Attacks on Kyiv ahead of NATO summit: What is Putin's goal?

Ukraine is slowly recovering after yet another heavy Russian bombardment. Overnight on Monday, Russia launched a massive attack on the Ukrainian capital.

At least 22 people were killed and dozens injured in Kyiv after residential buildings and infrastructure were struck. In the Kyiv region, the main target, 15 people died. Debris is being cleared at more than 20 sites.

Ukraine lacks air defenses

On the evening of July 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned citizens that intelligence reports indicated Russia was preparing a large attack. "This reflects Putin's mindset — immediately after the US Independence Day and ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara. Russia wants to cause even more harm and kill people," Zelenskyy said in a video message on the messaging platform Telegram.

The president urged Ukrainians to heed air raid warnings. He also called on Ukraine's partners to speed up deliveries of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems.

His warning proved accurate. According to Ukraine authorities, Russia launched 68 missiles of various types overnight, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 3M22 Zircon and Oniks cruise missiles as well as 351 drones. Although Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a high percentage of cruise missiles on July 6, they were unable to shoot down a single ballistic missile.

Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force, said the main reason was a shortage of Patriot missiles.

Several people killed after Russia batters Kyiv overnight

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"Ballistic attacks are once again hitting civilians. Because the enemy cannot achieve its goals on the battlefield, it is increasingly directing ballistic missiles at residential buildings and killing civilians," Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the latest bombardment as "one of the most brutal attacks ever, involving dozens of ballistic missiles." He called on NATO heads of government to be aware of what the people of Kyiv had to endure. "Protect Ukrainian children from Russian ballistic terror. There is no more urgent task," Sybiha wrote on the social network X.

A message to NATO

With the latest strike on Ukraine coming ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Vladimir Putin wants to signal to the alliance that none of its decisions to support Ukraine can deter it, says Oleksandr Kraiev, an analyst at the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Prism foreign policy think tank. "He wants to intimidate Europeans and NATO allies so that at some point they view their support for Ukraine as pointless, with the message: 'No matter what you do, Putin will attack anyway'," Kraiev told DW

Ivan Us of Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies also pointed to a connection between the bombardment and the NATO summit. He said Putin wants to show that Russia is strong, that Russia must be feared, and that Moscow will always be able to attack the civilian infrastructure of NATO states if they stand up to Russia and help Ukraine.

Russia strikes Kyiv ahead of NATO summit

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Us also noted that supporters of the war in Russia are increasingly doubtful that their country can win the war. So the attacks also seek to steer domestic debate in Russia back where Putin wants it, he told DW.

"Russia must create and maintain an image that makes it appear powerful, strong and victorious in this war. The attack on Kyiv is meant to demonstrate that Russia still has a chance."

Will Putin's strategy succeed?

Following the latest attack on Kyiv, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Ukraine "urgently" needs additional air defense systems and that the issue will be discussed at the NATO summit. "And we are working hard to seal the deal on the 21st sanctions package in the next days. We will keep increasing the pressure until Russia ends the bloodshed," she posted on X.

The experts interviewed by DW noted that Washington's stance on Putin and the war in Ukraine is gradually changing. According to Kraiev, US President Donald Trump is now convinced that Russia is not a reliable partner but is sabotaging the peace process instead of supporting it. He says Trump views Ukraine, by contrast, as making gains: Stopping the enemy at the front, striking Russia's energy sector and economy, and it has proven itself a stable negotiating partner.

If it were up to Trump, the NATO summit in Ankara will reinforce that shift in perspective, Kraiev said. Allies could voice their support for Trump's new position and express it in a joint document or statement, he suggested.

"Shooting at Ukrainians in order to break them — this strategy has not worked for Putin so far, but has instead produced the opposite effect," Kraiev said. "This was already clear in 2022, when it also had the opposite outcome. The partners intensified their efforts and enabled Ukraine to get significantly more air defense systems, especially Patriot systems."

Us said he expects the summit to continue encouraging NATO countries with Patriot missiles to provide them to Ukraine in exchange for NATO guarantees. The issue of granting Ukraine a license to produce these missiles could also be discussed. In addition, the summit could approve $140 billion (€122 billion) in military aid for Ukraine through NATO over two years, the expert added.

This article was originally published in Ukrainian