Friend or enemy? China missile test sees Pacific nations finally speak out

There's an old saying in the Pacific, one you'll hear leaders whip out all the time.

Friends to all, enemies to none.

It's a long-standing position in the region; one most Pacific nations truly believe in and hold dear. But it's also a convenient out clause.

When a curly question on geopolitics comes their way, particularly on China, bang, there it goes — the get-out-of-jail-free card for anything slightly controversial.

For Australia, it's always been a bit of a bugbear.

Despite pumping billions into the region in what it describes as the "permanent contest" with China, Pacific leaders have often deferred back to that old statement in an attempt to avoid poking the dragon.

But this week, perhaps for the first time in a long time, some sections of the Pacific community might be considering a slight adjustment.

Friends to all, enemies: one, sometimes.

It's not quite as catchy, sure. But when one of your "friends" presses a big red button to launch a nuclear-capable missile into the waters of your backyard, it's a little harder to keep them as an admin in the Pacific family WhatsApp chat.

This new dichotomy was highlighted yesterday in more formal, and direct, terms by newly-elected Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale.

"China is a good friend of the Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does," he said in the joint press conference with Australia's PM Anthony Albanese, who was no doubt smiling inside.

"This is not good in our region.

"We don't want to see any more countries — China, America, anybody — testing [intercontinental ballistic missiles] in the Pacific Islands region, that's the bottom line.

"Be our friend, but don't threaten us."

Wale was joined in condemnation yesterday by leaders from Fiji and Papua New Guinea, with its leader James Marape saying the Pacific region has "lived through war, nuclear testing and military activities imposed upon us by larger powers. We do not want history repeated".

But for a leader of Solomon Islands, in particular, to say something in such a strong tone condemning China is quite extraordinary.

Once considered China's closest ally in the region, Wale's comments represent a spectacular 180-degree flip for Solomon Islands over the past two months.

And to explain why this is so extraordinary, we need to go back to the strange time in all our lives: July 2022.

China's 'reputational damage'

Solomon Islands, like most of the world, was tentatively opening up again after COVID restrictions.

I was there as part of an ABC crew on the first international flight into the country after more than two years of closed borders.

On the ground, the mood was tense.

In the months prior, its leader at the time, the enigmatic and bombastic Mannaseh Sogavare, had openly questioned the country's relationship with Australia, blaming its role in riots that razed parts of the capital's Chinatown district.

It came hot on the heels of his decision to sign a security pact with China, sparking fears Beijing was planning a military base in the country.

In Sogavare's Independence Day speech, he didn't hold back, signalling out China's "genuine intention" to be a "worthy partner" in the country's development.

He didn't even mention Australia and stormed off without speaking to the ABC, or any local media.

They say a week is a long time in politics.

Well, in the Pacific, four years is a couple of lifetimes.

Tuesday was once again Solomon Islands Independence Day. And the sentiment in Honiara was very, very different.

After being elected in May through a long-winded no-confidence vote that booted out the more China-friendly leader (and Sogavare's successor) Jeremiah Manele, Wale has promptly sought to recalibrate the country's relationship with Australia.

Instead of having a go at Australia, the big brother of the Pacific family, on his country's most important day, Wale was instead, literally, standing arm-in-arm.

"Nobody thought Wale would have this vigour about him of resetting the relationship with Australia," Lowy Institute Pacific Islands program director Oliver Nobetau said.

"And this [the Chinese missile test] is a prime example for Anthony Albanese to point to now to say this is exactly what we are trying to avoid by building these security partnerships and ensuring that there's stability in the region."

Nobetau said the action would have reputational damage for China.

"At last year's Pacific Islands Forum, China spoke about the Oceans of Peace concept," he said.

"Unless they answer for why this missile launch was done, and has a really good justification for it, [it's] going to be an uphill battle for them."

Is Australia 'winning' in the Pacific?

It's difficult to assess whether this latest action by China will have any longstanding effects on its relationships in the region.

China has embedded itself in most Pacific countries, offering much-needed development assistance without the questions and pesky interference of auditing and accountability required by Australian aid and support.

And it's been effective. A Lowy Institute poll out last month found 39 per cent of Australians believed China was the most influential country in the Pacific.

Only 33 per cent believed it was Australia.

That must hurt the Albanese government, as Australia's contribution and aid commitment literally dwarfs China's, about 38 per cent to 9 per cent, and it has been this way for the past 15 years.

On the ground in the Pacific, it's a little harder to gauge who's "winning".

In fact, the vast majority of Pacific Islanders detest the idea of their nations being stuck in the middle of some sort of geopolitical contest.

But, if you want to gauge where Australia might be making traction with its plans, it's interesting to see which countries have so far commented publicly on China's missile test.

Papua New Guinea, which last year signed the PukPuk treaty with China, and Fiji, which this week inked the Vuvale Union as well as the Ocean of Peace Alliance.

Vanuatu, which finally signed the Nakamal Agreement with Australia after long and arduous negotiations, has been silent.

When the ABC attempted to get comment from Tuvalu's government, the country where the missile landed closest, a government spokesman said they were still assessing whether the missile report was real or not.

They added most people had been a little distracted by Monday night's national beauty pageant.

Sometimes there are more important things to worry about.