Portugal heads to NATO summit confident it is in U.S.A’s ‘good books’

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro will arrive the NATO Summit, opening in Turkey on Tuesday, carrying something no previous Portuguese leader has been able to claim: defence spending above NATO’s long-standing 2% of GDP target.

According to Expresso, Montenegro will use Portugal’s achievement—along with closer defence cooperation centred on the Azores’ Lajes Air Base and a new North Atlantic maritime security pact—to reinforce Lisbon’s strategic value to the United States as NATO allies prepare for a new era of European defence.

The NATO summit, taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday in Ankara, comes at a pivotal moment as European members face growing pressure to shoulder more responsibility for conventional defence while the United States continues to provide NATO’s nuclear deterrent.

Portugal seeks to stand out within NATO

Expresso reports that Portugal’s defence spending, now calculated at 2.01% of GDP, has already drawn praise from the United States. Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, has welcomed Portugal’s achievement, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has commended Lisbon for facilitating the transit of American military aircraft through Lajes Air Base in the Azores when other countries were not so immediately accommodating.

The paper suggests those factors could help Montenegro secure favourable recognition from US President Donald Trump – particularly at a time when Spain has adopted a more truculent stance towards Washington over defence spending.

Portugal’s 2.01% figure, however, is not based solely on Defence Ministry expenditure.

According to figures previously provided by the government to Expresso, direct Defence Ministry spending amounts to €4.1 billion, with a further €2 billion contributed by other government departments.

Defence Minister Nuno Melo this week detailed the breakdown in parliament, saying the additional spending includes €1.1 billion from the Finance Ministry covering military pensions, €266 million from the Internal Administration Ministry, €63 million from the Foreign Affairs Ministry and €558 million from other ministries, bringing total defence-related expenditure to €6.1 billion.

Atlantic security takes centre stage

Beyond defence spending, Portugal is expected to emphasise NATO’s Atlantic dimension.

Minister Melo recently revealed that Portugal has joined a new North Atlantic Maritime Security Pact – an initiative involving Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

The agreement, reported by Expresso, notably excludes both the United States and Spain.

The pact is intended to strengthen European and Canadian cooperation over the next decade through increased joint naval exercises and expanded maritime surveillance, particularly to protect critical infrastructure such as the submarine communications cables that cross waters under Portuguese jurisdiction.

The initiative is widely seen as part of Europe’s effort to develop greater strategic autonomy while remaining within NATO.

Portugal is also expected to reaffirm its support for Ukraine during discussions on NATO’s eastern flank while arguing that safeguarding the Atlantic remains equally vital to the alliance’s future.

Future of Lajes remains uncertain

Despite recent signs of closer cooperation with Washington, uncertainty remains over the long-term American military presence at Lajes Air Base.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has announced a review of America’s global military footprint, including bases in Europe, leaving questions over the future role of the Azores installation.

Expresso notes, however, that several factors could work in Portugal’s favour. As Spain’s relationship with Washington becomes more complicated and Arctic shipping routes gain importance, the Azores could become increasingly valuable as a strategic hub in the North Atlantic for military logistics and maritime surveillance.

Montenegro is expected to present Portugal as a reliable Atlantic ally at a summit likely to be dominated by debates over military spending, European burden-sharing and NATO’s long-term strategic priorities.

Donald Trump himself has said he will be attending the summit, thus ‘anything could happen’.

Talking to Deutsche Welle today, Claudia Major, a trans-Atlantic security expert at the German Marshall Fund think tank, suggests leaders of the various countries attending are all ‘worried’ and intent on trying to “please Trump and to make a case for NATO”.

Donald Trump has made no secret of his exasperation with NATO at times, particularly in the general reluctance to ‘come on board’ once the United States and Israel began attacking Iran.

Predicting the outcome of the summit, Politico points out that President Trump has “refashioned the alliance into something far different from its original intention”, but something that he is “more comfortable with”: a business.

The United States leader has “persuaded NATO members to turbocharge their own defense spending and to invest heavily in American arms for Ukraine. This week  (…) the U.S. president will again turn the focus into how much Europeans can spend on American military equipment”.

Source material: Expresso/ Deutsche Welle/ Politico