China missile test sends strong signal to South Pacific - law expert

An analyst for a ship tracking company says the timing of China's missile test was "particularly interesting," and the presence of a third ship near Fiji "raises a few eyebrows."

An international law expert also says while the test is not illegal, it sends a very strong signal to the South Pacific it is in Beijing's sights.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters on Monday said the government had been informed only hours before China launched a long-range ballistic missile into the South Pacific.

Peters said he was deeply concerned by it, and that it was "not consistent with regional stability, and peace in the South Pacific."

Starboard Maritime Intelligence maritime domain analyst Mark Douglas told RNZ this was not the first time China had conducted a test like this, but acknowledged it set a precedent "we may not want in the Pacific."

"It is continuing a pattern, certainly."

He said the timing was interesting, given that Australia and Fiji had signed a security alliance the same day, and then "so soon afterwards for China to do a submarine launched ballistic missile test."

In a statement to RNZ, Defence Minister Chris Penk said the government was discussing the Ocean of Peace Alliance.

"We view anything that makes the region more secure as a good thing. The Alliance reinforces that Pacific security should be Pacific-led," he said.

Douglas said the satellite tracking vessels Starboard Maritime Intelligence had been monitoring left China on 25 June, so the missile test was not something that happened in the "spur of the moment."

"They've had to get the vessels in place.

"The submarine, which we clearly can't track, has been out to find its place and to launch," he added, so while the time was interesting, Douglas thought it had been "planned for a while, and likely will happen again."

He said China had a fleet of satellite tracking vessels - very large ships with a number of large satellite dish looking things on top - that could also be used for missile tests.

When a missile is launched, they were also able to track them, "so that you can get all the telemetry and data to make sure that the missile is doing what's expected."

"When they say a test, it is a test to make sure that the missile works as it's designed, and so getting that data is an important part of it," said Douglas.

Asked if that training and data gathering was business as usual, or whether New Zealand should be concerned, Douglas said "letting this become business as usual would be the concern."

Douglas said it was also interesting that while there were two tracking vessels out at sea most likely connected to the test, there was a third satellite tracking vessel that was alongside in Suva, Fiji today.

"So while the announcement was being signed by Australia and Fiji, and while this test was being carried out, there was a Chinese satellite tracking vessel alongside the wharf there.

He said it most likely was not involved in tracking the missile test, because it was hard to do that from Fiji, and it was doing something else - but the analysts were not sure what.

He wasn't reading too much into it, but "it certainly raises a few eyebrows."

Not illegal but strong signal - law professor

Law professor Al Gillespie told RNZ these sorts of tests were not illegal, and it was positive that China gave advance warning.

Nonetheless, he said, the missile test sent a very strong signal to the South Pacific that it was in the sights of Beijing.

Gillespie said these sorts of actions normally occurred to "express displeasure at developments."

He referenced the renegotiation of Australia's relationship with the Solomon Islands, and New Zealand getting the "upper hand" in the Cook Islands relationship. The Fiji-Australia deal was also pushing in the same direction, he said.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese - who signed the deal in Suva - was next set to visit Solomon Islands and its new Prime Minister Matthew Wale on Tuesday.

Elected in May, Wale was previously the opposition leader for Solomon Islands and had long opposed the deal struck with former PM Manasseh Sogavare allowing China to deploy police and troops, calling it a threat to national unity.

Wale, who has been pushing for Pacific-wide security agreement, visited Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters in New Zealand a month ago.

Gillespie suggested New Zealand would likely respond to the missile launch by moving closer to Australia and America militarily, but a better response would be to develop a protocol to the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone - if this was where it landed.

He said the Pacific should not become a contested zone, but New Zealand should strive to cooperate with the People's Republic of China where possible.

"It is when it gets into debates about security that it becomes heightened."

He thought Peters' statement outlining New Zealand's concern about the missile launch was very good, balanced and well reflective of the region, who would be watching "how the big players react" he said.