US poised to escalate tensions with Iran again - expert

MOSCOW, July 6. /TASS/. The United States is prepared for a new round of confrontation with Iran, an escalation that could once again destabilize global oil markets, Ivan Timofeyev, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, has warned.

"The main question is: how stable is this pause? In other words, how long will the peace last? There is a lot of talk about a US defeat and an Iranian victory — and that is partly true. The US and Israel have had to accept that Iranian statehood did not collapse, that Iran stood its ground and must be reckoned with. However, a retreat does not mean abandoning their strategic plans and intentions," Timofeyev said during a Valdai Club panel discussion titled "War, Sanctions, Supply and Demand: Oil Markets After the Gulf Crisis."

"I believe what we are seeing now is a remission, but this remission has every chance of being short-lived and turning into a new crisis. If it takes on a military dimension, we could see a recurrence of the recent disruptions in market access for Persian Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas," the expert noted.

Timofeyev pointed out that Iran remains a formidable adversary for the United States.

"I think that at an opportune moment, the US may again attempt to step up its offensive policy toward Iran. If we look at US-Iranian relations, they are generally characterized by a certain cyclical nature. I would even say it is a spiraling dynamic rather than a cyclical one," he explained.

According to the expert, every remission is followed by a shift toward deeper deterioration compared to previous stages.

"The previous remission occurred under [former US President Joe] Biden, but it failed to restore the agreements enshrined in UN Resolution 2231," Timofeyev concluded.