Bavi to enhance habagat; isolated storms in next 24 hours -- Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — Most parts of the country will continue to experience isolated rain showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, while Super Typhoon Bavi is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon, or habagat, later this week.

The state weather bureau said that on Monday even as Bavi remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In its public weather forecast, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the easterlies continue to affect the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon, bringing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms over Cagayan Valley and Aurora.

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READ: Tropical Storm ‘Bavi’ heads for Aurora

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Metro Manila and the rest of the country are also expected to experience partly to mostly cloudy skies, with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms due to localized activity.

Pagasa warned that severe thunderstorms may trigger flash floods or landslides in affected areas.

Weather specialist Grace Castañeda-Carpio said scattered convective clouds remain present across the country, resulting in brief but sometimes intense thunderstorms.

“If we experience rain this afternoon and evening, these will mostly be isolated or sudden rain showers, accompanied by lightning and thunder, caused by the easterlies and localized thunderstorms. Short periods of heavy rainfall are still possible, so we advise the public to remain cautious.”

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Bavi still outside PAR

As of 3 p.m. Monday, Bavi was estimated at 2,120 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 205 kilometers per hour near the center, gusts of up to 250 kph, and moving west-northwestward at 20 kph.

Pagasa emphasized that the cyclone has no direct effect on the country at present, but said its expected movement could begin influencing weather conditions later this week.

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“At present, it is not affecting any part of the country. However, in the coming days—most likely during the second half of the week—we expect Typhoon Bavi and the southwest monsoon to affect various parts of the country,” Castañeda-Carpio said.

Based on the weather bureau’s latest track forecast, Bavi is expected to enter PAR between Tuesday evening and early Wednesday, when it will be assigned the local name Inday.

READ: Bavi may enter PAR Tuesday night or Wednesday morning – Pagasa

Pagasa’s latest forecast track shows Bavi moving generally west-northwestward toward the area east of Taiwan.

Castañeda-Carpio said the weather bureau’s forecast cone of confidence indicates that Bavi’s projected path could still shift farther north or farther south.

“If its track shifts farther south, we also cannot rule out the possibility of raising wind signals over the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas, possibly as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, based on current forecasts, that scenario remains less likely.”

She also said Bavi’s broad circulation could still bring strong winds to parts of Northern Luzon even if the cyclone does not make landfall.

“The system covers a fairly wide area. That’s why we expect that even if it does not make landfall over any part of the country, wind signals may still be raised over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon, possibly as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.”

Habagat expected to strengthen

Meanwhile, Pagasa said Bavi is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon beginning Wednesday.

The enhanced monsoon is forecast to bring periods of rain over the southwestern portion of Mindanao on Wednesday before expanding to the western sections of Southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao by Thursday. By Friday, monsoon rains may also affect the western sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, the Visayas, Mindanao and the Ilocos Region.

Pagasa said the enhanced monsoon could produce moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas, raising the risk of flooding, particularly in the western sections of the country.

The agency has already issued a weather advisory covering Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon, with 50 to 100 millimeters of rainfall possible over Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani due to the southwest monsoon. It added that additional areas may be included in succeeding advisories depending on the forecast.

Sea conditions

Sea conditions remain generally favorable for fishing and small sea vessels, as no gale warning has been raised. However, Pagasa said a gale warning may be issued as early as Wednesday over the country’s eastern seaboard as Bavi approaches PAR.

For Tuesday, Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan are expected to continue experiencing partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

By Tuesday night, cloudier skies and a higher chance of rain are forecast over parts of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and the Zamboanga Peninsula due to the southwest monsoon.

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Pagasa urged the public to continue monitoring official forecasts and advisories as Bavi moves closer to PAR and the southwest monsoon becomes more active in the coming days. /mr