As Ram Temple donation scandal unfolds, what is at stake for BJP

The unprecedented allegation of “chanda chori”, or donation theft, at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya threatens to escalate into an issue which, unless defused, could have a bearing on the outcome of the UP Assembly elections next year.

The election battle is not just about Uttar Pradesh. Having ensured the outright victory of the BJP in 2014 and 2019, as well as the slump in 2024, UP is expected once again to decide the outcome of the Lok Sabha election battle in 2029. It may also determine the contours of a post-Narendra Modi era, helping to decide the fortunes of the Prime Minister’s potential successors, as and when it takes place.

The political import of UP is widely understood. Eight of the 14 Prime Ministers were from UP. The Nehru-Gandhi family, which gave the country three PMs, are Kashmiri Pandits who made UP their karmabhoomi (place of action). Modi is from Gujarat, but, realising UP’s importance, he has chosen to retain Varanasi as his constituency.

An RSS old-timer summed up the concerns of many in the Sangh Parivar today after the alleged theft in Ayodhya, saying, “If UP slips out of the BJP’s hands, other states may well start to go out of its control one by one.”

The movement for the Ram Temple — the Ram Janmabhoomi movement — enabled the BJP’s rise in national politics. The temple is not like any other. It has deeply affected the Hindu psyche in large parts of the country and the movement to build the temple on the spot where the Babri Masjid once existed has symbolised for many an assertion of Hindu identity.

SP sees a chance

The alleged embezzlement of funds has led to many devotees feeling let down, giving the BJP’s opponents a leg-up. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav was quick to seize the opportunity as soon as the information about the alleged theft leaked, demanding the return of the “stolen” money, gold and silver to devotees.

Akhilesh had been looking for ways to give his campaign a newness which goes beyond his PDA — Pichhda (backward classes), Dalit, Alpsankhyak (minorities) — politics. It worked wonders for him in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, giving him 37 Lok Sabha seats and bringing down the BJP’s tally from 62 to 33. This result robbed the BJP of an absolute majority in Parliament. But rarely does the same formula work twice over. Akhilesh has been trying to throw his net wider this time. The Brahmin conclave his party held recently shows he would like to attract the powerful Brahmin community to his side. In UP, Brahmins are estimated to constitute 9-10% of the population and have exercised an influence far beyond their numbers.

The continuing domination of Rajputs in UP affairs under Yogi Adityanath’s stewardship, the recent UGC norms favouring the backward classes, the BJP’s decision to agree to a caste census, and now the alleged embezzlement scandal have made the Brahmins and some other upper castes unhappy. And yet, it is also known that the Brahmins, though disgruntled from time to time over the years, have stayed by the BJP’s side since the Ram Temple movement began. Can Akhilesh, with the Congress’s help, breach their ranks this time?

To reinforce his Hindu credentials, the SP president is building a Kedareshwar Mahadev Temple in his home turf of Saifai that is modelled on the Kedarnath shrine. The Saifai temple is expected to be opened soon and Akhilesh has said he plans to visit the Ram Temple after that.

All eyes on Adityanath

There is deep concern in the Sangh that the allegations should not lead to a “moh bhang (disillusionment)” about Hindutva itself among the middle classes, said an RSS veteran.

Even though it is the RSS that has suffered a setback and the resignations of Shri Ram Janmbhoomi Teerth Kshetra Trust general secretary and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Champat Rai and trustee Anil Mishra have been accepted, ironically, the stakes may be the highest for Yogi Adityanath.

For Adityanath, the exposé could not have come at a worse time, with elections due in the state eight months down the line. A third straight victory will further strengthen his position, while if he just scrapes through, he will remain one among the many BJP CMs. Adityanath has an appeal outside Uttar Pradesh, and though he is not directly involved in the Trust, all eyes are now on how he, as the state’s helmsman, handles the crisis.

The UP CM was quick to set up a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to probe the theft, with an FIR registered based on its interim report. As of now, eight people have been arrested in connection with the alleged theft.

Adityanath has already played the Mathura card, renewing the call for the “liberation” of the Krishna Janmabhoomi — another disputed site in the middle of judicial proceedings — while facing Akhilesh’s attacks. This is something the SP chief may find difficult to navigate as Mathura could divide the Yadavs, his party’s core base. The Yadavs are devotees of Lord Krishna and call themselves Yaduvanshis, Krishna’s lineage.

The BJP’s central leadership may not want to give Adityanath too long a rope. And yet, winning UP is of critical importance for the BJP to maintain the momentum for 2029. It’s early days yet to say which way the cookie will crumble. Ultimately, it will depend on how effectively the UP CM and the RSS can control the narrative and undo the damage.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide.)