretch of 2025.

The underlying totals were large in their own right. Exports over the six months came to about one hundred eighty-five billion dollars and imports to roughly one hundred forty-two billion, leaving the widest first-half gap in years.

On the strength of that, the ministry raised its full-year surplus forecast from seventy-two point one billion to ninety billion dollars. If it holds, that would be the second-highest annual surplus Brazil has ever recorded.

The export projection was lifted too, to three hundred ninety-four billion dollars for the year. That is thirty billion above the figure the ministry gave back in April, a sharp upward revision in just two months.

Behind the numbers sits a familiar Brazilian strength. Half the gain came from higher world prices for its commodities and half from simply shipping more, a combination that cushions the country when any single market turns difficult.

The Rio Times notes one open question the ministry itself flagged. Its trade-statistics director said it is still too early to measure how the new Mercosur trade deal with the European Union will lift exports, though importers there are already showing more interest.

How big was the Brazil trade surplus in June?

Brazil ran a trade surplus of nine point eight billion dollars in June, almost sixty-seven percent higher than a year earlier. Total trade flow reached sixty-two point eight billion dollars, the highest for any single month on record.

Did the US tariff threat hurt Brazilian exports?

Not so far. Sales to the United States rose about four percent from May to June, even while the two governments negotiate to avoid new twenty-five percent tariffs on Brazilian goods.

What is Brazil’s trade surplus forecast for 2026?

The trade ministry raised its forecast from seventy-two point one billion to ninety billion dollars, citing strong first-half exports. That would be the second-largest annual surplus in Brazil’s history.