Somalia: A Report Warns Somalia Security Deteriorating Amid Political Divisions

Mogadishu — The European Union's asylum agency has warned that Somalia's security situation has significantly worsened, citing deepening political divisions and growing instability that have allowed the Al-Shabaab militant group to expand its influence.

The report provides an update on the security situation at both the country and regional levels. It presents an overview at the country level of the main security trends and conflict dynamics during the reference period (1 April 2025 - 31 March 2026).

In a 137-page report, the European Union Agency for Asylum said Al-Shabaab had increased its presence in several regions, including Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bay and Bakool, taking advantage of political disputes and weak state institutions.

The report praised Puntland for what it described as significant gains against the Islamic State group in the Calmiskaad mountains, saying military operations in the Bari region had substantially weakened the group's capabilities.

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It also noted that Turkey had increased military support to Somalia, including military equipment and combat aircraft that have participated in operations against Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, though the report said the campaign had yet to achieve decisive results.

According to the EUAA, political tensions between Somalia's federal government and the regional administrations of Puntland and Jubaland have undermined security cooperation and complicated efforts to combat Al-Shabaab. Disputes over the constitution, elections and the allocation of development projects remain unresolved, it said.

The agency further expressed concern about the financial situation of the African Union mission in Somalia, warning that severe funding shortages had weakened its operational capacity against the insurgency.

The warning comes after the United States announced plans to end funding for the African Union mission in Somalia by December 2026, a move that has raised concerns about the future of international support for Somali security operations.

The report concluded that continued political fragmentation, insecurity and humanitarian challenges pose a major threat to Somalia's stability and could enable Al-Shabaab to further expand its reach across the country.