Submarine missile test puts China's Pacific ambitions on display

A Chinese submarine test-fired a "strategic" missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, Beijing said, prompting immediate condemnation from nations in the region.

Issued on: 08/07/2026 - 14:56Modified: 08/07/2026 - 14:56

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“It’s the first known submarine-based missile test since 1982,” according to Professor Michael Dillon, a China specialist affiliated with the Lau China Institute at London’s King’s College, and "the first ever from a nuclear-powered submarine."

According to Dillon, Beijing wants to demonstrate that "the Chinese Navy is here and it is in a position to fire missiles."

China’s state-controlled People’s Daily called the launch a “routine arrangement of the annual training of the PLA Navy."

But Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese, on a visit to the Solomon Islands called it a "provocative act by China which does destabilise the region,” during a joint press conference with the Solomon’s PM Mathew Wale, who remarked that he launched a “strong protest" with the Chinese ambassador.

The US State Department expressed concern. According to the Japan Times, Tokyo had “strongly urged” China to refrain from the test prior to the launch, and on Wednesday, Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo on condemned the test near its waters.

Clive Hamilton, the Australia-based author of Hidden Hand, a book that describes China’s growing influence around the world, points out that the missile launch comes immediately after Australia signed a mutual defence pact with Fiji.

"China is afraid that its push to gain more influence in and over Pacific nations is facing serious pushback,” he told RFI.

“This missile test has the appearance of a deliberate rebuke to Pacific Island states and Australia for undertaking more systematic military and economic cooperation,” he says.

The missile tests also shows the “urgent need for Australia to build its military capability” in the Pacific, according to Hamilton, and "far from intimidating Pacific island states out of military cooperation with Australia, it may well force them to become closer to Australia and by implication also New Zealand and the United States."

According to defconlevel.com, an organisation consisting of intelligence analysts and nuclear specialists, China currently disposes of some 600 nuclear war heads, and 6 Jin type 094 nuclear submarines, capable of launching strategic missiles.

'Drive the US out'

The Chinese missile test coincides with the “Joint Sea-2026” naval exercises that performed with Russia, that will continue through July 13.

The naval exercise are aimed at "complicating United States maritime superiority” in the Pacific theatre, according to defence watchdog Defence Security Asia, while intensifies "Indo-Pacific military competition surrounding Taiwan” with countries like Australia, Japan and the Philippines.

According to Hamilton, the “Joint Sea-2026” drills "reflect China's broader attempts, in its alliances with Russia and Iran and North Korea to project a more formidable and more threatening military capability.” and part of a "longer term strategy to drive the US out of the Western Pacific.”

However, Dillon points out that the relationship between China and Russia remains “complex,” and in spite of China’s covert support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, there has been “a lot of tension” between the two countries - including not fully resolved historical territorial claims and Russia’s concern about a growing influx of Chinese in eastern Siberia.

Territorial dispute between China and Russia risks clouding friendly future

"China is wanting to demonstrate that it is ahead (of Russia) in missile terms,” according to Dillon.

Security pact

France, because of its territories New Caledonia and French Polynesia, is also a pacific power that worries about China’s growing military activities in the region; officially New Caledonia’s ocean territory borders that of the Solomon Islands, that currently enjoys a security pact with China.

China expands military might as far as French borders with Solomon Islands pact

But even for the Solomon Islands, the ICBM test was a step too far: “China's a good friend of Solomon Islands - but this is not something a friend does,” according to its PM Mathew Wale.

“We don't want to see any more countries, China, America, testing ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. That's the bottom line,” he said.

While Australia is looking to improve ties with the island nation, Hamilton also stresses that ties with France can be improved. “It could be "beneficial if Australia decided to spend a substantial sum buying some armaments from France.”

In 2021, Canberra joined the AUKUS military alliance with the US and the UK and cancelled a billion Euro submarine deal with Paris, leaving relations with France today “still fairly cool” in spite of a new government. Under the AUKUS deal, the US will sell nuclear submarines to Australia.

Former admiral urges Australia to renege on Aukus deal and buy French subs

Buying French arms could "help repair the relationship” with Canberra, says Hamilton, which would be advantageous in the face of China’s growing military might in the region.