Live: Wall Street closes at record as oil prices settle to pre-Iran war levels

The key Wall Street index has closed at a record mark on enthusiasm about chip makers and as oil prices settle to where they were before the war in Iran.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

Disclaimer: This blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:37am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:37am

Market snapshot

By Daniel Ziffer

ASX 200 futures: +0.03% to 8,813 points

Australian dollar: +0.04% to 69.5 US cents

Dow Jones: +0.3% to 53,055.9 points

S&P 500: +0.7% to 7,537 points

Nasdaq: +1.1% to 26,121 points

FTSE: -0.2% to 10,651 points

EuroStoxx: -0.4% to 650 points

Spot gold: -0.2% to $US4,163/ounce

Brent crude: -0.1% to $US72.07/barrel

Iron ore: +0.5% to $US98.25/tonne

Bitcoin: +1% to $US64,246

Prices current around 7:30am AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

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Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:44am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:44am

ICYMI: House prices set to keep falling, says HSBC

By Daniel Ziffer

What's going to happen to house prices?

HSBC's chief economist in Australia, Paul Bloxham yesterday released a pretty searing note. Here are the top lines:

"Last week's monthly figures for June showed that national housing prices are falling solidly. This is just the beginning.

"The recent big shifts in tax policy concerning investment properties, as well as the RBA's earlier three rate hikes, have rapidly sapped investor demand from the market.

"As we see it, first home buyers and other owner-occupiers are unlikely to want to try to 'catch a falling knife'. With no rate cuts expected anytime soon (there is still some risk of another hike), we expect no near-term circuit breaker, which means the housing price correction is likely to continue for some time yet.

"We see national prices falling in H2 2026 and by 2-6% over 2027 — implying a correction of up to 8% over that period.

"The pace of decline in the June figures suggest the risks to this view look tilted to the downside too. Hold onto your hats."

Bloxham and his economists believe "housing price declines will be broad-based across the nation" whereas so far it's only been Sydney and Melbourne that have seen a slide.

"Our take is that a significant driver of recent momentum in the mid-tier cities — including Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide — has been investor demand. There have been good fundamentals too — with stronger population growth and limited housing supply in these mid-tier cities. But, this is, of course, how typical bubbles form. A well-grounded fundamentally-supported story, attracts speculative interest and the market becomes exuberant with excessive momentum."

In Perth housing prices are up 24% over the past year, and 126% over the past six years.

Expect a lot more chat about this in the coming months.

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:29am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:29am

AUD could fall to US 67 cents, potentially lower next year

By Daniel Ziffer

The Australian dollar briefly snapped a four-week losing streak against the greenback, sitting above 69 US cents, after a weaker than expected US jobs report dented US rate rise expectations.

But NAB's currency analysts say that is a brief reprieve.

The bank has downgraded its currency forecast, with predictions the Australian dollar could go as low as 65 US cents, by the end of 2027 if the RBA starts cutting interest rates next year.

NAB's head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill, says that's because of several factors, which include the US dollar remaining very strong for some time, NAB's view that Australia will see no more rate hikes this year, and a risk the US may see an interest rate rise in the coming months.

"That does play to the Aussie dollar suffering from that shift in interest rate differentials," he says.

NAB's base case is that the Australian dollar will hit just above 70 US cents during the second half of this year.

However, Mr Attrill says that does depend on the greenback not continuing to strengthen.

But, he says, if the RBA cuts interest rates three times next year, as NAB is forecasting, the Australian dollar is expected to go down to around 67 US cents, with a risk it could fall to as low as 65 US cents, by the end of 2027.

He spoke to Alicia Barry on The Business last night. Check it out.

Key Event

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:11am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 8:11am

Donald Trump teaches crypto devotees a valuable lesson

By Stephanie Chalmers

US President Donald Trump should have been a godsend to the mysterious world of cryptocurrency.

Instead, it has been a godsend to him, writes our chief business correspondent Ian Verrender this morning.

A late convert to the cause, Trump marshalled the crypto world behind him during the 2024 election — vowing to make America the world's crypto capital.

To achieve that he would loosen regulations, install a crypto-friendly chief to the US Securities and Exchange Commission and ensure widespread acceptance of Bitcoin.

He's delivered on all counts and amassed a vast fortune along the way.

According to filings released last week, Trump and his family reaped a $US1.4 billion ($2.02 billion) bonanza from crypto ventures alone since his return to the White House.

But across the crypto landscape, investors are sitting on massive losses.

Having been delivered everything they've always craved, widespread acceptance and respectability, Bitcoin devotees have found themselves holding just another asset that has no useful purpose and a questionable future.

Read Ian's full analysis here:

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:45am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:45am

What happened overnight?

By Daniel Ziffer

Lots.

Here's the key points, from Reuters. All figures are in US dollars.

US stocks higher as chipmaker optimism returns

Oil prices steady as costs return to pre-war levels

Chipmaker rise comes ahead of critical AI earnings season

Wall Street surged and oil prices settled around pre-Iran war levels, as investors eyed new developments in the AI and chipmaker sector ahead of corporate earnings.

All three major US indexes ended the day higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 0.29%, while the S&P 500 jumped 0.72% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.12%.

Worldwide? MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.41%.

The global AI boom continued to dominate markets. South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix on Monday launched a US share sale to 43 trillion won ($28.07 billion) and indications of interest for up to $7 billion from major investors. And Broadcom announced it had expanded its partnership with Apple to develop and supply custom chips through 2031.

Elsewhere, Microsoft joined the trend of tech layoffs, revealing it would eliminate about 4,800 jobs, roughly 2.1% of its global workforce. Investors will be watching closely for how artificial intelligence-related companies are faring amid some fears about a bubble in the upcoming earnings season.

Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are the big U.S. names reporting this week. Samsung Electronics is set to make a splash on Tuesday as analysts expect an 18-fold increase in profit.

Oil prices steady

Oil prices were flat on Monday, as prices lingered around pre-Iran war levels. US crude was steady at $68.69 a barrel and Brent fell just 0.03% to $72.10 per barrel.

While there were no new developments in the fractious U.S.-Iran peace talks, ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with 160 vessels reported transiting from Monday to Saturday of last week. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling prices.

Calming in oil prices looks to be extending some relief to the private sector, as the decline helped to slow the pace of increase in services inflation, according to new data from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM reported that U.S. services sector activity dipped in June, but employment rebounded after contracting for three straight months.

US President Donald Trump will attend a NATO meeting in Turkey this week, and Fed watchers will get another glimpse into how new Chairman Kevin Warsh steers the central bank when it releases Federal Open Market Committee minutes on Wednesday, the first of his tenure.

Analysts expect Warsh to limit clues as to future interest rate moves, but Fed Governor Christopher Waller defended forward guidance in remarks on Monday, saying it can be a "valuable tool" under the right circumstances.

Key Event

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:32am

Tue 7 Jul 2026 at 7:32am

Let's get going!

By Daniel Ziffer

Hello, I'm Daniel Ziffer from the ABC business team and I'll be taking you through the morning on our business, finance and economics blog.

Overnight, Wall Street indices were all higher.

The blue-chip Dow Jones of 30 mega-companies like Boeing and Visa was +0.3% to close at a record, 53,055.9 points.

The broader S&P 500 that covers 500 of the largest listed companies in the US +0.7% to 7,537 points.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was +1.1% to 26,121 points.

These numbers are live, and trading is continuing, we’ll update you when there’s a firm closing price.

Our market is set to flatline, with the ASX 200 futures index tipping a lift (if you call it that) of +0.03% or 3 points to 8,813 points.

There’s lots to get to, all of it news, analysis and information and none of it financial advice.

Let’s get started!