Winning the war against banditry requires political will, 21st century strategy

Last week, retired Colonel Sani Bello said what many Nigerians have quietly believed for years; that the country possesses enough intelligence, military assets and technological capabilities to significantly weaken the bandit networks terrorising large parts of northern Nigeria. What appears to be missing is not more weapons but sustained political will. His remarks deserve serious national reflection.

Over the past decade, banditry has evolved from cattle rustling into a sophisticated criminal enterprise involving mass kidnappings, village raids, extortion, illegal mining, and collaboration with terrorist organisations. Thousands of Nigerians have lost their lives, entire communities have been displaced, schools have been shut, agricultural production has declined, and investors have become increasingly reluctant to invest in affected regions.

Colonel Bello argued that security agencies already know the locations of many notorious bandit leaders. He questioned why individuals who freely use mobile phones, communicate through social media, and even grant interviews remain beyond the reach of the state. Whether one agrees entirely with his assessment or not, his central message is difficult to dismiss: governments that possess intelligence must translate that intelligence into decisive action.

Nigeria has unfortunately witnessed numerous high-profile atrocities committed by bandits. Retired Major General Rabe Abubakar, who served as the Director of Defence Information and spokesperson for the Nigerian Armed Forces was kidnapped and tragically died in bandits’ captivity in June. The kidnapping of over 300 schoolchildren in Kuriga, Kaduna State, on March 7, 2024, the abduction of nearly 300 students from Government Girls Secondary School, Jangebe, Zamfara State in February 2021, and repeated attacks on communities in Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Niger, and Kebbi States have become painful reminders that the threat has become systemic rather than isolated. Equally disturbing was the killing of traditional rulers, community leaders, farmers and security personnel in repeated ambushes by armed groups. The attacks on villages in Bokkos and Barkin Ladi in Plateau State, the massacres in Kaduna’s Birnin Gwari axis, and repeated raids in Zamfara have demonstrated that these criminal organisations possess considerable mobility and operational coordination.

The question, therefore, is straightforward: how have other countries confronted similar asymmetric threats? One country that offers important lessons is Israel. For years, Israel has invested heavily in intelligence-driven operations rather than relying solely on conventional troop deployments. Persistent surveillance drones monitor hostile territory around the clock. Artificial intelligence analyses enormous volumes of surveillance footage, intercepted communications, satellite imagery and movement patterns to identify suspicious behaviour before attacks occur.

Rather than waiting for terrorists to strike, intelligence fusion centres combine information from multiple agencies into a single operational picture. Once a high-value target is identified, precision operations are launched using drones, aircraft or special forces, minimising collateral damage while increasing operational effectiveness. Nigeria needs not copy every aspect of the Israeli security model, since the political and legal contexts differ. However, the technological principles are highly relevant.

Today’s artificial intelligence has transformed counter-terrorism worldwide. Modern AI-powered surveillance systems can automatically detect unusual human movement across forests, grazing routes and known bandit corridors. Computer vision systems installed on drones can distinguish between ordinary farming activities and armed groups carrying weapons. Machine learning algorithms can predict likely routes used by bandits based on historical attack patterns. AI-assisted geospatial intelligence can combine satellite imagery, drone feeds, mobile network metadata and terrain analysis to locate temporary camps hidden inside forests. Voice recognition systems can analyse intercepted communications to identify known criminal leaders. Facial recognition technology can compare drone imagery with criminal databases.

Instead of relying on static databases, predictive analytics can identify villages at highest risk before attacks occur, allowing security agencies to deploy preventive rather than reactive operations. Autonomous long-endurance drones can remain airborne for many hours, providing continuous surveillance over forests such as the Kamuku, Kuyanbana, Falgore and other known criminal hideouts without exposing soldiers to unnecessary danger. Swarm drone technology, where multiple inexpensive drones operate cooperatively, can monitor vast areas that would otherwise require thousands of troops. Artificial intelligence can also optimise logistics by recommending the fastest deployment routes, identifying supply requirements and improving coordination among military formations.

Recently, I was at a celebration in Nigerian Defence Academy where a Nigerian researcher demonstrated several of the underlying technologies. They could be deployed. In addition, the Nigerian military has acquired unmanned aerial vehicles, satellite capabilities and intelligence platforms over the years. What is required is deeper integration of these systems, better data sharing among security agencies, stronger intelligence analysis and faster operational decision-making.

Colonel Bello also proposed integrating police personnel into military operations and recalling retired military personnel during this emergency. History supports the idea that nations facing extraordinary security crises often expand their trained manpower through reserve forces and retired professionals. However, such mobilisation must be carefully organised, properly trained, legally regulated and adequately supervised to maintain professionalism and accountability.

Technology alone, however, will not defeat banditry. Military operations must be accompanied by effective governance. Forest governance must improve. Illegal mining that finances criminal groups must be dismantled. Borders through which weapons enter Nigeria require stronger surveillance. Local intelligence networks should be strengthened through community trust rather than fear. Witness protection programmes should encourage information sharing. Judicial processes must ensure that arrested criminals are prosecuted swiftly and transparently.

Political commitment remains the indispensable ingredient. Nobody expects President Bola Tinubu to don military uniform and head into bandit hideouts. What we expect is leadership that consistently prioritises national security, provides adequate resources, coordinates institutions and insists on measurable results.

Nigeria has overcome seemingly impossible challenges before. During the civil war, the country rapidly expanded its military capability under emergency conditions. Today, confronting banditry demands similar urgency—but with twenty-first-century tools. Artificial intelligence, drones, satellite surveillance, predictive analytics and integrated intelligence systems now provide capabilities unimaginable half a century ago.

Colonel Sani Bello’s intervention should, therefore, not be dismissed as another commentary in the news cycle. It should serve as a call for a comprehensive review of Nigeria’s counter-bandit strategy. The objective should no longer be merely responding to attacks after they occur. It should be to detect, disrupt and dismantle criminal networks before they strike.

The Nigerian state possesses far greater resources than the bandits. If those resources are matched by sustained political will, strategic coordination and intelligent application of modern technology, the country can significantly reduce banditry and restore confidence to millions of citizens who simply want to live, farm, travel and educate their children in peace.

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