Oscar Race Forecast: Doc Talk Podcast Spotlights Early Contenders For Best Documentary Feature

It’s shaping up as another open-ended race for Best Documentary Feature at the 99th annual Academy Awards. As we move deeper into 2026, no single film has emerged as a clear frontrunner, but there are plenty of contenders even before potential candidates premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Telluride and TIFF.

On the new edition of Deadline’s Doc Talk podcast, we dig into the films gaining traction at this (admittedly early) stage of the Oscar competition. As we reported earlier Tuesday, contender A Fox Under a Pink Moon just gained a prominent executive producer in David Borenstein, director of Mr. Nobody Against Putin, the documentary that won the Oscar in March for Best Documentary Feature.

Fox has won awards at festivals around the world, but there are other films that can claim that distinction, including To Hold a Mountain, Nuisance Bear, American Doctor and Jane Elliott Against the World among others. Documentary branch voters, who will determine the shortlist and the eventual five nominees, may also prove open to Closure, a gripping film from Poland.

Doc Talk co-hosts John Ridley and Matt Carey get into the Sundance factor, and how films that premiered at that festival gain an upper hand, and why it has become very difficult for an American-centric film to win the Oscar for Documentary Feature, a big shift from previous decades (U.S.-focused films can and do get recognition in the shortlist and nomination phases, but winning has become a tall order).

We highlight why one possible contender may be held back by a notable visual element – copious nudity. A film out of the UK that boasts a famous executive producer and touches on immigration enforcement could make its mark. National Geographic and Netflix will make a strong case for their best bets, and a film from Independent Lens that damns AI for its connection to eugenics could become a factor.

Ridley, who won an Oscar for writing 12 Years a Slave, doesn’t hold back on some of his favorites of the year – one about a man who hacked into the telephone system using his voice, and another about an iconic actor who recently turned 90.

That’s on the new episode of Doc Talk hosted by Ridley (Shirley, Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992), and Carey, Deadline’s senior documentary editor. The pod is a production of Deadline and Ridley’s Nō Studios.

Listen to the episode above or on major podcast platforms including Spotify, iHeart and Apple.