Could the departure of a WA Labor stalwart give One Nation a boost?

History has a funny way of repeating itself in politics, and WA Labor will certainly be hoping that is the case in a looming by-election, set against the background of seemingly surging support for One Nation.

The announcement that long-serving WA Labor stalwart Paul Papalia will resign this week to care for an ill relative is understood by all, but it throws a spanner in the party's third-term plans.

Moments after heaping praise on Papalia's 19-year parliamentary career, Premier Roger Cook was quick to declare the subsequent by-election in the traditional Labor stronghold of Secret Harbour was "going to be really tough".

"We're going to have to fight for our lives on this one,"

he said.

But Labor has been here before, in the same area. Papalia entered parliament in 2007 after a by-election triggered by the resignation of Norm Marlborough when secret dealings with disgraced former premier Brian Burke were revealed.

It could have left Labor on the nose in the seat. Instead, Papalia held the seat on primary votes alone.

The former Navy clearance diver recalled being approached to run by former premier Mark McGowan, who gave him just 24 hours to make up his mind.

"There was an expectation, because right around the country [in] every other jurisdiction, there had never been a second-term government by-election where the government held the seat, so they expected to lose that, and we won," the outgoing minister said yesterday.

The seat has remained safe Labor territory ever since. But politics has changed since then.

"People assume that if you disagree with them, then you're somehow a bad person, and that's regardless of which side it is of the spectrum … you're talking about," Papalia said.

He and Cook accuse One Nation of taking advantage of that more divided political landscape.

"Labor are the safe pair of hands putting Western Australians first," Cook said, already in campaign mode.

'People don't know where to turn'

In Secret Harbour, local resident Jackie Christiansen said Papalia had a lot of support in the local community.

"At the end of the day, he's got to have a home life too, and also he's done so much for people in the community and people in this area," she said.

She hoped the next local member would focus on homelessness and law enforcement in Secret Harbour.

"We need something here, somewhere people can go and get help when they need it," Ms Christiansen said.

Another Secret Harbour local, Richard Martin, said he hoped One Nation could win the seat and provide "a change of direction".

He said he would support a reduction in government spending and lowering taxes. He also held negative views about Muslims and Indigenous people.

"People just don't know where to turn, they're beside themselve. They work hard, work hard, work hard, at the end of it they think they're going to retire. Retire on what?" Mr Martin said.

Political analyst Martin Drum said how the candidates approached local issues would be key.

"Anything is possible in the by-election, and the electorate is very volatile at the moment, so you wouldn't rule anything out," he said.

One Nation confident

One Nation's WA leader, Rod Caddies, said his party would "definitely" be running a candidate, saying the safe Labor seat had been "neglected".

Aside from cost-of-living factors and access to housing, he touted a long-delayed local train station as a key issue, as well as apparent odours reported by residents as the suburb transformed from largely rural to dense suburbia.

Cook said he acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns" about the cost of living and jobs, but insisted choosing One Nation was not the answer.

"When you're voting for One Nation, you're bringing in the chaos of the eastern states to Western Australia," he told reporters.

"But One Nation simply tries to use the legitimate concerns and create a vision — the vision to blame minorities.

"It's not a solution for WA."

But Caddies said he was confident about his party's chances and said Labor was often talking about One Nation's stance on federal issues rather than his focus on WA.

"I think if we run a great campaign, we make sure we talk to the people and let them know that we're going to deliver for them, we will sink Labor in Secret Harbour."

He also would not rule out seeking a preference deal with the Liberals.

"I will work with any party that is conservative, that aligns with our values and aligns without policies moving forward," he said.

For their part, the WA Liberals did not rule out running a candidate and left the door open for some kind of arrangement.

"If you're asking are we going to preference One Nation, well, if they run and if we run, and I'm pretty confident that we will … we'll be preferencing them above Labor, that's for sure," WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas said.

Tough guy

All of this talk about what comes next risks overshadowing everything Papalia was able to achieve across his portfolios.

He credits growth in the state's defence industries as the legacy he is most proud of — one which will continue paying off for years to come and which no doubt will continue to stoke debate among some.

He championed WA as a tourism destination before and during the COVID pandemic, which brought the industry to its knees.

As police minister, he introduced tougher knife laws, created Protected Entertainment Precincts and led a controversial rewrite of WA's gun laws that turned them into the toughest in the nation, against fierce opposition and at least one death threat.

And in corrective services, he has turned a youth justice system in deep crisis into one where young people get significantly more time out of their cells and are able access a wider range of services to get their lives back on track, although there is much more to be done.

He also leaves with a growing overcrowding problem in the state's adult prisons, which he insists there are plans to address.

Despite all of that, there was a sense as he announced his exit that there was still more left in the tank.

"What I'm doing wasn't planned. This is not part of my future plans, it's by necessity," he said.

"The condition that my family member has been diagnosed with is a significant and debilitating one [and] over time, it progresses."

It was on this topic the usually hard-nosed minister appeared emotional.

But even as he bowed out, the 63-year-old made sure to end on an upbeat note.

"Years ago, when we were working on the creation of the banned drinkers register in the Kimberley, [a former shire president] paid me what I still consider the greatest compliment I've received in public office," he said.

"He said … 'I like you, you get shit done'."

"If that's how people remember me, I'll be happy with that."

For all he has accomplished, how Papalia is remembered will inevitably be shaped by the looming by-election, and whether he can get his final job done — holding off an assault from One Nation.