Vance or Rubio: Is Trump's 2028 heir already chosen?

Who is Trump's likely Republican successor

Vice President JD Vance has emerged as President Donald Trump's undisputed political heir for 2028, according to an Axios analysis, following a summer that saw him broker a tentative Iran peace deal, publish a bestselling book and embark on a media blitz that has impressed the current US President."JD is earning it, and Trump sees it," a senior Trump adviser told Axios, adding that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the other top Trump aide seen as a potential heir, "wasn't planning to run anyway, and he'd be even less likely to do so now."For months, Trump has compared and almost pitted Vance and Rubio against one another, asking advisers whom they'd prefer at the top of a 2028 ticket. That parlor game is now on hold. "POTUS isn't asking, 'JD or Marco?' anymore," said one insider. "He's no longer asking, 'How's JD doing?' He's now saying, 'JD looks great, right?'"

The turning point for Vance came in mid-June, when he and presidential envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff helped broker the memorandum of understanding with Iran, a step toward ending the war.

The day before, Vance's new book, "Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith," was published.Vance, already scheduled for a book tour, benefited from the breaking-news attention on his role in the peace talks. He gave a total of 33 interviews in June, from conservative podcasts to a White House press briefing to sit-downs with HBO and ABC."He (Trump) saw the clips and loved what he saw," one of Trump's advisers said.Vance has hit the fundraising circuit for the Republican National Committee and has accounted for about $70 million in contributions, a crucial network he would tap if he runs for president.

Among Republicans, his net favorability rating is 62%, just shy of Trump's 65% and well above Rubio's 51%, according to polling released last month by Navigator Research.Vance also leads other potential GOP rivals in national and early state polls.

The Murdoch dinner

A new book, "Regime Change," by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, recounts an Oct. 16, 2025 dinner where Trump asked Rupert Murdoch to compare Vance and Rubio. With both men sitting awkwardly at the table, Murdoch was notably more effusive about Rubio, calling him "brilliant," while saying Vance had "the potential to be great."The media mogul had privately tried to talk Trump out of choosing Vance as his running mate in 2024.Rubio has made it clear he has no desire to wage a primary campaign for president. He doesn't have the infrastructure for a possible campaign that Vance does, namely a stable of political consultants and insiders ready to work on his behalf."Marco doesn't have pipe hitters. Vance does," said one Rubio ally. "JD's looking good. And everyone in the administration knows it."