Morocco's olive oil sales to Spain increase hundredfold from low base

In just 12 months, Morocco has become a much more visible supplier of olive oil to the Spanish market, according to the latest DataComex figures (source in Spanish), which reports to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise. Between January and April 2025, Spain bought 103 tonnes of oil from its neighbouring country; in the same period of 2026, the figure reached 10,384.7 tonnes. The 9,979% increase is accurate and verifiable, but it needs some context to understand what it really means.

Why such a high percentage is not a mistake

The leap is explained largely by the starting point: when the initial figure is so small, any moderate increase in absolute terms translates into an eye-watering percentage. Going from 103 to just over 10,000 tonnes makes the figure 100 times larger, and expressed as a percentage that multiplication is close to five digits. The same pattern is seen in the economic value of these purchases: from €340,000 to €32.76 million, up 9,535%.

Put in perspective, Moroccan oil still accounts for only a small fraction of the Spanish market. Using data up to February 2026, Morocco supplied 7.48% of Spain’s olive oil imports, compared with 2.01% a year earlier: a notable increase, but still far from a dominant position. Spain also produces around 1.295 million tonnes of oil in the 2025-2026 season, a figure far higher than the just over 10,000 tonnes imported from Morocco in the first four months. Morocco’s growth is real and rapid, but on its own it does not change the overall weight of domestic production.

A shift in Spanish exports as well

The other side of the trade balance has also moved. Spain sold 2,721 tonnes of oil to Morocco between January and April 2025, a figure that fell to 673.72 tonnes in the same period of 2026, a 75.2% drop. In value terms, Spanish exports went from €11.11 million to €2.44 million, almost 78% less. The upshot is a reversal in the trade relationship: whereas in 2025 Spain sold more oil to Morocco than it bought, in 2026 the opposite is now true.

What is driving Morocco’s advance

Behind these numbers lies an exceptionally strong Moroccan harvest: the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation estimated output at close to 200,000 tonnes for 2025-2026, more than double the previous year, thanks to groves recovering after several years of drought. On top of that comes a lower price, supported by the preferential trade conditions the European Union grants Morocco. Across the EU, purchases of Moroccan oil rose 712.6% between October 2025 and March 2026, although Tunisia remains, by far, the main non-EU supplier, with 81% of those imports.

At the same time, Spanish production is going through a somewhat weaker season: the Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 9% drop on the previous year, which helps explain why the market has turned more to foreign oil. Taken together, the figures point to a shift in trade trends between Spain and Morocco that warrants close monitoring, but they do not yet support talk of Moroccan oil replacing Spanish oil.

The rest of the picture: who else sells oil to Spain

Morocco is not the only player. In the first two months of 2026, Spain imported a total of 39,624.61 tonnes of olive oil, and the Maghreb country ranked fourth among suppliers, behind Tunisia (15,861.10 tonnes), Portugal (13,174.47) and Italy (4,257.19). Tunisia remains by far Spain’s main foreign supplier, with volumes four times higher than Morocco’s over the same period.

The same comparison holds at European level: between October 2025 and March 2026, EU imports of Moroccan oil grew by 712.6%, rising from 1,269 to 10,312 tonnes. Even so, Tunisia accounts for 81% of all the olive oil the EU buys from third countries, compared with a much smaller Moroccan share. The European Commission report also notes sharp declines in other traditional suppliers, such as Turkey (-95.1%), Syria (-83.1%) and Argentina (-53.4%), which places Morocco’s advance within a reshuffle of suppliers that is being driven on several fronts, not just by Morocco.