Coalition holds majority in latest Taxpayers' Union Poll

The coalition would still have the numbers to form a government, albeit narrowly, according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.

For the third consecutive poll, the coalition would have 62 seats to the opposition's 58.

Labour is still out in front, but a slight slip has put the party on its lowest result in this poll since October 2025.

The party is on 31.5 percent, but has dropped 0.7 points.

National is up 0.4 points to 30.5 percent.

New Zealand First is on 10.8 percent, down 0.6 points.

The Greens have taken the biggest hit, down 1.1 points to 10.4 percent.

ACT is on 6.9 percent, down 0.9 points.

Te Pāti Māori is on 3.4 percent, up 0.3 points.

In terms of seats in the House, the results mean Labour would gain one (41 seats) while the Greens would lose one (13 seats). Similarly, National would gain one (39 seats) while ACT would lose one (9 seats).

New Zealand First (14 seats) and Te Pāti Māori (4 seats) are unchanged.

This means the total number of seats for the coalition and opposition blocs remains the same.

This poll assumes there would be no overhang seats for National or Te Pāti Māori.

For the minor parties, The Opportunity Party is on 3.3 percent (up 0.1 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.8 percent (up 0.5 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.4 percent (up 0.2 points).

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Chris Hipkins has jumped 2.1 points up to 19.2 percent, while Christopher Luxon has gained 0.3 points to 19.1 percent.

Winston Peters is on 11.8 percent (down 1 point), David Seymour is on 5.1 percent (down 1.2 points), and Chlöe Swarbrick is on 4.6 percent (down 3.5 points).

Since the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, parties have begun to roll out policies thick and fast.

National has unveiled its compulsory KiwiSaver and solar financing policies, Labour has detailed its plans to expand Apprenticeship Boost and bring back universal free prescriptions, and the Greens have set out their tax plan.

ACT has proposed tightening up the medical certification for health-related benefits and consolidating government agencies, and New Zealand First has revealed it will campaign on restricting voting rights to citizens only and disestablishing Auckland Council's Independent Māori Statutory Board.

The Greens' oceans and rivers policy, ACT's three-strikes burglary policy, Labour's own solar policy announcement have all come after the polling period.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 1 and Sunday 5 July, 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The number of people undecided on the party vote question was 6.6 percent.