Seismic experts urge PM, President to act ahead of “inevitable catastrophe”

Seven of Portugal’s leading earthquake engineering and Earth sciences experts have issued an urgent appeal to President António José Seguro and Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, warning that a major earthquake in Portugal could become an inevitable national catastrophe unless immediate action is taken to strengthen vulnerable buildings and critical infrastructure.

In a joint letter requesting urgent meetings with both leaders, the academics draw a stark parallel with the recent devastating earthquakes in Venezuela, arguing that both countries shared the same problem: years of scientific warnings that failed to translate into political action.

“Venezuela did not fail because it lacked knowledge. It failed because knowledge was not transformed into action. Unfortunately, that is exactly what is happening in Portugal,” the signatories write.

The intervention comes as Portugal’s urban search and rescue team prepares to return from Venezuela after completing its mission in the earthquake-stricken state of La Guaira, where rescuers described destruction on an unprecedented scale.

Lisbon earthquake could kill up to 27,000

The scientists stress that another major earthquake in Portugal is not a question of if, but when.

Citing estimates by the Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), they warn that a powerful earthquake affecting the Lisbon metropolitan area alone could damage around 334,000 homes housing some 600,000 people.

The scenario examined by LNEC forecasts the collapse of approximately 25,000 buildings and between 17,000 and 27,000 deaths.

“The southern half of Portugal is a region of high seismic risk. History reminds us of this. Science confirms it,” the letter states. “We will again experience earthquakes comparable to those of 1531 or 1755 that devastated Lisbon and southern Portugal. Unfortunately, we cannot predict when.”

Schools, hospitals and infrastructure at risk

The experts warn that Portugal’s vulnerability extends far beyond residential buildings.

They identify nurseries, schools, hospitals, care homes, fire stations and civil protection facilities as priorities for seismic reinforcement because they would be essential during the first hours following a major disaster.

They also highlight ageing housing stock built before modern earthquake-resistant standards, industrial facilities, and critical infrastructure—including water, electricity and gas networks—whose failure could leave parts of Portugal virtually uninhabitable for extended periods.

The letter criticises urban regeneration projects that, in the experts’ view, often prioritise cosmetic improvements while failing to assess or strengthen the structural resilience of older buildings.

The scientists also warn of the potential loss of irreplaceable cultural heritage, citing masterpieces such as the Panels of Saint Vincent and The Temptation of Saint Anthony, alongside thousands of artefacts housed in museums, churches, libraries and archives.

“When the ground shakes again, it will be too late”

The signatories insist they are not seeking to create alarm but to promote prevention.

“We do not advocate alarmism; we advocate preparedness,” they write. “We are not seeking to assign blame for the past. Rather, we wish to avoid future responsibility while there is still time.”

The seven conclude with a direct appeal for political leadership.

“If the democratically-elected political authorities are the last to act, catastrophe is inevitable.”

“Every day that passes without us acting as a democratic, responsible and civilised state increases the risk.”

“When the ground shakes again, it will already be too late for us to be heard.”

The letter is signed by seven prominent specialists in seismic engineering, geology and disaster risk, including earthquake engineering professors Carlos Sousa Oliveira and Mário Lopes of the Instituto Superior Técnico, geophysicist Luís Matias and geologist João C. Duarte of the University of Lisbon, Mónica Amaral Ferreira, president of the European Centre for Urban Risks, Rui Carrilho Gomes, former president of the Portuguese Society for Earthquake Engineering, and Fernando Pinho of NOVA School of Science and Technology.

Source material: CNN Portugal