US Share of Brazil’s Trade Hits a Record Low After Tariffs

Trade

Key Facts

—The record. The United States accounted for just 9.4 percent of Brazil’s exports in the first half of 2026, the lowest share since the data series began in 1997.

—The drop. That is down from 12.1 percent a year earlier, before the first round of tariffs took effect.

—The China gap. Over the same window China widened its lead, taking 31.5 percent of Brazilian exports, up from 28.9 percent.

—The value. Sales to the United States fell 13 percent to $17.4 billion, even as total Brazilian exports rose 11.5 percent.

—The source. The figures come from Amcham Brasil, the American Chamber of Commerce, drawing on official trade data.

A year after Washington slapped steep tariffs on Brazilian goods, the shift in Brazil trade is now visible in the headline numbers: the United States share of the country’s exports has fallen to its lowest level on record. China, meanwhile, has widened an already commanding lead as the main buyer of what Brazil sells.

In the first half of 2026 the United States took just over nine percent of Brazilian exports, down from twelve percent a year earlier. It is the smallest American share since the current data series started in 1997.

The trigger is well known. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping tariff package on Brazilian goods on July 9 last year, and its effects have now worked through a full half-year of trade.

What the Brazil trade numbers show

Total commerce between the two countries came to about thirty-six billion dollars in the first six months, a fall of nearly thirteen percent on the year, according to the chamber’s monitor. Both sides lost ground, with Brazilian exports down thirteen percent and imports from the United States down a similar amount.

The damage was concentrated in surcharged goods. According to the chamber, tariffed products drove most of the export decline, with heavy falls in items such as trucks, wood, semi-finished steel and copper.

The contrast with the rest of the world is stark. Overall Brazilian exports grew almost twelve percent in the period, lifted by China, up nearly twenty-two percent, and the European Union, up almost thirteen percent.

A structural pivot, not a blip

The American slide predates the tariffs but has accelerated sharply under them. Trade-promotion data show the United States share falling from around nineteen percent two decades ago to roughly eleven percent last year, and lower still now.

The map of Brazil’s trade has been redrawn along the way. Twenty years ago seventeen Brazilian states counted the United States as their main partner; today only six do, while China now leads in fourteen.

There was one bright spot in the detail. In June, Brazilian exports to the United States rose almost four percent year on year, breaking a run of ten straight monthly declines, though fresh trade measures could quickly undo that.

That rebound leaned on goods that escaped the surcharges. Sales of untaxed products jumped sharply, pulled up by aircraft and petroleum fuel oils, while taxed goods kept falling through the month.

Brazilian industry has borne the brunt of the shift. Manufactured exports to the United States shrank by more than a billion dollars over the half-year, the clearest sign that the tariffs are hitting the higher-value end of the trade rather than raw commodities.

The government and exporters have scrambled to find new buyers. The trade-promotion agency says it ran dozens of commercial missions over the past year, and most of the companies it backed managed to open at least one new export market.

Coffee has become the emblem of the strain. Sales of unroasted beans to the United States fell by more than a third over the half-year, and the sector is still pressing Washington to extend an exemption it won for green coffee to soluble coffee as well.

Why does this Brazil trade shift matter for investors?

It signals a deepening reliance on China and commodities and a weakening industrial link to the United States, which changes the country’s risk profile. A trade base leaning on a single dominant buyer is more exposed to that buyer’s policy swings, something foreign investors weigh when pricing Brazilian assets.

Is the United States still an important market?

Yes, despite the fall it remains Brazil’s second-largest trading partner in goods and the top destination for its industrial exports. That is why the coming tariff decisions carry weight well beyond the headline percentages.

What happens next?

Attention now turns to a mid-July deadline in the American trade investigation, where further duties could be applied. Business groups on both sides are pressing for a negotiated deal to avoid another escalation.