Is the peso trading at its true rate? The results of our latest MND Peso Index™

THE MND PESO INDEX™

Tracking the exchange rate people actually experience

MND Intelligence · Third edition

Welcome to the third edition of the MND Peso Index™, part of the MND Intelligence™ suite of data products developed by Mexico News Daily.

The MND Peso Index™ is a monthly purchasing power parity measure that assesses whether the Mexican peso is overvalued or undervalued against the US dollar by comparing the prices of a standardized basket of 20 goods and services in Mexico and Dallas, Texas.

Our headline finding for June 2026 indicates that the peso was overvalued against the dollar by 2.91%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points compared to the 4.03% overvaluation we determined for May.

For a detailed explanation of the purpose of the MND Peso Index™, the makeup of the basket and more, please refer to our previous index article. You can read even more about the index in our introductory article published in early May.

What did the MND Peso Index™ tell us in May 2026?

In June 2026, the MND Peso Index™ suggests that the USD:MXN exchange rate on the date we collected prices in various Mexican cities and in Dallas, Texas, overvalued the Mexican peso by 2.91%.

The Mexican and Dallas prices were collected on June 29, 2026. The mean implied exchange rate across all 20 items — the MND Peso Rate — came in at 18.01 pesos per dollar, whereas the Banxico FIX rate on May 26 was 17.50 pesos per dollar.

The gap between those two figures indicates that the peso — at a rate of 17.50 to the US dollar — was overvalued by 2.91% in late June.

In other words, the USD:MXN exchange rate — if it reflected the rate at which the peso could buy the basket’s goods and services in Mexico at the same dollar prices as in the United States — would be 18.01.

In the table below, you can see the Mexico and U.S. prices for all 20 goods and services in the basket, the total costs of the two baskets, the implied exchange rate for each item, the MND Peso Rate (ie., the overall implied rate), the Banxico FIX rate on the date prices were collected and the overvaluation assessment for the peso.

Why did the peso’s ‘overvalued’ assessment decrease between May and June?

The MND Peso Rate — the mean implied exchange rate — barely changed between May and June, declining by just one centavo from 18.02 to 18.01.

By contrast, the difference in the Banxico USD:MXN fix rate we used in May (17.32) and that we used in June (17.50) was 18 centavos. Therefore, the decline in the overvaluation assessment for the peso was almost entirely due to the currency’s depreciation against the dollar.

The peso depreciated by 1.02% between the date on which we collected prices in late May and the date on which we collected prices in late June. The 1.12-percentage-point reduction in the overvaluation assessment for the peso was helped only ever so slightly by the change in the MND Peso Rate from 18.02 to 18.01.

The MND Peso Index™ has now found the peso to be overvalued during 3 consecutive months

Through the use of the MND Peso Index™, we have now determined that the peso was overvalued against the US dollar by 2.83% in late April, 4.03% in late May and 2.91% in late June.

The difference between the lowest overvaluation assessment and the highest is just 1.2 percentage points.

Our most recent MND Peso Rate (mean implied rate) — 18.01 — is just 23 cents, or 1.3%, higher than where foreign exchange (FX) experts who were recently polled by Reuters think the USD:MXN rate will be at the start of July 2027. The median estimate of 24 FX specialists polled by Reuters is that the USD:MXN exchange rate will be 17.78 on July 1, 2027.

So far in 2026, the peso has appreciated 2.8% against the US dollar. It closed at 18.00 to the greenback on the final day of 2025, according to the Bank of Mexico, while the closing USD:MXN rate on Tuesday July 7 was 17.51.

* Price sources: Mexico prices were collected from the websites and apps of Walmart México, Costco México, AutoZone México, Telmex, Cinépolis, Petco México, and the Mexican outlets of McDonald’s, Starbucks, Netflix and Planet Fitness. Dallas prices were collected from their U.S. equivalents. The Banxico FIX rate of 17.50 published on June 29, 2026 was used as the official exchange rate reference.

Mexico News Daily